Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #8 (week of Jan 18-Jan 24 2015) of 5 polls from 3 polling companies (2 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 1 Smith, 0 Dialog, Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.4 (24.8) [20] Labor+Livni

2nd 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

3rd 15.6 (16.2) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.6 (09.6) [20] Yesh Atid

5th 07.6 (08.8) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.4 (07.3) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

6th 07.4 (06.6) [10] Shas

8th 05.8 (06.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

9th 05.4 (05.6) [06] Meretz

10th 03.4 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.2 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

69.4 (68.7) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.4 (51.2) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 7 to week 8:           

UTJ and Shas are now tied for 6^th.

Largest Gains: Likud and Shas both gained 0.8 seats each, Yishai gained 0.3.

Biggest Losses: Koolanu dropped 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi lost 0.6., Labor-Livni lost 0.4.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 8:

1 –Coalition by the numbers: Labor-Livni 24.4, Likud 24.0. Bayit Yehudi 15.6, Meretz 5.4.

Likud cut the average difference to less than half of a seat between them and the Labor-Livni alliance. Both satellite parties took a hit this week. Meretz had hoped their Central Committee election for their MK list would give them a bump similar to the three parties that had open primaries. A possible reason that didn’t happen was Meretz electing five incumbents to the first five spots and a former MK to the 6^th slot.

2 – Coalition Building – Herzog’s Problem: The Labor-Livni-Meretz bloc is at 29.8 and Likud-Bayit Yehudi is at 39.6 (without Yishai’s 3.4). Koolanu, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas and UTJ could go with either side; they are unlike Meretz, Bayit Yehudi and Yishai. There are many pundits who rush to place the four parties in a possible Herzog coalition but the four parties have not ruled out a coalition with Netanyahu and will prefer whoever gives them the best deal. Yesh Atid is a different story because Lapid prefers Herzog to Netanyahu, but there are various (longshot) scenarios where Lapid would consider a Netanyahu government over the opposition.  The United Arab List might under the right circumstances nominate Herzog as a candidate to form a government to President Rivlin, but they will not vote for a Zionist government in a Knesset vote that requires 61 MKs to form a coalition. The Arabs could act as a safety net in the future by blocking no-confidence motions from the opposition if a coalition party left a future Herzog government.

Herzog’s main problem is not that his Labor-Livni-Meretz bloc is 10 seats behind the Netanyahu-Bennett bloc; rather it is that he has overcommitted himself. The beginning of Herzog’s future government will look like this: Prime Minister Herzog, Foreign Minister Livni, Defense Minister Yadliin, Finance Minister Trachtenberg. Gal-On & Margalit were both promised top portfolios, most likely the Education or Interior for Gal-On & the Economy Ministry for Margalit. Herzog will be expected to give Yachmovich a respectable minister position as well. Herzog does not have much to offer Lapid, Liberman, Kahlon and Deri, considering he is already committed to six top portfolios and he has to deal with a mandatory 18 minister limit that will be enforced this time.

Netanyahu has fewer commitments, has made few promises, and has a larger bloc of loyal votes. Netanyahu is in a great position to offer Kahlon the Finance Ministry, he can easily offer Liberman a top ministry, UTJ will be offered the Chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee again and Shas can return to the Interior Ministry.

However, if the parties that have not ruled out a Netanyahu coalition dip under 61 seats, Netanyahu’s re-election will be impossible and Herzog’s election becomes probable.

3 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 7.6, Yisrael Beitenu 5.8

The center keeps shrinking. Yesh Atid remained steady this week. Tomorrow we should learn of Lapid’s appointments for Yesh Atid’s next Knesset list and the fate of the 18 (of 20) MKs seeking re-election. Koolanu keeps dropping and people are trying to figure out when their campaign will get off the ground. Another week has gone by, so Yisrael Beitenu has lost more support. Liberman assures us that his party will not fall under the new threshold he created. Five Yisrael Beitenu MKs ‘left’ political life willingly, another three MKs were placed in unrealistic spots during the “Liberman massacre” this week, which also placed two MKs in questionable spots. It is possible that Liberman will only be taking 2 of his MKs with him to the next Knesset, assuming he passes the threshold.

