Tag Archive: Geocartography


Geocartography conducted a poll that was taken out for i24news and released on March 8 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [18] Likud
21 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [10] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel) – 3 seats but under 3.25% electoral threshold

70 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
50 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

 

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #14 (week of March 1-7 2015) of 12 polls from 8 leading polling companies (3 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 2 Midgam, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Maagar Mochot,  1 New Wave, 1 Geocartography,  0 Sarid & TRI.

 

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.50 (23.66) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

2nd 22.83 (23.08) [18] Likud

3rd 12.58 (12.41) [11] The Joint (Arab) List

4th 12.30 (11.91) [20] Yesh Atid

5th 11.91 (12.00) [11] Bayit Yehudi

6th 08.25 (08.16) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 06.83 (06.75) [10] Shas

8th 06.66 (06.91) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

9th 05.58 (05.66) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.33 (05.00) [06] Meretz

11th 04.16 (04.41) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

 

66.25 (67.08) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

53.75 (52.91) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

 

Changes: Yesh Atid passes Bayit Yehudi for fourth place and Shas replaces UTJ for seventh place.

 

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 0.39 of a seat; Meretz gained 0.33 of a seat and The Joint (Arab) List gained 0.17.

Biggest Losses: Likud, UTJ and Yachad all dropped 0.25 of a seat.

Swing: Less than 1.1 seat change across the board from last week.

**

The 3-phase process to the Prime Minister House: Phase 1 – Elections (seats). Phase 2 – President’s Residence (nomination). Phase 3 – Knesset vote (61 MKs needed).

**

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 14:

1 – The Speech, The Debate and Purim.

The election is ten days away. Yet, it seems like a majority of Israelis concentrated on the Jewish holiday of Purim during a week that was dominated by headlines and analysis from the previous weekend’s debate and Netanyahu’s speech to Congress. The overall swing was about 1.1 Knesset seats.

Likud lost a quarter of a seat this week, despite polling better in the second part of the week following Netanyahu’s Knesset speech, due to a poor showing in the beginning of the week ahead of the speech. Overall Likud had a high of 24 (3 polls) and a low of 21 (1 poll) for a 22.83 average compared to Zionist Union’s low of 22 and high of 24 for an average of 23.5. The best news for Netanyahu this week was Shas’s decision to join Yachad and Bayit Yehudi in endorsing Netanyahu for Phase 2.

Herzog is happy to see the parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition increase to 53.75 with two polls this week giving the bloc 56 seats. His bloc did suffer a setback when The Joint List announced they would not sign a voter exchange agreement with Meretz. Herzog who signed with Meretz was hoping to increase his bloc by cancelling the agreement to sign with Yesh Atid if The Joint List agreed to sign with Meretz. If The Joint List won’t sign a voter exchange agreement with Meretz, it will be interesting to see if they will be able to bring themselves to nominate Herzog for Phase 2. It is great news for his bloc that Meretz is up this week.

With the top two parties fighting for the largest list, the battle for the third largest list will be an interesting story-line to follow. The Joint List, Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi are all averaging within a half a seat of each other. Yesh Atid is the party with momentum and hasn’t been in single digits since Feb 15. Kulanu is still trying to figure out how to get out of single digits.

Shas enjoyed a bump after Deri’s endorsement of Netanyahu, receiving 7 and 8 seats in the last two polls released this week. There was a lot of pressure for Deri to support Netanyahu. A previous public poll showed that just 4% of Shas voters preferred Herzog to Netanyahu. Yachad was down to 4 seats in the last ten polls conducted this week. Yishai is expected to lose from Deri’s endorsement. 5 polls (Smith, Panels, Midgam, Dialog and New Wave) had UTJ at just 6 seats this week.

2 – Week 15 Preview: The Last Week of Polling

On Friday I will release the last Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average. This means Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 will most likely be the last poll related post on Knesset Jeremy for this election cycle due to the Israeli law.

