| Party | 2015 Seats | 2015% | 2013 Seats | 2013% |
| Likud | 30 | 23.40% | 31 w/YB | 23.34% |
| Zionist Union | 24 | 18.67% | 15+6 | 16.38% |
| The Joint List | 13 | 10.54% | 4+4+3 | 9.20% |
| Yesh Atid | 11 | 8.81% | 19 | 14.33% |
| Kulanu | 10 | 7.49% | — | — |
| Bayit Yehudi | 8 | 6.74% | 12 | 9.12% |
| Shas | 7 | 5.73% | 11 | 8.75% |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 5.11% | w/Likud | w/Likud |
| UTJ | 6 | 5.03% | 7 | 5.16% |
| Meretz | 5 | 3.93% | 6 | 4.55% |
| Yachad | 0 | 2.97% | Otzma – 0 | 1.76% |
| Kadima | — | — | 2 | 2.09% |
Interesting voter breakdown by subgroup:
2013: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=43
2015: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=44
2013: Center – Lapid+Kadima=21
2015: Center – Lapid+Kulanu=21
2013: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=27
2015: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=29
2013: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=11
2015: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=13
2013: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=18
2015: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=13
Quick Analysis:
* Right voters moved within their camp.
* Center voters with a Center-Right tendency broke from Lapid to Kahlon.
* Left voters moved within their camp.
* Arabs increased turnout thanks to united list.
* Haredim were hurt by internal voting boycotts and perhaps as much as 1.21% going to Yachad.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Actually, UTJ increased vote from 195k to 210k.
So it was more that everyone else voted in higher numbers. Over here on the street in Haifa, there seemed to be a great enthusiasm – almost desperation – to vote. Or has the reduced Chareidi birthrate kicked in yet?
The UTJ vote in Haifa was probably less than 2%.
You misunderstood me. I was referring to the general high turnout. People on the street of all sorts were very serious about everyone exercising the franchise, whether or not the voter would vote like them.
I don’t live on the Chareidi end of the neighborhood – that’s by the Technion. Going down to the Chareidi section of Hadar, I saw a bunch of fliers against all parties (against voting?) but that’s nothing new.
It is true that UTJ did increase from 195,892 votes to 211,826 votes.
Turnout in 2013 was 67.77% (3,833,646 votes) and in 2015 it went up to 72.36% (4,253,336 votes).
Jeremy, how do you how much effect Rabbi Aurbach’s boycott had?
I think your comment regarding the Chareidi vote is accurate. I think it may also be fatigue; one can only act in crisis mode for so long. It is important to note that Chareidim not have a welfare mentality; by which I mean they are not individually dissatisfied. They don’t expect fairness from the State, so it doesn’t frustrate them.
The last I looked at the official government statistics, Chareidim were the happiest and most optimistic group in Israel – this even applied to health, and presumably there are a number of Chreidim who cannot afford basic Kupat Cholim (no, it is not free). (Much as Blacks in the US get frustrated by racism, while religious Jews there expect anti-Semitism so it doesn’t frustrate them.)
Do you think the lowered Chareidi birthrate had an effect?
Oh, and thank you very much for all of your efforts.
The Haredi birthrate is still vastly higher than non-Haredim. And I actually agree that Haredim do not have a welfare mentality, per se, but they do rely heavily on government benefits to subsidize a lifestyle that often does not involve a typical job. That doesn’t make them sponges, but it is nevertheless true that Haredim try to get the government to subsidize them in various ways–look at the party platforms
As far as I know, Kupat Holim is indeed basically “free” for housewives and kids, who pay nothing into the Bituach Leumi. IAnd you have a lot of those in the Haredi sector. The quarterly caps on health costs are absurdly low. Litzman of UTJ is big on free dental care for kids, which may get as minister of health. Haredim may get a boost in child payments, too, if they can. I am in support of all of that, as it benefits my family, too.
Charedim are split between the moderates, where mostly the women work, and the relative extremists, where mostly the men work. If only the wife works, which is the more common case, then what happens? Is the husband covered?
This is all from the official statistics.
Yes, of course – I think you understood what I was getting at.
I’m a senior computer programmer – or at least I was until a coupkle of weeks ago, and I make a relatively high salary for Israel. My wife is covered by my 5% health tax. In the statistics, this is called “half of the people don’t work”.
Well, that didn’t take long:
“I don’t want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution.”
http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-backs-away-from-rejection-of-two-state-solution/#ixzz3Uqw69zSd
Giora.
In the circumstances we got the best outcome possible. Lets first face some facts. The majority of Israelis for a variety of reasons whether they supported Netantahu or not wanted to vote for the right. 20% of voters were prepared to vote for the hard right. At one time according to the opinion polls BY and Yachad were going to get 24 seats. If that had happened Israel would have been the pariah of the Middle East and would have resulted in Israel’s isolation and an increase to unprecedented levels of (post war) antisemitism.
After Netanyahu made his unacceptable remarks about Israels Arabs the majority of the hard right decided to vote for Netanyahu. This has resulted only 8 of the hard right got elected.
