Tag Archive: knesset


Top 20 Populated Cities Model: 2015 vs 2013

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 16 Comments
March 20, 2015
Party/City 2015 Seats 2015 AVG 2013 Seats AVG Tel Aviv Tel Aviv
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 4,209,467 3,792,742 261,344 244,901
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34% 18.19% 18%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38% 34.27% 24%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20% 3.18% 3%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33% 11.55% 21%
Kulanu 10 7.49% — — 6.88% —
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12% 3.36% 4%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75% 3.90% 6%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud 2.09% w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16% 1.07% 1%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55% 13.02% 14%
Party/City Jerusalem Jerusalem Haifa Haifa Rishon Rishon
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 255,286 241,139 149,560 139,363 137,810 125,345
Likud 24.24% 21% 20.74% 26% 29.98% 31%
Zionist Union 9.67% 9% 25.28% 22% 22.85% 21%
The Joint List 1.23% 1% 8.27% 7% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 4.21% 7% 11.25% 18% 14.40% 23%
Kulanu 4.68% — 8.49% — 11.44% —
Bayit Yehudi 8.33% 12% 5.37% 6% 5.25% 7%
Shas 11.95% 16% 2.23% 3% 2.97% 5%
Yisrael Beitenu 2.36% w/Likud 8.03% w/Likud 6.92% w/Likud
UTJ 21.13% 22% 3.27% 3% 0.67% 1%
Meretz 3.98% 4% 4.54% 5% 2.13% 2%
Party/City Petah Tikva Petah Tikva Ashdod Ashdod Netanya Netanya
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 124,400 111,194 113,203 103,274 105,468 92,694
Likud 28.15% 29% 31.49% 36% 33.54% 34%
Zionist Union 17.81% 16% 8.56% 10% 13.82% 13%
The Joint List 0.07% <1% 0.03% <1% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 11.69% 18% 7.78% 10% 10.46% 16%
Kulanu 9.52% — 7.61% — 11.18% —
Bayit Yehudi 10.71% 13% 4.83% 7% 6.43% 11%
Shas 5.58% 7% 10.53% 17% 7.77% 11%
Yisrael Beitenu 6.72% w/Likud 13.36% w/Likud 7.99% w/Likud
UTJ 3.87% 4% 9.83% 10% 2.77% 2%
Meretz 2.00% 2% 0.75% 1% 1.46% 2%
Party/City Holon Holon Beer Sheva Beer Sheva Ramat Gan Ramat Gan
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 102,064 93,248 97,153 85,611 85,126 80,182
Likud 31.19% 31% 37.69% 38% 22.96% 23%
Zionist Union 20.12% 19% 12.24% 13% 31.15% 24%
The Joint List 0.09% <1% 0.55% <1% 0.23% <1%
Yesh Atid 12.50% 20% 7.53% 11% 14.28% 23%
Kulanu 11.98% — 8.80% — 9.74% —
Bayit Yehudi 4.86% 6% 6.98% 12% 6.03% 7%
Shas 7.88% 11% 6.36% 13% 3.13% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 5.49% w/Likud 12.06% w/Likud 2.55% w/Likud
UTJ 0.62% <1% 0.70% 1% 0.98% 1%
Meretz 2.13% 3% 1.40% 2% 6.15% 7%
Party/City Bnei Brak Bnei Brak Rechovot Rechovot Bat Yam Bat Yam
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 78,621 75,147 69,382 62,147 68,204 63,960
Likud 4.57% 4% 27.18% 27% 33.36% 37%
Zionist Union 1.28% 1% 20.64% 19% 14.58% 16%
The Joint List 0.02% <1% 0.15% <1% 0.18% <1%
Yesh Atid 0.65% 1% 11.77% 17% 9.27% 15%
Kulanu 1.15% — 8.78% — 11.19% —
Bayit Yehudi 2.35% 4% 8.35% 11% 5.15% 7%
Shas 23.97% 25% 4.80% 8% 6.88% 12%
Yisrael Beitenu 0.68% w/Likud 5.26% w/Likud 12.88% w/Likud
UTJ 59.35% 60% 3.58% 4% 1.03% 1%
Meretz 0.20% <1% 3.76% 4% 1.42% 2%
Party/City Ashkelon Ashkelon Kfar Saba Kfar Saba Hertzlia Hertzlia
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 63,836 54,431 56,477 51,659 53,681 50,958
Likud 39.88% 42% 21.89% 23% 21.88% 22%
Zionist Union 9.72% 11% 34.94% 26% 34.45% 24%
The Joint List 0.08% <1% 0.19% <1% 0.19% <1%
Yesh Atid 6.60% 10% 14.32% 22% 14.98% 26%
Kulanu 8.37% — 7.88% — 8.54% —
Bayit Yehudi 5.68% 9% 5.57% 7% 4.16% 6%
Shas 6.58% 14% 2.43% 4% 2.85% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 15.12% w/Likud 3.39% w/Likud 2.67% w/Likud
UTJ 1.00% 1% 0.63% <1% 1.08% 1%
Meretz 0.89% 1% 5.98% 7% 6.51% 8%
Party/City Hadera Hadera Modiin Modiin Raanana Raanana
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 44,726 38,578 43,830 39,954 42,842 41,153
Likud 32.16% 34% 22.87% 23% 21.45% 19%
Zionist Union 15.86% 18% 29.06% 23% 32.95% 23%
The Joint List 0.31% <1% 0.08% <1% 0.11% <1%
Yesh Atid 9.83% 16% 18.01% 27% 14.18% 24%
Kulanu 15.75% — 8.12% — 6.73% —
Bayit Yehudi 5.04% 8% 10.56% 12% 10.91% 14%
Shas 6.09% 9% 1.25% 2% 2.06% 3%
Yisrael Beitenu 8.38% w/Likud 2.19% w/Likud 1.48% w/Likud
UTJ 1.69% 2% 0.58% <1% 1.20% 1%
Meretz 1.94% 2% 4.84% 6% 5.47% 7%
Party/City Bet Shemesh Bet Shemesh
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 33,878 29,593
Likud 26.72% 23%
Zionist Union 3.28% 4%
The Joint List 0.02% <1%
Yesh Atid 2.60% 4%
Kulanu 3.50% —
Bayit Yehudi 9.01% 14%
Shas 14.35% 18%
Yisrael Beitenu 3.90% w/Likud
UTJ 28.30% 28%
Meretz 0.48% 1%

