Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 706 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Yisrael HaYom & I24 News that was published on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted Feb 6-7 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
14 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
11 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
57 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
63 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
29 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
17 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:
03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
03 [01] Taal (Tibi)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
02 [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
02 [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
02 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
02 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
01 [06] Livni Party
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
47+17=64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
51+05=56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Note: I will update the results later to reflect the seat chart without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.
Scenario Poll #1: Gantz + Yaalon + Lapid + AshkenaziDistribution of seats without electoral threshold:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
42 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
35 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
29 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:
03 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
03 [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
03 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
03 [01] Taal (Tibi)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
03 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
01 [06] Livni Party
01 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
01 [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
50+11=61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
49+10=59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll #2: Gantz + Yaalon + Lapid + Ashkenazi, Labor + Meretz and Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
34 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
12 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
10 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
08 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:
03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [01] Taal (Tibi)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
02 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
02 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
02 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
00 [06] Livni Party
52+12=64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
52+04=56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Where do you place Israel Resilience on the political map?
55% Center, 28% Left, 17% Right
Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?
36% Netanyahu, 23% Other answers, 22% Gantz, 10% Lapid, 5% Bennett, 2% Gabbai, 2% Liberman
Who should lead the center-left bloc?
37% No one, 32% Gantz, 15% Lapid, 7% Livni, 5% Barak, 4% Zandberg
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 