Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Jan 11-Jan 18 2015) of 9 polls from 5 polling companies (3 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 0 Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)
(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]
1st 24.8 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni
2nd 23.2 (24.0) [18] Likud
3rd 16.2 (15.3) [11] Bayit Yehudi
4th 09.6 (10.3) [19] Yesh Atid
5th 08.8 (08.6) [–] Koolanu
6th 07.3 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7th 06.6 (06.0) [10] Shas
8th 06.0 (06.6) [13] Yisrael Beitenu
9th 05.6 (06.1) [06] Meretz
10th 03.1 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)
11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)
12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima
68.7 (68.8) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51.2 (51.1) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Changes from week 6 to week 7:
Labor-Livni replaces Likud as the largest party.
Shas jumps from 9th to 7th, while Yisrael Beitenu drops to 8th and Meretz to 9th.
Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi gained .9 and Shas gained .6.
Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.8, Yesh Atid lost 0.7., Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.6.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 7:
1 – The post-primary bump: Labor-Livni 24.8, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.2.
Same headline as last week. The two parties that gained the most ground this week both had mid-week primaries. For the last two weeks the post-primary bump has helped Likud, this week the bump went to the other two democratic parties that have open primaries. The public loves primaries, no matter the result. Just like Likud, Labor and Bayit Yehudi chose more or less the same people they voted for two years ago. In Labor, Likud and Bayit Yehudi there are reserved slots that will balance their lists with new faces.
2 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 8.8, Yisrael Beitenu 6.0
The center is splintered and shrinking. There will be no joint list between the three center parties. Yesh Atid has dropped out of double digits again and we still don’t know the order of their list. Koolanu announced the order of their top 10 to little fanfare. Yisrael Beitenu keeps losing ground and is now about two seats from falling under the threshold.
Yisrael Beitenu 2013: #2 Minister Shamir, #3 Minister Landau, #5 Minister Aharonovich, #7 Deputy Minister Kirshenbaum, #8 Chairman Rotem. – All gone for 2015.
Yisrael Beitenu 2015: Foreign Minister Liberman, MK Levi-Abukasis, Minister Landver and a journalist from Channel 20.
3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.3, Shas 6.6, Ha’am Itanu 3.1
It is very hard for people to explain how Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues to gain as a result. The answer is that these people really feel like they don’t have anywhere else to turn to (yet). Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 8 of the 9 polls taken this week, which means he will start talking to former MK Ben Ari about a joint list.
4 – Meretz 5.6 and the United Arab List
Remember when Meretz was in double digits? Now they are within the margin of error in some polls of falling under the threshold. Their Central Committee will choose their next list this week. Meretz is hoping their Central Committee vote will give them the same type of bump Labor enjoyed after their primary this week.
The Hadash & Balad Central Committees chose their lists as we get closer to the merger deadline.
5 – The Bloc War and the President Mandate
People keep writing to me that Herzog has the best chance to form a coalition. They give me a long list of the people in the know that agree with them. The problem is that the numbers don’t add up. Anything can happen in the world of politics. But, you can’t honestly tell me that it is more likely that the Haredim are going to sit in a coalition with Yesh Atid than Yesh Atid sitting in a coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu. You need 61 votes to approve a new coalition and let’s face it – Koolanu & Yisrael Beitenu would join either coalition.
A Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Meretz coalition is 54.8.
A Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-UTJ-Shas-Yisrael Beitenu coalition (without Yishai passing, or adding Yesh Atid) is 68.7.
When a Herzog coalition becomes viable I will list it.
In the last two terms President Shimon Peres did not want to give the mandate to form the government to Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem for him was that he had to. If the combined seat total of the party leaders that nominate an individual for Prime Minister comes out to 61 (or more), the President has to give the mandate to that person. It is possible that a party like Koolanu will not nominate someone for Prime Minister to give them more negotiation power, but maybe a creditable journalist should get a clear answer on that question before assuming that is how things will be.
6 – Week 8 Preview
Less than two weeks to finalize Knesset lists. Yesh Atid needs to pick a list. Likud, Labor & Bayit Yehudi all have reserved slots to fill. Meretz’s Central Committee chooses their list. United Arab List or bust? Is this the last full week we will have to poll Kadima? There are many story-lines to follow this week.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
‘creditable journalist should get a clear answer ‘
What are you hinting at Jeremy?