Update: Party-by-Party High-Low

Likud
High – Ashkelon 39.88%, Beer Sheva 37.69%, Netanya 33.54%
Low – Bnei Brak 4.57%, Tel Aviv 18.19%, Haifa 20.74%

Zionist Union
High – Kfar Saba 34.94%, 34.45% Hertzlia Tel Aviv 34.27%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.28%, Bet Shemesh 3.28%, Ashdod 8.56%

The Joint List
High – Haifa 8.27%, Tel Aviv 3.18%, Jerusalem 1.23%
Low – All others under 1%

Yesh Atid
High – Modiin 18.01%, Hertzlia 14.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 14.40%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.65%, Bet Shemesh 2.60%, Jerusalem 4.21%

Kulanu
High – Hadera 15.75%, Holon 11.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 11.44%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.15%, Bet Shemesh 3.50%, Jerusalem 4.68%

Bayit Yehudi
High – Raanana 10.91%, Petah Tikva 10.71%, Modiin 10.56%
Low – Bnei Brak 2.35%, Tel Aviv 3.36%, Hertzlia 4.16%

Shas
High – Bnei Brak 23.97%, Bet Shemesh 14.35%, Jerusalem 11.95%
Low – Modiin 1.25%, Raanana 2.06%, Haifa 2.23%

Yisrael Beitenu
High – Ashkelon 15.12%, Ashdod 13.36%, Bat Yam 12.88%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.68%, Raanana 1.48%, Tel Aviv 2.09%

UTJ
High – Bnei Brak 59.35%, Bet Shemesh 28.30%, Jerusalem 21.13%
Low – Modiin 0.58%, Holon 0.62%, Kfar Saba 0.63%

Meretz
High – Tel Aviv 13.02%, Hertzlia 6.51%, Ramat Gan 6.15%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.20%, Bet Shemessh 0.48%, Ashdod 0.75%

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Tidbits: Double Envelope Voting and Notable MKs & Former MKs who didn’t make the cut

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 13 Comments
Party Double Envelopes
Likud 25.65%
Zionist Union 17.71%
Bayit Yehudi 12.39%
The Joint List 12.39%
Yesh Atid 9.41%
Kulanu 8.81%
Meretz 4.56%
Shas 4.45%
Yisrael Beitenu 4%
Green Leaf 3.64%
Yachad 2.90%
UTJ 2.69%

Double envelope votes: Israeli army bases, overseas voting, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails and polling station committee members.

Notable MKs and former MKs who missed out on a Knesset seat

Likud – #37 Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon
Labor – #29 MK Moshe Mizrachi, #28 Former MK Robert Tyivayev
The Joint List – None
Yesh Atid – #12 MK Elazar Stern, #13 MK Penina Tamano, #14 MK Boaz Toporovsky, #15 MK Ruth Calderon, #16 MK Yifat Kariv, #17 MK Dov Lipman, #18 MK Ronen Hoffman
Kulanu – #12 Former MK and Kadima leader Akrem Hasoon
Bayit Yehudi – #9 MK Shuli Muaalam, #10 Deputy Minister Avi Wortzman, #13 MK Orit Struck
Shas – #8 MK Avraham Michaeli
Yisrael Beitenu – #7 MK Robert Ilatov, #11 MK Alex Miller, #12 MK Leon Litinsky, MK #14 Shimon Ochayon, #16 Former MK Moshe Matalon
UTJ – #7 MK Yaakov Asher
Meretz – #6 Former MK Mosi Raz, #9 Former MK Avshalom Vilan

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Pollsters Scorecard: Smith, Teleseker, New Wave -17 off results; Panels, Dialog, Midgam -19