In the final Poll of Polls post I will post a prediction for the final results that will be based on the polls average, factions of seats lost votes to the 15 parties expected not to pass the threshold, vote-swap agreements and momentum. This will be based on pure science and math, no hunches or gut feelings. I can tell you ahead of time that it will be wrong, but it will be interesting to see how close (or far) it is from the final results.

In 2013 the KnessetJeremy Average predicted 8 of the 12 lists elected within 1 seat of the final election results.

Official Results (KJ AVG) Party
31 (35) Likud Beitenu
15 (18) Labor
12 (15) Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
19 (12) Yesh Atid
11 (11) Shas
6 (7) Movement
7 (6) Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 (6) Meretz
4 (4) Hadash
4 (3) Ra’am-Ta’al
3 (3) Balad
2 (2) Kadima (Model predicted Kadima over 2 seats but under 2.4 seats)

https://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/18/knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-likud-beitenu-33-7-labor-16-5-bayit-yehudi-14-0-yesh-atid-10-9-shas-10-6-movement-7-2/

For more analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my weekly radio interview on Sundays with Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com

Geocartography conducted a poll that was taken out for I24News and was released on March 1st 2015.

(This is the first poll taken out after the debate).

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [18] Likud
22 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
14 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
09 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
04 [10] Shas

69 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
51 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

 

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #13 (week of Feb 21-Feb 28 2015) of 12 polls from 7 leading polling companies (3 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 2 Smith, 2 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 1 Geocartography, 1  TRI,  0 Maagar Mochot, Sarid & New Wave)

 

(Last Week in parentheses), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.66 (23.90) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

2nd 23.08 (23.80) [18] Likud

3rd 12.41 (12.00) [11] The Joint (Arab) List

4th 12.00 (12.50) [11] Bayit Yehudi

5th 11.91 (11.10) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 08.16 (08.10) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 06.91 (07.20) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.75 (06.60) [10] Shas

9th 05.66 (05.60) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.00 (05.00) [06] Meretz

11th 04.41 (04.20) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

 

67.08 (68.00) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

52.91 (52.00) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

 

Changes: The Joint (Arab) List passes Bayit Yehudi for third place.

 

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 0.8 of a seat; The Joint (Arab) List gained 0.4 of a seat and Yachad gained 0.2.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.8 of a seat; Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.5 of a seat and Zionist Union & UTJ lost 0.3 of a seat.

**

The 3-phase process to the Prime Minister House: Phase 1 – Elections (seats). Phase 2 – President’s Residence (nomination). Phase 3 – Knesset vote (61 MKs needed).

**

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 13:

1 – The Debate – Phase 2 & 3 Game-changers.

It is human nature to want to predict the future. The Debate between the eight party leaders representing a majority of Israeli voters, 66.3 seats according to our weekly average, was more focused at times on Phases 2 & 3 than the policy positions that will elect the party leaders in Phase 1. The Israeli public, as well as analysts, are asking themselves who is willing to sit with who (and at what cost) and how the next government will look like.

The Debate gave us a clear picture of what eight of the eleven party leaders are thinking 19 days before the election. Both candidates for Prime Minister, Netanyahu and Herzog, watched the debate from their homes with one question in mind: What are the party leaders thinking about doing in Phases 2 & 3.

There is a huge difference between a political analyst and a poll analyst. You can analyze Phase 1 with math and science. With Phases 2 & 3 – You need to be a prophet to know what will happen because of the many statistical possibilities that are based on the Phase 1 data that has not yet taken place. However, if we choose to believe the politicians and their statements from The Debate, you don’t need to be a prophet to analyze Phases 2 & 3.

Koolanu’s Moshe Kahlon decided to double-down on his Finance Minister strategy. The overall feeling is that the wildcard Kahlon cares more about being Finance Minister than who is Prime Minister. He wasn’t shy about it either, in his closing pitch he asked to be Israel’s next Finance Minister. Overall, Kahlon’s performance was all over the place. He went right when he talked about a united Jerusalem and keeping the Jordan valley, stating his only differences with Netanyahu are on economic and social issues. He also went left by talking about his vision for a Palestinian State if a partner arises, he wouldn’t rule out nominating Herzog in Phase 2 or sitting in a government with Meretz in Phase 3. Kahlon kept name-dropping Former Likud Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s legacy and referring to his previous Likud background with pride. He side-stepped how a Begin-Likud guy could nominate Herzog for Prime Minister. He chose not to address the fact that Herzog already offered the Finance portfolio to someone else and for some reason no one bothered asking him that key question.