תודה thanks, גדעון אריאל Gidon Ariel 054-5665037 gidon.ariel@gmail.com
Thanks Jeremy,
You can see a graph of the Poll of Polls, showing movement for each party from week to week, here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d49cWZJMC3-5ZcaNh6MeVVg-EMdEPdRuaMZS3cPygeI/edit?usp=sharing
Comments suggestions and analysis welcome.
I don’t understand why people don’t understand Shas.
What is the difficulty in accepting that the Great Late Rav Ovadia has created a core Sephardi constituency comparable to UTJ.
What is the difficulty in accepting that Shas is the natural party of most of this constituency. It is RaV Ovadia’s constituency.
True some have flown the coop to Yishai but not the majority. As for Yishai, had Ariel joined him, they could have been successful in pulling votes from Bayit Yehudi and got to 6 or 7 seats in my estimation. But Ben Ari? Yishai is like to lose as much as he gains from that.
Shas is issue is how much of the soft 1/3 non core of its constituency it can pull back by election time. I will take the plunge and say half of it and I would be surprised when the final votes are in if they do not get at least 1 or 2 more mandates than UTJ.
The problem with most analysts is they are applying secular logic to Shas which is understandable. I believe wrongly though, many Sephardim and their Rabbis believed that Deri was the victim of an establishment plot and many still do.
The other thing is that the only Rabbi that has clout with Shas voters who has come out for Yishai is Rav Mazuz. When serious electioneering gets under way and it is clear that Shas has the support of all the other major Sephardi Rabbis such as the Abuhatzeira’s this will carry weight.
Of course I could be reading this matter just as wrongly as I think the other analysts are and only the election results will tell us.
I also think there is no way Labour will be in the next government unless Likud decides to do an underhanded deal and cut out Bayit Yehudi from the next government
It looks like Lieberman shut the door on joining a Herzog coalition. He announced his party won’t sit with Meretz and Herzog realistically needs Meretz and Israel Beitenu. His numbers are even more limited than that 54.8 number listed above without Israel Beitenu. The Haredi and Yesh Atid are pretty much mutually exclusive. I’m not convinced Kahlon would agree to sit in a leftist coalition either. He wants to break up (i.e. privatize) the Israeli Land Authority like he did with telecoms. His best chance to accomplish this long overdue reform is in a right-wing coalition.
Netanyahu has two realistic options right now: a coalition of all right-religious (68-70 MKs) or Yesh Atid in the coalition (around 64 MKs) without the Haredi.
Will Yishai find another party to ally with before the deadline? A temporary alliance with Otzma seems like a good decision for both considering their limited options. Of course, such a move would be too logical. Yishai probably still thinks that Ha’am Itanu has a chance at 4 or more MKs by themselves which they likely don’t. Otzma should be grateful to be in spot 4 and 5, since they have exactly zero chance of getting in without Ha’am Itanu. Other than meeting last week, it seems like they have no intention an election alliance at least so far. Egos will probably kill any chance of an alliance. A failure of an alliance means potentially 4-5 extra right-wing MKs won’t be in the Knesset which makes me want to pull my hair out in frustration.
What do you think of a (technical??) bloc of Bayit Yehudi and Yishai?
Any chance any more for a BY-Amsalem merger?If I were Bennett, I would give Amsalem one reserved spot and push up say Anat Roth to the second reserved spot. That would attract centrist (?) voters having stopped believing in the 2-state-solution and moderate sephardim hareidim voters. With those extra seats then maybe even Moshe Solomon and Dani Dayan would get in.
Won’t happen , Rav Mazuz has a very poor opinion of Bayit Yehudi’s religious credentials in the last government as do virtually all Sephardi Rabbi’s. His stated intention was to get Yishai to pull those religious voters away from Bennett. However without Ariel that idea will only have limited success.
Amsalem in Bayit Yehudi is theoretically possible. The 13th and 17th spots are reserved spots but apparently only for female candidates. I don’t know if those seat must go to women or if it is just a vague intention. In December Amsallem asked to join Bayit Yehudi but it didn’t go anywhere. I don’t know what specific issues prevented him from joining Bayit Yehudi. (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188765#.VL4KSkfF-So)
There was no follow-up to the story until late December when it appears he will be running his own party. His party polled even worse than Otzma in the last election which means those votes are flushed away. Amsallem and Yishai won’t ally either even they’re both orphans of Shas.