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 12 Comments
Party Seats Smith -17 Teleseker -17 New Wave -17 Panels -19 Dialog -19 Midgam -19 Geo -20 Maagar Mochot -23 TRI -23
Likud 30 21 -9 23 -7 23 -7 21 -9 20 -10 22 -8 26 -4 21 -9 24 -6
Zionist Union 24 25 -1 25 -1 23 -1 25 -1 24 26 -2 21 -3 24 24
The Joint List 13 13 12 -1 13 13 13 13 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1
Yesh Atid 11 11 12 -1 13 -2 13 -2 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1 13 -2 14 -3
Kulanu 10 9 -1 9 -1 9 -1 10 10 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2
Bayit Yehudi 8 11 -3 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 13 -5 13 -5 12 -4
Shas 7 9 -2 7 6 -1 7 7 7 8 -1 7 5 -2
Yisrael Beitenu 6 6 6 6 4 -2 5 -1 5 -1 7 -1 5 -1 4 -2
UTJ 6 6 7 -1 6 6 7 -1 6 8 -2 7 -1 7 -1
Merertz 5 5 4 -1 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 -1
Yachad 0 (3) 4 -1 4 -1 4 -1 5 -2 5 -2 5 -2 3 5 -2 4 -1

 

Company Off by Last Poll
Smith -17 13-Mar
Telesker -17 13-Mar
New Wave -17 6-Mar
Panels -19 13-Mar
Dialog -19 14-Mar
Midgam -19 14-Mar
Geo -20 8-Mar
Maagar Mochot -23 12-Mar
TRI -23 10-Mar

The only pollster to correctly predict Netanyahu’s Phase 2 partners at 67 seats vs his non-Phase 2 partners at 53 seats is Teleseker.

Smith, New Wave, Dialog and Maagar Mochot predicted 66 seats, Panels, Midgam and TRI predicted 64,  Geocartography predicted 70.

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Final Knesset Results (not yet official results) vs 2013 Knesset Results

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 47 Comments
March 19, 2015
 Party 2015 Seats 2015% 2013 Seats 2013%
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33%
Kulanu 10 7.49% — —
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55%
Yachad 0 2.97% Otzma – 0 1.76%
Kadima — — 2 2.09%

Interesting voter breakdown by subgroup:

2013: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=43

2015: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=44

2013: Center – Lapid+Kadima=21

2015: Center – Lapid+Kulanu=21

2013: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=27

2015: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=29

2013: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=11

2015: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=13

2013: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=18

2015: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=13

Quick Analysis:

* Right voters moved within their camp.

* Center voters with a Center-Right tendency broke from Lapid to Kahlon.

* Left voters moved within their camp.

* Arabs increased turnout thanks to united list.

* Haredim were hurt by internal voting boycotts and perhaps as much as 1.21% going to Yachad.

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Comparing results after over 99.9% of results to Exit Polls and Knesset Jeremy Model

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 40 Comments
March 18, 2015
Party Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Results after 99.9% Results vs Exits Results vs KJ
Likud 26.2 22 30 +3.8 +8
Zionist Union 25.6 25 24 -1.6 -1
Joint Arab List 13 12 13 0 +1
Yesh Atid 11.8 12 11 -0.8 -1
Kulanu 9.6 9 10 +0.4 +1
Bayit Yehudi 8.4 12 8 -0.4 -4
Shas 7.2 7 7 -0.2 0
UTJ 6.6 7 6 -0.6 -1
Yisrael Beitenu 5.2 5 6 +0.8 +1
Meretz 5.2 5 5 -0.2 0
Yachad 3.2 4 0 (3) -0.2 -1

Facts:

* Both Exit Poll average and Knesset Jeremy average are within 1 seat on 9 of the 11 parties.

* Exit polls are very close to the current results with the exception of Likud that is at +3.8.

* Knesset Jeremy Model published last week is very close to the results with the exception of Likud gaining at the expense of Bayit Yehudi.

Analysis:

* Likud is the “Yesh Atid” of the 2015 elections.

* Likud gradually gained at the expense of Bayit Yehudi during the last four-five days before the elections as indicated by internal polls that were prohibited from being published by Israeli law.

* Likud gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi is similar on a mathematical level to Yesh Atid gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi in previous election.

* Last polls gave us an accurate picture of Thursday-Friday before Likud’s strategic voting offensive against the right was launched.

* Exit polls missed Likud by close to four seats because their model missed a specific demographic or geographic area.

* It will probably take a few days of going over data to understand what they missed.

* Group of parties that are expected to nominate Prime Minister Netanyahu according to Phase 2 prediction was 66 in the Knesset Jeremy Model and that group is now currently at 67.

*This proves that the last minute shift was within the blocs.

Conclusions:

* People are going to focus too much on the polls getting Likud wrong and not enough on the polls more or less getting everything else right.

* I’m looking forward to an interesting and exciting Phase 2 process where I expect Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu to join Likud in nominating Prime Minister Netanyahu to get first crack at putting together his fourth term as Prime Minister.

Updates:

The table has been updated to reflect over 200,000 double envelope votes that were counted on March 19.

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