Thank g-d that although Netanyahu is a nice guy. He is also a very dishonest politician. We can be rest assured that he will not keep the promises he made to the extreme right, and there is very little that Bennet and his 7 nutters can do about it.
It is amazing that the settler/religious right let itself be cannibalized and depleted by a secular Likud. Israel’s politics were rather secularized this year even though the Likud drew a strong settler turnout and the whole Garbuz thing blew up. It isn’t unlike the way that Republicans in America basically use the religious right. It sets the rightist camp up for a lot of division that will kill them electorally in the future.
I like the way elections makes people show their manipulative side. He alienated US a few weeks ago, now is alienating extreme right. After cannibalizing their vote he is moving to another side. Soon he would alienate his own Likud…. but would it matter much…I dont know
Obama is not the “US.” He’s an unpopular politician who runs 1/3 of the federal government and will be gone in 21 months. Israel enjoys massive support in the US. The notion the the US is alienated by his speech is wishful thinking by the Haaretz crowd.
Obama was elected twice with over 50% off the vote. And if he ran a third time he’d win again.
Naes,
I do not support Obama on much, but he is actually reasonably popular in US polling. In fact, his poll numbers are pretty close to where they were in 2012, when he was reelected. America is on a pretty long leftward turn and the idea that Obama “just happened” to sneak in is wrong.
By the way, most Americans back Obama on the Iran deal and were opposed to the way the Bibi speech happened.
@GM, if you would substitute Bush for Obama, and subtract 8 years, the statement would also be true.
@Naes, that should read: By the way, [depending on how the question was worded] most Americans back Obama on the [yet to be published] Iran deal and were opposed to the way the Bibi speech [as described in the media] happened.
The media is still claiming the Whitehouse was never notified, even though the New York Times retracted the statement. The Whitehouse was in fact notified. Not asked for permission or coordination, but notified yes.
A lot of Americans also tend to be kinda stupid. Some of them insist international aid comes from the President (it’s Congress), and that AIPAC is and most powerful pro Israel lobby in the US (it’s Christians United, and it’s 10x-15x bigger than AIPAC in terms of money, people, and influence).
Wrong. Bush didn’t get over 50% of the vote in 2000. In fact, he finished second with less than 50%.
No, you’re wrong.
2015-8 is 2007, this would be the election of 2004, second term, Bush 50.7%.
@Naes:
If it makes you feel better: “part” of the US. (A very important part of the US). Through his opportunistic political maneuvers he alienated American Democrats. He is doing the same to extreme-right in Israel. He cannibalized their mandates through making strong statements from all of which he backtracks after the election night. This is the road to a complete political isolation for him domestically and israel internationally.
Where have you been all there years? Bibi always talks right and acts Left. And Obama numbers are bad for an American President; he is not popular. But I suppose Bibi alienated Jewish Leftists, which I guess who “we” is. They aren’t doing Israel a whole lot of good, anyway.
Obama at RCP average is 45% plus, 50+ minus, which a not good for an American President. And his administration was heavily repudiated in the midterm elections – that’s a fact, no matter how the Left wants to spin it.
He was even more heavily repudiated in 2010, but won re-election 2 years later.
Yes, he’s at 45%, but Bush was in the low to mid-30s at a comparable point in his presidency.
I do not understand that some of you are so leftist that you cannot even see that Obama is on purpose trying to destroy the Constitution with his illegal executive amnesty, his approval of the NSA stealing the right to privacy and … and the illegal Obamacare. And for anyone objecting to my point about Obamacare, I know what the supreme court said but that does not change the fact that Obama has robbed the american people of their right to choose if they want health insurance, and he taken away their right to choose their own doctors and health insurance plans AND he has robbed the people of money by by making the insurance policies MUCH more expensive.
So Giora Me’ir, Obama (in his own person) would NOT manage to get re-elected for a third time after all this and all the scandals he has tried to cover-up (Benghazi, the VA, Hillary Clinton breaking the law about records and transparency, …).
And Giora Me’ir, do you know why he got re-elected? Because he told the american people a BIG bunch of lies about Romney, Obamacare, his own “successful” foreign policy (such as Yemen (?)).
And talking about the 2016 elections, I could tell you guys that if the democrats were to win the WH (unlikely from my point of view) there would be “Obama’s third term”.
If the dems nominate Hillary “master of secrecy” Clinton, she will be so trashed about her direct responsibility for the Benghazi-attack, her failed Libya-policy (“Hillary’s war”), her e-mail scandal (= her efforts to hinder/sabotage the Congress from being able to see what she did/wrote as Secretary of State; breaking the law), the Clinton Foundation taking foreign donations during her tenure at the State Department (broke the agreement with the Obama administration), her (and Bill’s) failed policies and all the scandals in the Clinton WH,… And the critique will not just come from GOP, but also EVEN leftist media (such as is happening now).
If someone else is nominated it would then probably be a REALLY crazy extreme-leftist (=progressive) such as Martin O’Malley or Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren – “the gaffe-machine” Joe Biden it will probably not be (either he is totally crushed by the Clintons or by any of these other guys).