4 – Haredim: UTJ 7.4, Shas 7.4, Ha’am Itanu 3.4

The Haredim are most likely going to be in the next government. Netanyahu and Herzog would both prefer to avoid them if possible, but with the current numbers neither will be able to form a government without them. Shas was facing the threshold a few weeks ago and now they are back polling even with UTJ. Yishai’s polling numbers are getting stronger and this week we will learn if Ben-Ari will join him. Yishai is also waiting to see which Shas MKs are placed lower by Deri so that he can move them over to his list.

5 –United Arab List and Kadima

Starting next week all polls will have the United Arab List as one party and we will be able to treat the list as such in all polling. This is most likely the last week we will ever have to poll Kadima. The last party lists will be submitted on Thursday. Few people expect Mofaz to run on his own and he might not run with anyone at all. Kadima, the largest party of the 17^th and 18^th Knesset’s, the party of Prime Minister’s Sharon and Olmert, led afterwards by Livni and Mofaz will most likely die before the 19^th Knesset is over.

6 – Week 9 Preview

The final lists will be presented by all parties before the Thursday night deadline. There will be a lot of ups and downs this week. The polls will begin to make more sense starting next Sunday.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Jan 11-Jan 18 2015) of 9 polls from 5 polling companies (3 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 0 Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.8 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 23.2 (24.0) [18] Likud

3rd 16.2 (15.3) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.6 (10.3) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.8 (08.6) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.3 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.0) [10] Shas

8th 06.0 (06.6) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

9th 05.6 (06.1) [06] Meretz

10th 03.1 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

68.7 (68.8) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.2 (51.1) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 6 to week 7:            

Labor-Livni replaces Likud as the largest party.

Shas jumps from 9^th to 7^th, while Yisrael Beitenu drops to 8^th and Meretz to 9^th.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi gained .9 and Shas gained .6.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.8, Yesh Atid lost 0.7., Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.6.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 7:

1 – The post-primary bump: Labor-Livni 24.8, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.2.

Same headline as last week. The two parties that gained the most ground this week both had mid-week primaries. For the last two weeks the post-primary bump has helped Likud, this week the bump went to the other two democratic parties that have open primaries. The public loves primaries, no matter the result. Just like Likud, Labor and Bayit Yehudi chose more or less the same people they voted for two years ago. In Labor, Likud and Bayit Yehudi there are reserved slots that will balance their lists with new faces.

2 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 8.8, Yisrael Beitenu 6.0

The center is splintered and shrinking. There will be no joint list between the three center parties. Yesh Atid has dropped out of double digits again and we still don’t know the order of their list. Koolanu announced the order of their top 10 to little fanfare. Yisrael Beitenu keeps losing ground and is now about two seats from falling under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu 2013: #2 Minister Shamir, #3 Minister Landau, #5 Minister Aharonovich, #7 Deputy Minister Kirshenbaum, #8 Chairman Rotem. – All gone for 2015.

Yisrael Beitenu 2015: Foreign Minister Liberman, MK Levi-Abukasis, Minister Landver and a journalist from Channel 20.

3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.3, Shas 6.6, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

It is very hard for people to explain how Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues to gain as a result. The answer is that these people really  feel like they don’t have anywhere else to turn to (yet). Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 8 of the 9 polls taken this week, which means he will start talking to former MK Ben Ari about a joint list.

4 – Meretz 5.6 and the United Arab List

Remember when Meretz was in double digits? Now they are within the margin of error in some polls of falling under the threshold. Their Central Committee will choose their next list this week. Meretz is hoping their Central Committee vote will give them the same type of bump Labor enjoyed after their primary this week.

The Hadash & Balad Central Committees chose their lists as we get closer to the merger deadline.

5 – The Bloc War and the President Mandate

People keep writing to me that Herzog has the best chance to form a coalition. They give me a long list of the people in the know that agree with them. The problem is that the numbers don’t add up. Anything can happen in the world of politics. But, you can’t honestly tell me that it is more likely that the Haredim are going to sit in a coalition with Yesh Atid than Yesh Atid sitting in a coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu. You need 61 votes to approve a new coalition and let’s face it – Koolanu & Yisrael Beitenu would join either coalition.

A Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Meretz coalition is 54.8.
A Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-UTJ-Shas-Yisrael Beitenu coalition (without Yishai passing, or adding Yesh Atid) is 68.7.

When a Herzog coalition becomes viable I will list it.

In the last two terms President Shimon Peres did not want to give the mandate to form the government to Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem for him was that he had to. If the combined seat total of the party leaders that nominate an individual for Prime Minister comes out to 61 (or more), the President has to give the mandate to that person. It is possible that a party like Koolanu will not nominate someone for Prime Minister to give them more negotiation power, but maybe a creditable journalist should get a clear answer on that question before assuming that is how things will be.

6 – Week 8 Preview

Less than two weeks to finalize Knesset lists. Yesh Atid needs to pick a list. Likud, Labor & Bayit Yehudi all have reserved slots to fill. Meretz’s Central Committee chooses their list. United Arab List or bust? Is this the last full week we will have to poll Kadima? There are many story-lines to follow this week.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #6 (week of Jan 4-Jan 10 2015) of 6 polls from 4 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

2nd 23.6 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

3rd 15.3 (16.0) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 10.3 (09.1) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.6 (09.0) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.5 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.7) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

8th 06.1 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 06.0 (05.8) [10] Shas

10th 03.1 (03.3) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.1) [02] Kadima

68.8 (69.6) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.1 (50.3) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 5 to week 6:             

Likud replaces Labor-Livni as the largest party.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats, Likud gained .8 and Shas gained .2.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.7, Koolanu lost 0.4, Meretz dropped 0.4.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 6:

1 – The post-primary bump: Likud 24.0 and Labor-Livni 23.6.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud regained their #1 position thanks to a post-primary surge. The Likud primary produced more or less the same list, noting the exception of former Kadima MK Dichter replacing hardliner MK Feiglin in the top 26 spots reserved on the national list. Likud without Feiglin, who resigned from the party, is enjoying a bump. Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovelly who placed #26 is now within the margin of error of returning as an MK.

The combined Labor-Livni list has stood its ground in the polls. Herzog is hoping for a Labor post-primary bump this week, but that will most likely be dependent on what list Labor voters choose. Livni has less than three weeks to decide on her party’s reserved slots and is expected to take into account the result of the Labor primary. Livni is happy that her former #2 Amram Mitzna labeling her as a dictator did not harm the joint list in the polls.

2 – Double Digits: Bayit Yehudi 15.3 and Yesh Atid 10.3

For the last two weeks Bayit Yehudi was the only other party in double digits, but that changes this week after Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats. Although Yair Lapid will be the first to promote his sudden surge, things must be put into perspective. Yesh Atid, the largest party in the current Knesset with 19 seats, would lose about half its strength. Bayit Yehudi would net a gain of three-seats.

3 – Going Down: Koolanu 8.6, Yisrael Beitenu 6.6 and Meretz 6.1

What do these three parties have in common? They all lost strength this week – again. Moshe Kahlon’s Koolanu list seems to drop every time he announces another figure. Perhaps Kahlon should consider cloning himself or getting a better internal pollster. Yisrael Beitenu’s corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Homeland Security Minister Aharonovich is the latest Yisrael Beitenu Minister to announce he will not run for re-election. Zahava Gal-On, who ran unopposed, was re-appointed as Meretz leader. Meretz seems to be more focused on its internal central committee election for its Knesset slate than in the general election campaign.

4 – Haredim: UTJ 7.5, Shas 6.0, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

In most polls UTJ is at 7-8 seats and it will likely be the case until Election Day. Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues its slow climb up.  Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 5 of the 6 polls taken this week.

5 – Blocs: 68.8 vs 51.1

The combined Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-UTJ-Shas bloc has gradually dropped over the last 6 weeks. Yishai not passing the threshold in most polls lowers the combined totals of Netanyahu’s potential partners.