Yisrael Beitenu’s Avigdor Liberman took a sharp turn to the right. Herzog would object to a majority of the ‘minimum’ demands and campaign promises that Liberman proposed. He attacked Meretz and repeatedly stressed he wouldn’t sit with them. He also attacked The Joint List’s Iman Udah countless times, going as far as calling him a Fifth Column and a Palestinian rep that should sit in Abbas’s Parliament.

Shas’s Aryeh Deri also went right. He said there is no partner for peace with the Palestinians and rejected Iman Udah’s offer to work together if Udah remains focused on the Palestinian issue. Deri made it clear he will sit with anyone including Eli Yishai, but he won’t sit with Yair Lapid, who refuses to turn the clock back on last term’s legislation. Deri had started out by talking about his old friendship and coffee meetings he used to share with Lapid, by the end of The Debate he was attacking him bitterly. Deri also refused to comment on the content of the tapes of Rav Ovadiah Yosef and instead used it as a way to get into a fight with Eli Yishai over who is the Maran’s true successor.

Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid refused to agree to the possibility of turning the clock back on what is needed to bring Deri, and one would think Litzman, into the next government. Lapid ignored Deri’s olive branches and at one point even suggested to Deri to help rehabilitate him from the time he sat in jail as a convicted felon. Lapid crushed Herzog’s dream of having both of them in the same coalition.

The Joint List’s Iman Udah refused to commit to helping Herzog in Phase 2 or 3. He refused to respond to any of Liberman’s questions including the question if he is Israeli or “Palestinian as he claims to be”. He wouldn’t answer head-on anything that had to do with MK Hanin Zoabi and if he shared those views. He complained about getting the least time to speak and reminded the audience that he is the leader of the third largest party in the polls.

Meretz’s Zahava Gal-On sounded like Naftali Bennett’s spokeswoman when she said that everyone including the Zionist Union wants to join the next Netanyahu government. She also made it clear that she will not sit with Liberman in the same government as a matter of true principle.

We know that the other two party leaders will be backing Prime Minister Netanyahu and it was interesting that Eli Yishai and Naftali Bennett refused to fight each other. Bennett attacked Liberman & Kahlon for their support of a two-state solution. Yishai fought off attacks from Deri on what Rav Ovadiah Yosef would think of his decision to run with outcasts from Bayit Yehudi and Kahanaists

Main takeaway from The Debate: Herzog’s issue of needing to choose between Yisrael Beitenu or Meretz & Yesh Atid or Haredim is very real & crushing to his ability to form a new coalition, even in the scenario where The Joint List can be convinced to join a Herzog-led coalition.

2 – Week 14 Preview: The Speech & Purim

The first part of the week will be overshadowed by “the speech” and the second part of the week will be overshadowed by celebrations surrounding the Jewish holiday of Purim and Shushan Purim in selected cities.

For more analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my weekly radio interview on Sundays with Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com

Geocartography conducted a poll that was taken out for I24News and was released on Feb 22 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [18] Likud
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
04 [06] Meretz
04 [10] Shas

70 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
50 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #12 (week of Feb 15-Feb 20 2015) of 10 polls from 8 leading polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 Geocartography, 1  TRI,  0 Sarid & New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.9 (23.2) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

2nd 23.8 (24.4) [18] Likud

3rd 12.5 (12.4) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.0 (12.4) [11] The Joint (Arab) List

5th 11.1 (10.1) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 08.1 (08.0) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.2 (07.0) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.6 (06.8) [10] Shas

9th 05.6 (05.8) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.0 (05.1) [06] Meretz

11th 04.2 (04.4) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

68.0 (69.0) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

52.0 (51.0) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

Changes: Zionist Union passes Likud to be the largest list & Bayit Yehudi breaks the third place tie with The Joint (Arab) List dropping back down to fourth place.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 1 seat; Zionist Union gained 0.7 of a seat and UTJ gained 0.2.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.6 of a seat; The Joint (Arab) List dropped 0.4 of a seat & three parties (Shas, Yisrael Beitenu & Yachad) lost 0.2 of a seat.