So my expectation is that a republican will win the WH – preferably the libertarian/tea party/conservative type (Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Rand paul, Rick Perry,…). If Jeb Bush were to win the nomination (or much worse: Chris Christie), well that would be bad but that one will have to accept.
The right-wing fever swamp has spoken.
Actually, if O’bama (it’s still St. Patty’s week) were to run a 3rd time, i’d bet he’d win… unless he’d run against Nixon.
The level of dis-information is so outrageous it blindsides the too many on the right.
I remember one of the debates between Romney and Obama with open questions from the floor. Romney was asked what he planned to do about wage disparity between the sexes and what he personally would do to correct this disparity within his own administration. Poor guy. He might as well have been asked: when he stopped beating his wife? When Romney was Gov of Mass he actually paid female staff members 2% MORE then he paid the men. Whereas, 0bama (if i remember the percentage correctly) paid them 17% less. The question question was so outrageous it blindsided him. And the next day the media painted him as the anti-women lower wage for women candidate.
Americans can be really stupid… take for example Blacks in America. The overwhelming majority vote Democrate. Yet it was the Democratic policies of the 50s and 60s than nearly destroyed the Black family (see Moynihan 1965). They seem to forget it was Lincoln, a Republican, that ended slavery. The Jews can be just as stupid, if not worse.
The reason Obama won both times was because he turned out Democratic voting blocs. McCain and Romney were atrocious candidates that no one wanted to vote for. Romney was just so boring and didnt give us anything.
See? And you were all panicking. And if Yachad had got in, it likely would have been at 3.9%, without Marzal.
On security issues, it matter little whom the PM is.
Netanyahu explained his 2 state comments as I expected.
No 2 states = not viable for even consideration as mad blood thirsty villains are all around the middle east and the other side are in cahoots with terrorist groups Hamas/IJ etc and anyway are not serious, they want it all for themselves.
Yes 2 states = border and security adjustments needed, no heavy arms, forget the refuge claims.
we can talk, but we know they won’t agree and want everything for themselves.
Everyone read into his statement what the wanted including the Obama. He didn’t flip flop. His statements were logically consistent. Obama was just looking to pick a fight because he’s a churlish, petulant manchild who can’t take losing gracefully. He’s probably is trying to extract a housing freeze while John Kerry embarrasses himself attempting to get Abbas to be slightly less genocidal. A Palestinian state is no closer than it was 10 years ago and everyone with more than half a brain knows there won’t be one 10 or 20 or 50 years from now.
Was he lying then or is he lying now? He’s lying now. And the statements were diametrically opposed to one another. You can’t even be honest enough to admit it.
Obama is 100 times the human being Netanyahu is or will ever be. And say what you want, at least Obama’s never engaged in incitement that led to the murder of a prime minister.
Of course Netanyahu was less than forthcoming. He’s a politician. It’s part of the job description.
<>
This has been the Netanyahu position for like ever. So he let it out piecemeal.
He still has way more class then the Irishman in Washington… we’ll the election was on St Patrick’s day, and on St Patrick’s day everybody’s Irish… even Buji (who really is) and O’bama!
To paraphrase:
«There will be no Palestinian state on my watch. As much as I would like to see a deal where we and the Arabs can live side by side with peace dignity and security, they currently have no vested interest in actually putting together a state in the near term.»
So it just went out piecemeal.
There will be no Palestinian state on my watch.
Bibi is pretty good at freezing housing without help.
I forgot Buji is a Herzog. Chief Rabbi Herzog had a brogue.
Couple of comments – There are three major fault lines in the narrow coalition which give individual and factions the ability to blackmail the coalition:
1. Kulana (obviously) but they are the most easily satisfied as a majority of partners favor or can live with their social agenda
2. Bayit Yehudi has the ability alone or in concert with YB to create a crisis from the right
3. The haredi parties working together can not only create a crisis but can realistically jump to an alternative coalition (as can Kulanu)
The deals:
1. Bibi needs to retain Defense and the foreign ministry to avoid crisis with Washington. His backtracking on 2 state solution checks Bennett on both fronts and not even a Republican Congress would feel comfortable with pro-Putin Liberman at Defense.
2. Bennett might opt for the Education Ministry (read the Houlobequ novel Submission on how a faith based religious party (Islamic) gains power in France through educational reform
3. Liberman would love Justice and the ability to go after Arabs and the courts and NGO’s but his party’s legal problems might preempt that
4. How soon land scandals hit the public discussion can be an interesting fly in the ointment
5. Kulanu need not be first the first to sign on and in best position to drive a very hard bargain
2 – You are paranoid. Education traditionally went to religious parties. Do you know anything about Israeli political history?
Even Lapid’s Education minister was a rabbi, formerly the head of a rabbinical seminary.
aloni, sarid, saar not exactly beholden to daas torah… but we will see.
obviously you have not done your google search. plz do then make a bibi like clarification.
Kahlon wants YA to be in the government.
were do the nseat numbers come from ? i ran a spread sheet and got diffrent numbers 3 for likud and 9 for kulanu?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/yljec99ij83p15w/election%20results.xls?dl=0