6 – Week 7 Preview

Bayit Yehudi and Labor will be focused on their primaries. Kahlon will reveal more candidates. Additional Yisrael Beitenu MKs will most likely retire. Expect more drama in Shas now that Deri is back. We should grow closer to a United Arab List which means we should expect a few nasty headlines. Netanyahu will consider more names for his two reserved slots by leaking them to the public. Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz should surface after the Labor primary to ask Herzog for Defense Minister again in return for his 2-seats of campaign funding.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #4 (week of Dec 21-Dec 27 2014) of 8 polls from 7 polling companies (2 Panels, 1 Smith, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 1 Teleseker,  1 Sarid, 1 TRI, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.2 (22.1) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 22.6 (22.0) [18] Likud

3rd 15.7 (15.4) [11] Bayit Yehudi* (includes poll of 13 w/o Tekuma)

4th 09.5 (09.2) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.8 (10.1) [–] Koolanu

6th 08.0 (08.8) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

7th 06.8 (07.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.5 (06.7) [06] Meretz

9th 05.3 (05.5) [10] Shas

10th 03.6 (03.8) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)* (polled over threshold in 5 of 8 polls this week,  very close in other 3)

11th 10.7 (10.1) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

70.0 (71.7) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.0 (48.2) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Changes from week 3 to week 4:

Yesh Atid moves up to 4th, Koolanu drops to 5th.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 1.1, Likud gained .6 and the future United Arab List gained .6 as well.

Biggest Losses: Koolanu dropped 1.3 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.8, UTJ dropped 0.4.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 4:

1 – Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition Bloc: Week 1-76.4, Week 2-73.5, Week 3-71.7, Week 4-70.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s future coalition possibilities are becoming more limited as the campaign goes on. In the first three weeks there was not a single poll that had his potential partners falling under 70 seats and now his current high-low is 72-67. Shas, Yisrael Beitenu & now Koolanu are bleeding votes and Yishai might not pass the threshold. Likud still has the best shot at forming the next government, but that could change as time goes on.

2 – Labor-Livni, Likud grow, at expense of Center.

Labor & Likud gained this week at the expense of the center parties. This is supposed to be the time period that Likud & Labor, who are both deeply involved in their primary elections, are temporarily overtaken by the momentum of center parties. The center parties usually take advantage of this period to get a head start on their general campaign and instead chose to involve themselves prematurely with “kingmaker scenarios” which has proven unpopular by the public. If you lead a center party, 80 days before an election is not the right time to leak to the press possible coalition blackmail conspiracies.

3 – Yisrael Beitenu has now lost 3 seats in last three weeks.

The corruption scandal this week will probably not help Yisrael Beitenu. Previous corruption scandals have helped Liberman in the past, but his party is in a tailspin and is losing support on a weekly basis. Before the scandal broke, Foreign Minister Liberman decided it was time to move to the center, and his close associates leaked his planned shakeup. The entire right-wing flank including his #2 Minister Shamir, #3 Minister Landau and loyalist MK Rotem – out. Former Labor MKs such as Landver and Litinsky are safe, with an eye at grabbing Livni Party refugee MK Stern. Today Yisrael Beitenu has 13 seats in the current Knesset, in week 4 they are averaging 8 seats, and their current high-low is 10-5.

4 –Koolanu

The biggest loser of the week was Koolanu. They dropped 1.4 seats, fell out of 4^th place, and this is in the week where they finally announced their #2 – Michael Oren. Maybe Kahlon should stick to domestic issues, his strong point, which all polls show are the main focus of Israelis in this election.

5 – Deri & BB? Yishai is with BB.

In a scenario poll (not averaged in here) Shas fell under the threshold in a poll for the first time since the 1980s. In 6 of the 8 polls this week Shas fell under their weekly average of 5.3 seats. Many Shas MKs are waiting to see where they are placed on the list and some of them have made it clear they will jump ship to Yishai’s party if they are not happy with their spot. That is 10 Shas MKs fighting over 4-6 realistic spots. Yishai clearly says in every interview that he will support Netanyahu, because every poll indicates Shas voters prefer Netanyahu over Herzog. Deri refuses to commit himself to Netanyahu, and now finds himself within the threshold’s margin of error.

6 – Week 5 Preview

This week’s Likud primary will be covered heavily by the press and might involve some interesting scenario polling. Expect more scenario polling of the United Arab List until they formally sign an agreement. We will get better numbers from Yisrael Beitenu as more details of the latest corruption probe come to light. It will be interesting to see how Koolanu does as Kahlon releases more names on his Knesset list.