**

The 3-phase process to the Prime Minister House: Phase 1 – Elections (seats). Phase 2 – President’s Residence (nomination). Phase 3 – Knesset vote (61 MKs needed).

**

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 12:

1 – 23 days Left – Netanyahu vs Herzog: Zionist Union 23.9, Likud 23.8

For most of the election campaign the Zionist Union has averaged as the largest list. The Zionist Union led for four straight weeks, from Week 2 until Week 5, and after a week break led again for another three weeks straight, from Week 6 to Week 9. Herzog realized it was time for a change after Likud had their first back-to-back weeks at the top (Weeks 10 & 11). In comes Reuven Adler and suddenly Livni is taking a back seat. That will be a storyline to follow as we get closer. If the rumors are true and Adler is trying to push Livni to give up on her rotation agreement – Things could get a lot more interesting.

So far Likud circles agree that they got off lightly from the State Comptroller Report. The report is expected to still get a lot of play in the media cycle this coming week and it is possible it could do some damage as other parties help keep the report in the headlines.

The head-to-head match-up for largest list is most likely going down to the wire, with just 0.1 seats separating the largest two lists. As for the much talked about ‘national unity government’ scenario, at a combined 47.7 seats, Likud & Zionist Union would need to invite additional parties to create a national unity government.

2 – The Players: Bayit Yehudi 12.5, The Joint (Arab) List 12, Yesh Atid 11.1

Bayit Yehudi has had a lousy month. They started the week with an average of 11.5 in the first four polls, with some results having the party dip as low as 5th place. Something changed mid-week and Bayit Yehudi finished with an average of 13.16 in the last six polls of the week. Some of the votes are coming from Likud but others are actually coming from Yisrael Beitenu. Yisrael Beitenu averaged 6.25 in the first four polls of the week and 5.16 in the six polls released later in the week.

The Joint (Arab) List has four party leaders and each party leader has a different answer to the question of what the list is planning to do in Phase 2 & Phase 3. One thing that is certain is that none of them will be backing Prime Minister Netanyahu. It is very possible that the four party leaders give different answers to President Rivlin during Phase 2. This will be an interesting dilemma for President Rivlin. The law says it is the leader of the list, not the leader of each party who makes the decision on nomination in Phase 2. If President Rivlin goes strictly according to the law it is the new Hadash leader who would get to make the decision for all of the other party leaders and remarks by both MKs Zachalka (Balad) and Tibi (Ta’al) would be irrelevant. The Joint List can decide to split their vote in Phase 3, but for now a majority of the candidates on The Joint List rule out the option of even considering voting for a Zionist government in Phase 3.

Yesh Atid had a good week. They started with an average of 10 seats in the first three polls of the week and jumped to 11.5 seats in the final seven. Overall they gained the most ground of the 11 lists expected to pass the threshold this week. It is most likely that Lapid is benefiting from the other party leaders mistakes because nothing major happened during the Yesh Atid campaign this week that would explain Lapid gaining a full seat. It appears that many of the undecided voters are answering Yesh Atid this week and Yair Lapid is going to do what he can to keep them locked down.

3 – The Third-Tier: Koolanu 8.1, UTJ 7.2, Shas 6.6

Kahlon expected to be higher in the polls with three weeks and change to go. He knows that his party has the promise to be the breakout party of this election. He still has some time but Koolanu is polling lower than Yesh Atid did at Week 12 during the previous cycle. Kahlon will need to shake things up to get out of the third-tier.

