Panels conducted a poll that will be published by Maariv & Jerusalem Post on Feb 6 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [18] Likud
22 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
69 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Likud again showing more strongly, Yachad making the cut.
Is this because of backlash against the Bottlegate reporting or perceived interference from V2015 and OneVoice? Or is it just cannibalism of Bayit Yehudi after the balagan with Ohana?
Votes Coming from Bayit. People are scared Zionist camp will beat Likud and with 2 years left of Obama and left-wing Israeli gov can cause tremendous damage. Normally I would vote for smaller parties but not when the nations future is at stake as it would be under an Obama-Israeli Left alliance.
YB will not sit with Meretz, arab list
Shas, UTJ will not sit with YA
Kulanu – who knows?
All this means that a leftist-center government is in practice impossible. Thus the only important thing from a right-wing perspective is Likud+BY. Of course it is favorable to have a near equal balance between Likud and BY (or BY bigger than Likud – which probably will not happen!). This will also restrain Bibi if he wants to take in YA/Labor.
THUS it is no shame to vote for BY instead of Likud!
In regards to Likud and the Zionist Union all these polls are somewhat misleading. The Likud and Bayit Yehudi are really one bloc just as is Meretz and the Zionist Union. We rather need to look at how those 2 blocs are performing. Since the beginning of 2014 Likud + BY have fluctuated between 35 and 42 so 39 is ok. However ZU + Meretz have fluctuated between 27 and 31 therefore 28 is not brilliant.
Good point. Note also that meretz is at about 5, down from 7 in the past month or so. If they continue to slide, they may not make it.
That would be great and really hurt the arab/leftist/center bloc!
In regards to blocs. We can take it one stage further. The Arabs will only support the ZU + Meretz bloc which will give them 40. Yachad will only support the Likud + BY bloc which will give them 43 and the advantage. With Yachad and Meretz both struggling to cross the finishing line. This election is much closer then most of us realise !!!
Notice that Yesh Atid is up in this poll too though. The YA+ZU+Meretz numbers are pretty stable.
What complicates things is that there’s also YA/Koolanu movement at times.
Read Livni’s and Deri’s lips carefully. One rules out a narrow left government but warns against a narrow right coalition; the other refuses to sit in a Bibi/Bennett coalition. Both can climb off their tree for a Bibi led coalition that excludes Bennett. That would make 2 of 3 Haredi parties, the President of Israel, and perhaps even the PM’s wife happy.
That’d be 22+26+6=54 seats. Who else would you see joining? UTJ and Koolanu?
Likud/Zionist Camp/Kulanu/Shas/UTJ/ gets you a stable mid to high sixties – through in Lapid and its fairly blackmail proof…coalition would be somewhat left of center on social issues and slightly right of center on diplomatic issues and responsibly tough on security issues…in sure the Israeli consensus.
Such a coalition would be a disaster – how stop it? Right-wingers vote BY and sink Likud by moving 5+ seats to BY.
In the case of a unity government with Likud and HaMajané Hatzioni, and if the United Arab List got more MK´s than HaBait Hayehudi (is possible) Ayman Odeh (leader of Hadash and the first in the United Arab List) would be the leader of the opposition. No?
Except if after the elections the arab parties split in the Knesset in different parliamentary groups (such as before: Raam-Taal, Hadash and Balad), in which case the opposition leader would Bennet. This is correct Jeremy? Is it likely that the Arab parties split into several factions in the Knesset after the elections?
Avi
In your scenario. How exactly is the very small issue of sharing the burden resolved.
Come up with a realistic solution then we will all support yo as the next PM.
Democracies work best through compromise and never acheive perfection; governments of the ideologically pure are recipes for disaster (bibi’s first government?).