Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Jan 11-Jan 18 2015) of 9 polls from 5 polling companies (3 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 0 Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.8 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 23.2 (24.0) [18] Likud

3rd 16.2 (15.3) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.6 (10.3) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.8 (08.6) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.3 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.0) [10] Shas

8th 06.0 (06.6) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

9th 05.6 (06.1) [06] Meretz

10th 03.1 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

68.7 (68.8) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.2 (51.1) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 6 to week 7:            

Labor-Livni replaces Likud as the largest party.

Shas jumps from 9^th to 7^th, while Yisrael Beitenu drops to 8^th and Meretz to 9^th.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi gained .9 and Shas gained .6.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.8, Yesh Atid lost 0.7., Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.6.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 7:

1 – The post-primary bump: Labor-Livni 24.8, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.2.

Same headline as last week. The two parties that gained the most ground this week both had mid-week primaries. For the last two weeks the post-primary bump has helped Likud, this week the bump went to the other two democratic parties that have open primaries. The public loves primaries, no matter the result. Just like Likud, Labor and Bayit Yehudi chose more or less the same people they voted for two years ago. In Labor, Likud and Bayit Yehudi there are reserved slots that will balance their lists with new faces.

2 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 8.8, Yisrael Beitenu 6.0

The center is splintered and shrinking. There will be no joint list between the three center parties. Yesh Atid has dropped out of double digits again and we still don’t know the order of their list. Koolanu announced the order of their top 10 to little fanfare. Yisrael Beitenu keeps losing ground and is now about two seats from falling under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu 2013: #2 Minister Shamir, #3 Minister Landau, #5 Minister Aharonovich, #7 Deputy Minister Kirshenbaum, #8 Chairman Rotem. – All gone for 2015.

Yisrael Beitenu 2015: Foreign Minister Liberman, MK Levi-Abukasis, Minister Landver and a journalist from Channel 20.

3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.3, Shas 6.6, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

It is very hard for people to explain how Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues to gain as a result. The answer is that these people really  feel like they don’t have anywhere else to turn to (yet). Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 8 of the 9 polls taken this week, which means he will start talking to former MK Ben Ari about a joint list.

4 – Meretz 5.6 and the United Arab List

Remember when Meretz was in double digits? Now they are within the margin of error in some polls of falling under the threshold. Their Central Committee will choose their next list this week. Meretz is hoping their Central Committee vote will give them the same type of bump Labor enjoyed after their primary this week.

The Hadash & Balad Central Committees chose their lists as we get closer to the merger deadline.

5 – The Bloc War and the President Mandate

People keep writing to me that Herzog has the best chance to form a coalition. They give me a long list of the people in the know that agree with them. The problem is that the numbers don’t add up. Anything can happen in the world of politics. But, you can’t honestly tell me that it is more likely that the Haredim are going to sit in a coalition with Yesh Atid than Yesh Atid sitting in a coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu. You need 61 votes to approve a new coalition and let’s face it – Koolanu & Yisrael Beitenu would join either coalition.

A Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Meretz coalition is 54.8.
A Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-UTJ-Shas-Yisrael Beitenu coalition (without Yishai passing, or adding Yesh Atid) is 68.7.

When a Herzog coalition becomes viable I will list it.

In the last two terms President Shimon Peres did not want to give the mandate to form the government to Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem for him was that he had to. If the combined seat total of the party leaders that nominate an individual for Prime Minister comes out to 61 (or more), the President has to give the mandate to that person. It is possible that a party like Koolanu will not nominate someone for Prime Minister to give them more negotiation power, but maybe a creditable journalist should get a clear answer on that question before assuming that is how things will be.

6 – Week 8 Preview

Less than two weeks to finalize Knesset lists. Yesh Atid needs to pick a list. Likud, Labor & Bayit Yehudi all have reserved slots to fill. Meretz’s Central Committee chooses their list. United Arab List or bust? Is this the last full week we will have to poll Kadima? There are many story-lines to follow this week.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #6 (week of Jan 4-Jan 10 2015) of 6 polls from 4 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

2nd 23.6 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

3rd 15.3 (16.0) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 10.3 (09.1) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.6 (09.0) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.5 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.7) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

8th 06.1 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 06.0 (05.8) [10] Shas

10th 03.1 (03.3) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.1) [02] Kadima

68.8 (69.6) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.1 (50.3) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 5 to week 6:             

Likud replaces Labor-Livni as the largest party.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats, Likud gained .8 and Shas gained .2.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.7, Koolanu lost 0.4, Meretz dropped 0.4.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 6:

1 – The post-primary bump: Likud 24.0 and Labor-Livni 23.6.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud regained their #1 position thanks to a post-primary surge. The Likud primary produced more or less the same list, noting the exception of former Kadima MK Dichter replacing hardliner MK Feiglin in the top 26 spots reserved on the national list. Likud without Feiglin, who resigned from the party, is enjoying a bump. Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovelly who placed #26 is now within the margin of error of returning as an MK.

The combined Labor-Livni list has stood its ground in the polls. Herzog is hoping for a Labor post-primary bump this week, but that will most likely be dependent on what list Labor voters choose. Livni has less than three weeks to decide on her party’s reserved slots and is expected to take into account the result of the Labor primary. Livni is happy that her former #2 Amram Mitzna labeling her as a dictator did not harm the joint list in the polls.

2 – Double Digits: Bayit Yehudi 15.3 and Yesh Atid 10.3

For the last two weeks Bayit Yehudi was the only other party in double digits, but that changes this week after Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats. Although Yair Lapid will be the first to promote his sudden surge, things must be put into perspective. Yesh Atid, the largest party in the current Knesset with 19 seats, would lose about half its strength. Bayit Yehudi would net a gain of three-seats.

3 – Going Down: Koolanu 8.6, Yisrael Beitenu 6.6 and Meretz 6.1

What do these three parties have in common? They all lost strength this week – again. Moshe Kahlon’s Koolanu list seems to drop every time he announces another figure. Perhaps Kahlon should consider cloning himself or getting a better internal pollster. Yisrael Beitenu’s corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Homeland Security Minister Aharonovich is the latest Yisrael Beitenu Minister to announce he will not run for re-election. Zahava Gal-On, who ran unopposed, was re-appointed as Meretz leader. Meretz seems to be more focused on its internal central committee election for its Knesset slate than in the general election campaign.

4 – Haredim: UTJ 7.5, Shas 6.0, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

In most polls UTJ is at 7-8 seats and it will likely be the case until Election Day. Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues its slow climb up.  Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 5 of the 6 polls taken this week.

5 – Blocs: 68.8 vs 51.1

The combined Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-UTJ-Shas bloc has gradually dropped over the last 6 weeks. Yishai not passing the threshold in most polls lowers the combined totals of Netanyahu’s potential partners.

6 – Week 7 Preview

Bayit Yehudi and Labor will be focused on their primaries. Kahlon will reveal more candidates. Additional Yisrael Beitenu MKs will most likely retire. Expect more drama in Shas now that Deri is back. We should grow closer to a United Arab List which means we should expect a few nasty headlines. Netanyahu will consider more names for his two reserved slots by leaking them to the public. Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz should surface after the Labor primary to ask Herzog for Defense Minister again in return for his 2-seats of campaign funding.