UTJ’s decision to open their main campaign headquarters in Petah Tikva shows a great deal about their plans for extending their voter base.  Petah Tikva, the city that finished in fifth place in votes cast two-years ago, is a former National Religious Party stronghold and UTJ received 4% of the Petah Tikva vote in 2013.

The last time Deri led Shas into an election they received 17 seats in 1999. Yishai led the party to 11 seats in 2003, 12 in 2006 and 11 seats in 2009. The joint-leadership ticket of Yishai-Deri-Attias repeated 11 seats in 2013. Deri understands he won’t repeat his 1999 achievement with Attias in retirement and Yishai running with his own list. Despite knocking off a few more Shas MKs from the current list (Zeev, Amnon Cohen & Edri), Deri will need 8 seats for all the remaining Shas MKs to retain their positions.

4- Fighting the Threshold: Yisrael Beitenu 5.6, Meretz 5, Yachad 4.2

After nine years (2006-2015) as a party with double-digits MKs, between 11 and 15 depending on the election, Foreign Minister Liberman is polling within two-seats of the new 3.25% threshold that he created. Yisrael Beitenu is currently in position to be remembered as the biggest loser of the election. It would take a dramatic change to prevent Yisrael Beitenu from dropping from their current 13 seats to become a single-digit party. When his bill passed less than a year ago Yisrael Beitenu had five ministers, in the next government Liberman might be stuck with just two. Following Lapid and Livni’s firing there were rumors in the Knesset that Shas & UTJ would agree to join Netanyahu to create a narrow 61-MK majority coalition and it was Liberman who preferred elections over the Haredim in the government. If those rumors are true, one has to wonder if Liberman regrets that decision.

Meretz has been dropping every week, slowly but surely. The last time Meretz didn’t drop was back in Week 5 when they retained their 6.5 seats from Week 4.Meretz’s high was 6.8 seats which they received back during Week 1. In some circles there are analysts who are wondering if Meretz, now averaging at 5 seats, will pass the threshold.

This is the second straight week where Yachad passed the electoral threshold in all of the week’s polls. Many expect this trend to continue as additional disgruntled Sephardi Rabbis jump ship from Shas to Yachad. The biggest Sephardic Rabbi pickup of this week was Rabbi Yoram Abergel. On the other side of their electoral spectrum, Yachad took a slight hit in their battle for Chardal (a mix of ultra-orthodox-national religious) voters when Rabbi Zalman Melamed decided to endorse Bayit Yehudi. Rabbi Melamed’s influential student and former MK & National Union Leader Yaakov Katzeleh Katz also endorsed Bayit Yehudi last week. Yachad is pushing the endorsement of influential Chardal Rabbi, Rabbi Shmuel Eliyahu, as their answer to Rabbi Melamed’s endorsement of Bayit Yehudi. Baruch Marzel returns to the list at #4 following the Supreme Court decision to overturn the Central Elections Committee decision to disqualify him. Zoabi’s disqualification was also overturned and she returns to The Joint List.

5 – Week 13 Preview

We have three more installments of the Poll of Polls left and things are heating up. We had eight of the top ten polling companies conducting at least one poll this week. Expect more polls throughout this coming week. This will be the last full week of polling for parties to test ideas ahead of the launch of television ads on March 3.

For more analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my weekly radio interview on Sundays with Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com

Geocartography conducted a poll that was taken out for i24news and was released on Feb 15 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [18] Likud
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
08 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Shas
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

70 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
50 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #11 (week of Feb 8-Feb 14 2015) of 7 polls from 4 leading polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.4 (25.3) [18] Likud

2nd 23.2 (23.6) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

3rd 12.4 (13.0) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.4 (12.0) [11] The Joint (Arab) List

5th 10.1 (10.4) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 08.0 (07.5) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.0 (07.2) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.8 (06.5) [10] Shas

9th 05.8 (05.4) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.1 (05.2) [06] Meretz

11th 04.4 (03.8) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

69.0 (68.6) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

51.0 (51.3) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

*Note #1: Marzel & Zoabi are currently disqualified but Supreme Court has yet to have final say.