Presumably Kahlon would be in a position to dictate terms to Herzog if he joins a centre-left-Arab coalition.
But yah, obviously Kahlon seems much more likely to go right than left.
Result of this:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/315088
New list??
“A Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Meretz coalition is 54.8.”
Small nitpick here, but with the Arab parties that becomes 65.8. I don’t think that configuration is all that likely though, just pointing out the math.
Ryan – I think it’d be a bit easier to read without the shading beneath.
But we have had Lieberman saying he will definitely not sit in a coalition with Meretz so am not sure I see any maths here.
Yah, I agree. I don’t think any reasonable observe can suggest that a Herzog led coalition is the most likely outcome right now. It’s possible, sure, but a lot of things are possible.
As an outsider, I have a question though – how likely would it be for Meretz to support a Labor-Livni government without being formally included in the government?
Even if the answer is “likely” it’s still a lot of ifs though. Koolanu and Yisrael Beitenu seem much more likely to join a coalition of the right than of the left.
A few thoughts:
(1) If you look at the bottom line summary, i.e., Right-Religious vs Center-Left-Arab, it looks like there’s been a dramatic shift to the right. But it seems like that may be an artifact of considering Koolanu “right” rather than “center.” Admittedly, it may be slightly more to the right than, say Yesh Atid, particularly on security issues, but if you count Koolanu as “center,” suddenly it looks like the electorate is pretty much where it was at the last election — the right-religious vs. center-left split looks almost like the 61-59 it was last time. Which brings me to a question. Is there any polling showing where Koolanu is pulling its votes from? I wouldn’t be at all shocked if most are from Yesh Atid — perhaps the 9 mandates or so they are losing since last election is mostly (all?) where Koolanu is getting its mandates.
(2) I agree that its easier to see Netanyahu putting together a stable coalition than Herzog given the current numbers. But it still may depend heavily on who gets first crack. My recollection is that the President consults with each party before asking someone to try to form a government, but also, that typically the largest party gets first crack. Which brings me to another question: how strong is the “presumption” that the largest party gets the first shot? How many examples are there of the President giving the first shot to the party that finishes second? Is this solely something that is within the President’s discretion? Does the fact that the current President is a former Likudnik potentially play a role?
(3) Given the current numbers, the story line the three largest parties will be pitching is pretty clear. Labor-Livni will argue that if you are center-left and want to prevent another BB term, you need to vote for them, rather than Yesh Atid, Meretz, or an Arab party, because the only/best shot at stopping BB is for Labor to finish #1 potentially giving them first crack at forming a government. Similarly, Likud will argue that if you want to stop Herzog, and return BB to the PM’s office, you need to vote Likud, rather than BY or YB, or else Labor might get the first crack at a government. And if your Bayit Yehudi, you point to the coalition numbers and argue that since there’s no way for Herzog to form a viable coalition, BB will certainly be returned to the PM’s chair, so if you lean to the right, you ought to vote your conscience and support BY — to keep BB, and the coalition, from straying too far to the center.
(4) Everyone seems to rule out the Arab parties being part of the coalition, largely because it’s never happened. That seems right to me. It certainly is hard to imagine any government letting, e.g., Balad and Zoabi in (not that they’d want in anyway). But if the Arab parties don’t unite, I wonder if there’s an outside shot for Hadash to join.
1 – Polling has shown majority of Koolanu voters are right.
2 – Party leaders nominate PM candidate and President needs to give mandate to whoever has 61 or more MKs (see 2009). He can go with largest party (or a different party) if there is no candidate nominated by a majority.
4 – Even Hadash rules out joining a Zionist coalition.
They can nominate a PM without joining the coalition formally though.
That is true.
National Union in 2009 and UTJ+Shas in 2013 are great examples of that.
Just a thought, but Yesh Atid backed Netanyahu last time, right? So is it the electorate moving right, or Yesh Atid moving left?
In your “Bloc War” analysis, you move Koolanu and Yisrael Beitenu back and forth between Blocs. But you leave the United Arab List out altogether. No wonder Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid can’t win and Bibi always wins. The center/left “Anyone but Bibi,” as well as the Arab List, both need to reconsider this, or else it will be “Bibi Forever.”