Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 3rd)
| Place | Party | Leader | Seats | AVG | April Results | Difference |
| 1st | Likud | Netanyahu | 31 | 31 | 39 | -8 |
| 2nd | Blue & White | Gantz | 30 | 30 | 35 | -5 |
| 3rd | The Joint List | Odeh | 11 | 10.8 | 10 | 0.8 |
| 4th | Yamina | Shaked | 11 | 10.6 | 5 | 5.6 |
| 5th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 10 | 9.9 | 5 | 4.9 |
| 6th | Democratic Union | Horwitz | 7 | 7.3 | 4 | 3.3 |
| 7th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 7 | 7.3 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 8th | Shas | Deri | 7 | 7.2 | 8 | -0.8 |
| 9th | Labor | Peretz | 6 | 5.9 | 6 | -0.1 |
| 10th | Other | Ben Gvir/Etc. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM | 56 | 56.1 | 60 | -3.9 | ||
| Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM | 54 | 54 | 55 | -1 | ||
| Pushing Unity Government | 10 | 9.9 | 5 | 4.9 |
Note #1: This average is based on the last 24 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 3 (last month): 8 Midgam, 5 Smith, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Teleseker, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls & 0 Panels.
Note #2: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. The Zehut list has agreed to resign but has yet to do so officially.
Note #3: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. Shas & UTJ are expected to sign before the deadline on September 6th. The Joint List announced they will not sign with any other list.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
At the moment it looks like we have a stalemate.
If however Otzma were to cross the threshold that would be a gamechanger as it would give the right another 4 seats.
I do not think your math works on two counts. First, you need 61, not 60. Second some of the 4 seats going to Otzma would come from right wing parties. Jeremy, could you please comment on the mechanics?
Martin,
I take your point completely. Jeremy’s polling average is giving the Charedim 14 seats between them. If you check the polling averages of the previous election the Charedim never got more then 14 seats (in fact Shass was polling at 6 seats). It is therefore not unthinkable to suggest that the Charedim will again get 16 seats in this election. I therefore do believe that if Otzma cross the threshold we could end up with 61-62 seats for the right wing/religious parties.