* Note #2: Results including the two polling companies that released their first polls of the election cycle and are not expected to carry out additional polls (Times of Israel’s 202 Strategies and Sekernet): Likud 24.4, Zionist Union23.6, Bayit Yehudi 12.1, The Joint (Arab) List 12.1, Yesh Atid 10.1, Koolanu 8.3, UTJ 7.1, Shas 6.5, Yisrael Beitenu 6.0, Meretz 5.0, Yachad 4.5. There is no change in placement compared to the regular poll of poll results and no party has a change of more than 0.4 of a seat on the average.

Changes: The Joint (Arab) List has tied Bayit Yehudi as the third largest party.

Largest Gains: Yachad gained 0.6 of a seat; Koolanu gained 0.5 of a seat and both The Joint (Arab) List and Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.9 of a seat; Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.6 of a seat & Zionist Union lost 0.4 of a seat.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 11:

1 – President Rivlin sets the ground rules for Phase 2: Race goes from a head-to-head war to a bloc war

Last week we discussed the 3-Phase process to the Prime Minister House. Phase 1 – Elections (seats). Phase 2 – President’s Residence (nomination). Phase 3 – Knesset vote (61 MKs needed).

Most analysts have been focusing on Phase 2 because President Rivlin chose to not be so clear on how he will conduct that process. Rivlin’s decision this week to announce he plans to pressure all parties to choose a preference turns the election from a head-to-head war to a bloc war.

Previously the thought process was that parties such as Koolanu, Yisrael Beitenu, UTJ and Shas could get away by saying they prefer a national unity government or say they do not have a preference between Netanyahu and Herzog. Rivlin’s insistence to force an answer out of each party leader will reduce the wiggle room each of these parties has.

Only six (Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yachad vs Zionist Union-Yesh Atid-Meretz) of the eleven lists that are expected to be elected to the next Knesset have made their positions on Phase 2 clear, with a seventh (Joint Arab List) making it clear they will never nominate or vote for a Netanyahu government. Of course parties such as Yesh Atid have implied their Phase 2 preference does not necessarily indicate what their Phase 3 plans. Rivlin’s move is meant to force the other parties to announce their Phase 2 plans before the election. The move could also convince parties that have made commitments on Phase 2, but are non-committal about Phase 3, to announce their intentions before the election as well.

Both Likud and the Zionist Union are frustrated by this announcement because the head-to-head argument was helping the two largest lists in the polls during the last few weeks. Rivlin’s move could help parties that are polling close to the electoral threshold such as Meretz and Yisrael Beitenu stay afloat.

Fans of the two-party system shouldn’t blame President Rivlin for making this call because it is the Israeli public that is choosing to make this a bloc war. The two largest lists running in this election have failed in every poll to reach half of the seats together. A national unity government of the two largest parties would still require other parties to reach 61 MKs. Simply, a majority of Israelis are choosing the other nine.

2 – What would it take for Herzog to become Prime Minister?

If Herzog wins 23 seats in Phase 1, as he did in the average of this week’s polls, what would it take for him to reach the Prime Minister office?

One possible scenario:

In Phase 2, Herzog would need to receive the backing of enough party leaders to prove to Rivlin that he is capable of reaching 61 MKs to approve his government in Phase 3. To start off Herzog figures out a way to convince his future coalition partners why he is keeping the top three senior portfolios (Foreign Minister Livni, Finance Minister Trajtenberg and Defense Yadliin) or alternatively Herzog dumps some or all of the people he had campaigned with. Herzog starts with his natural partner. Meretz’s 5 seats will quickly bring Herzog from 23 to 28. Yair Lapid, who makes it harder to bring in the Haredim and the Arabs, joins a Herzog coalition and convinces Herzog to either dump Trajtenberg as Finance Minister or perhaps accepts a lower level portfolio. Yesh Atid brings Herzog up to 38. Herzog turns to Kahlon, who almost ran on a joint list with Likud, and offers Koolanu either the Finance portfolio that Herzog didn’t give Trajtenberg or Lapid, or perhaps a lower level portfolio.

