Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #9 (week of Jan 25-Jan 31 2015) of 9 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 25.2 (24.4) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

2nd 24.4 (24.0) [18] Likud

3rd 14.7 (15.6) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.0 (11.2) [11] United Arab List

5th 09.4 (09.6) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 07.7 (07.6) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.1 (07.4) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 07.1 (07.4) [10] Shas

9th 05.4 (05.8) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.3 (05.4) [06] Meretz

11th 03.3 (03.4) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

68.0 (69.4) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

52.0 (50.4) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Largest Gains: Zionist Union and United Arab List gained 0.8 seats each, Likud gained 0.4.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.9 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.4., Shas & UTJ lost 0.3 each.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 9:

1 – The Craziest week of polling – Unusual news cycle shifts and submitting of the lists

The four polls conducted earlier in the week had Zionist Union ahead, yet Likud led Labor in the average of the five polls conducted later in the week. Bayit Yehudi had a bad week in the polling department following the Eli Ochana saga. The news cycle week started with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s upcoming speech in Washington as the main headline and it slowly shifted towards security matters as the northern border heated up. Thursday’s news cycle was filled with drama as the last parties submitted their lists. The movement caused this week’s polls to jump from one side to another. Next week we will be looking at a full week of numbers following the publication of the final lists.

2 – The Collapse of the Center: Yesh Atid 9.4, Koolanu 7.7, Yisrael Beitenu 5.4

The center keeps shrinking. Yesh Atid, the largest party in the outgoing Knesset, is now polling as the 5^th largest party. Yesh Atid is frequently polling at 8 seats, but still manages a 9.4 average thanks to 4 of the 9 polls this week that still put them in double-digits. After facing weeks of declining polls, Lapid went with a very similar list to last time, just two new faces in his top 18.

Kahlon lost his #3 because she didn’t resign from her government job in time to run in the election, the Na Nach Nachman party stole the ‘Koolanu’ name for their party and Kahlon made a last minute decision to merge with new Kadima leader Hasoon for their 2 seats of party funding. Kahlon was averaging in double digits before he picked a name, a list to run with and started an actual campaign.

Another week has gone by, so Yisrael Beitenu has lost more support. Yisrael Beitenu is now polling 9^th with just 5.4 seats. Yisrael Beitenu finished with just 4 or 5 seats in a majority of polls conducted this week. Voters seem to still be confused about what Liberman stands for anymore.

3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.1, Shas 7.1, Yachad 3.3

UTJ submitted the same seven people from last time for their top seven spots this time. In the Shas shuffle Shas MKs Zeev, Amnon Cohen and Edri were forced into retirement. The other seven MKs were reordered to take the 2-8 spots after Shas leader Aryeh Deri. Yishai’s party Yachad passed the threshold in a third of the polls, including the only poll conducted after the Yishai-Marzel merger. I will expand on Yishai’s unlikely joint alliance list next week.

4 –United Arab List 12.0 and Meretz 5.3

The results of the first week of polling after the United Arab List was formed are in. Nine polls from six different polling companies all agree – 4^th place and 12 seats. For now the alliance is proving to be a fruitful endeavor. Meretz keeps slipping and is now polling 10^th. Meretz, who is polling a high of 6 this week, has failed so far in their attempt to convince leftist voters not to vote for the Zionist Union.

5 – 26 Lists and the 3.25% Threshold.

There are 26 lists running in this election and it looks like only 10 or 11 will pass the new threshold. 26 lists is the least number of lists running in an election since 1996 when Prime Minister Netanyahu was elected to his first term. Labor, United Arab List, Yesh Atid, UTJ, Meretz, Likud and Shas submitted 120 seats for this election; Bayit Yehudi submitted 110, Koolanu 33, Yisrael Beitenu 30 and Yachad 26.

6 – Week 9 Preview

Now that the final lists are in the polls will start to stabilize and the general election campaigns will start to kick into full gear. Next week’s average will prove to be interesting.