Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Jan 11-Jan 18 2015) of 9 polls from 5 polling companies (3 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 0 Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.8 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 23.2 (24.0) [18] Likud

3rd 16.2 (15.3) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.6 (10.3) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.8 (08.6) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.3 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.0) [10] Shas

8th 06.0 (06.6) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

9th 05.6 (06.1) [06] Meretz

10th 03.1 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

68.7 (68.8) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.2 (51.1) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Changes from week 6 to week 7:            

Labor-Livni replaces Likud as the largest party.

Shas jumps from 9th to 7th, while Yisrael Beitenu drops to 8th and Meretz to 9th.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi gained .9 and Shas gained .6.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.8, Yesh Atid lost 0.7., Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.6.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 7:

1 – The post-primary bump: Labor-Livni 24.8, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.2.

Same headline as last week. The two parties that gained the most ground this week both had mid-week primaries. For the last two weeks the post-primary bump has helped Likud, this week the bump went to the other two democratic parties that have open primaries. The public loves primaries, no matter the result. Just like Likud, Labor and Bayit Yehudi chose more or less the same people they voted for two years ago. In Labor, Likud and Bayit Yehudi there are reserved slots that will balance their lists with new faces.

2 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 8.8, Yisrael Beitenu 6.0

The center is splintered and shrinking. There will be no joint list between the three center parties. Yesh Atid has dropped out of double digits again and we still don’t know the order of their list. Koolanu announced the order of their top 10 to little fanfare. Yisrael Beitenu keeps losing ground and is now about two seats from falling under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu 2013: #2 Minister Shamir, #3 Minister Landau, #5 Minister Aharonovich, #7 Deputy Minister Kirshenbaum, #8 Chairman Rotem. – All gone for 2015.

Yisrael Beitenu 2015: Foreign Minister Liberman, MK Levi-Abukasis, Minister Landver and a journalist from Channel 20.

3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.3, Shas 6.6, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

It is very hard for people to explain how Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues to gain as a result. The answer is that these people really  feel like they don’t have anywhere else to turn to (yet). Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 8 of the 9 polls taken this week, which means he will start talking to former MK Ben Ari about a joint list.

4 – Meretz 5.6 and the United Arab List

Remember when Meretz was in double digits? Now they are within the margin of error in some polls of falling under the threshold. Their Central Committee will choose their next list this week. Meretz is hoping their Central Committee vote will give them the same type of bump Labor enjoyed after their primary this week.

The Hadash & Balad Central Committees chose their lists as we get closer to the merger deadline.

5 – The Bloc War and the President Mandate

People keep writing to me that Herzog has the best chance to form a coalition. They give me a long list of the people in the know that agree with them. The problem is that the numbers don’t add up. Anything can happen in the world of politics. But, you can’t honestly tell me that it is more likely that the Haredim are going to sit in a coalition with Yesh Atid than Yesh Atid sitting in a coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu. You need 61 votes to approve a new coalition and let’s face it – Koolanu & Yisrael Beitenu would join either coalition.

A Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Meretz coalition is 54.8.
A Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-UTJ-Shas-Yisrael Beitenu coalition (without Yishai passing, or adding Yesh Atid) is 68.7.

When a Herzog coalition becomes viable I will list it.

In the last two terms President Shimon Peres did not want to give the mandate to form the government to Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem for him was that he had to. If the combined seat total of the party leaders that nominate an individual for Prime Minister comes out to 61 (or more), the President has to give the mandate to that person. It is possible that a party like Koolanu will not nominate someone for Prime Minister to give them more negotiation power, but maybe a creditable journalist should get a clear answer on that question before assuming that is how things will be.

6 – Week 8 Preview

Less than two weeks to finalize Knesset lists. Yesh Atid needs to pick a list. Likud, Labor & Bayit Yehudi all have reserved slots to fill. Meretz’s Central Committee chooses their list. United Arab List or bust? Is this the last full week we will have to poll Kadima? There are many story-lines to follow this week.

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