At 46, Herzog makes a play to get a commitment from the Arabs. The Joint (Arab) List forgives the Zionist Union for voting to disqualify MK Zoabi from running in the election, ignore past commitments not to enter a Zionist coalition, and raises Herzog’s numbers to 58. Herzog, with a commitment from Zionist Union-Meretz-Joint Arab List-Yesh Atid-Koolanu for 58 seats has two options. Herzog either convinces Liberman to take a big demotion and sit with Meretz (and perhaps the Joint Arab List) in a left-wing government or Herzog tries to convince Shas and/or UTJ to sit with Lapid. The Hardim find some way to agree to sit with Lapid and not rollback the Haredi Draft Law, with some sort of increase Haredi institution funding. Or perhaps Lapid allows the Haredi Draft Law to be repealed for the sake of replacing Netanyahu. The Joint Arab List who helped Herzog in Phase 2 disappear in Phase 3, but it doesn’t matter because by this point you have a stable coalition of Zionist Union-Meretz-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Shas-UTJ.

Following this unusual Phase 2 arrangement, this potential Herzog government would now require 61 MKs to approve such a coalition in Phase 3, without any rebel MKs from any of the factions voting against such a union. Of course MKs such as Zoabi & Trajtenberg would vote for such an arrangement.

3 – What would it take for Netanyahu to become Prime Minister?

If Netanyahu wins 24 seats in Phase 1, as he did in the average of this week’s polls, what would it take for him to reach the Prime Minister office?

One possible scenario:

Prime Minister Netanyahu starts off with his natural partners. He offers Naftali Bennett a senior portfolio and jumps from 24 to 36. Netanyahu brings in the three Haredi parties (UTJ-Shas-Yachad) with promises of the Interior Minister, Appropriations Chairman and plenty of funding.  With 53 seats in the bag, Netanyahu offers Kahlon the Finance Minister position and Netanyahu’s coalition is already at 61. Yisrael Beitenu joins between Phase 2 and Phase 3.

There are challenges of course. Deri might refuse to nominate Netanyahu, even if given a major portfolio. Can Deri and Yishai sit together in the same cabinet? Can Netanyahu get away with selling out to the Haredim? Will Netanyahu be able to overpay Kahlon and/or Liberman for a commitment before they meet President Rivlin?

**

4 – Week 12 Preview

The election is in 30 days. Things have started to stabilize, no party gained or lost a complete seat this week. The ground game is also starting to pick up. Likud and Zionist Union will try to find a way to return the focus to their head-to-head match-up. Yesh Atid, Koolanu and Yisrael Beitenu will try to take advantage of Rivlin’s recent statements. Bayit Yehudi will try to keep rebounding after three consecutive weeks of bad polling with encouraging news following two Friday polls at 13 seats. The Joint Arab List and UTJ will keep focus on their plans to get out their vote.

For more analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my weekly radio interview on Sundays with Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #10 (week of Feb 1-Feb 7 2015) of 9 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 25.3 (24.4) [18] Likud

2nd 23.6 (25.2) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

3rd 13.0 (14.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.0 (12.0) [11] United Arab List

5th 10.4 (09.4) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 07.5 (07.7) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.2 (07.1) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 06.5 (07.1) [10] Shas

9th 05.4 (05.4) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.2 (05.3) [06] Meretz

11th 03.8 (03.3) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

 

68.6 (68.0) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)

51.3 (52.0) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)

 

Changes: Likud replaces Zionist Union as the largest party.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 1 seat; Likud gained 0.9 of a seat and Yachad 0.5.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 1.7 seats; Zionist Union dropped 1.6 seats & Shas lost 0.6 of a seat.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 10:

1 – Herzog’s Bad Week

Politics is a roller-coaster ride. In Israel we have a short election cycle. So here, our rollercoaster ride is running on fast-forward. Labor was averaging 13.4 seats in the polls when the election cycle officially started during the first week of December. That was 1.6 seats under the 15 seats Shelly Yachomich captured in 2013 and 0.4 of a seat over Ehud Barak’s 2009 showing. The following week Opposition Leader Herzog joined in an alliance with recently fired Justice Minister Livni. Herzog jumped from 13.4 seats without Livni to 22.2 seats with Livni. The alliance that went through a few name changes (Labor-Livni/Zionist Camp/Zionist Union) instantly became the largest party in the polls.

Following the dramatic shift of power between week 1 and week 2, Herzog and Netanyahu’s Likud ran neck-and-neck in a majority of polls taken between week 3 and week 8. Both lists took turns at the top, but overall Herzog had a slight lead. Herzog’s joint ticket peaked in week 9 with 25.2. However, this week the Zionist Union dropped 1.6 seats, but this wasn’t the worst news Herzog had this week.

Herzog doubled down on Manuel Trajtenberg as his candidate for Finance Minister. Trajtenberg is Herzog’s Eli Ochana. The socialist base of the Labor Party that backs MKs such as former leaders Shelly Yachomovich and Amir Peretz look at Trajtenberg as the the Netanyahu government’s rubber stamp for economic policy. The base was already not happy with Herzog for overlooking in-house options for the senior three ministry portfolios (Livni, Yadliin) but Trajtenberg added insult to injury.

The thing is that Herzog’s appointment of Trajtenberg to a reserved spot on his list and using him as the economic face of the party is more of a coalition building problem then an internal issue. Appearing on Channel 2 news earlier this week, an angry Livni said: “It is us or him. I expect you (Lapid) to inform the public that you commit to recommend us in order to stop Netanyahu”. Lapid refused to answer. Lapid has announced he wants to keep the Finance portfolio, so why would he do Herzog-Livni a favor?  Kahlon, a former Likud minister, has also said he is running to be Finance Minister, so why would Koolanu voice any support for a future Herzog administration? Meanwhile Netanyahu has avoided making any promises when it comes to what has become such a key portfolio for the coalition building process.

It wasn’t just the polls and Trajtenberg that made this the worst week of the 10-week campaign election cycle for Herzog. Liberman, Litzman and Deri ruled out a Herzog led government this week in various interviews. The dream of a Herzog government without Likud is over. Herzog’s silver lining is that the three are not ruling out a national unity government, but the reality of a national unity government with Netanyahu and Herzog is not considered likely at this point in time.

Another issue Herzog dealt with this week was the restructuring of his field campaign staff due to internal conflicts within the party. The restructuring unfolded as rumors of heated disagreements on key issues between Herzog and Livni emerged. Herzog ends this week with one ally left – Meretz, a party that is now fighting to stay over the new electoral threshold.

2 – Prime Minister: The three phase process and the importance of my bloc polling

The Prime Minister is chosen based on a process that includes three phases. In the first phase we have the electoral elections. The lists that are elected go on to the second phase which is nominating a candidate for Prime Minister at the President’s residence. The third phase is the newly elected Knesset voting to approve the new government with a minimum requirement of 61 seats.

At this point in the first phase we have two candidates for Prime Minister: Netanyahu & Herzog-Livni. Netanyahu’s Likud (25.3) has secured Bayit Yehudi (13.0) and Yachad (03.8) during the first phase. Herzog’s Zionist Union (23.6) has so far only secured Meretz (05.2). The United Arab List (12.0) might consider nominating Herzog in phase 2 but has ruled out voting for a Herzog (or any Zionist government) in phase 3. They might be in the game for the President’s residence but they are out of the game for approving any coalition. It is for this reason that I placed the Arab List in the ‘Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition’ bloc.

Of the 11 lists that are running in this election, this leaves us five parties in the middle. Yesh Atid (10.4) is not going to nominate Netanyahu to President Rivlin. It is just not going to happen. Lapid really does not like Netanyahu. Lapid is not married to Herzog either. If Herzog has no shot at forming a government, Lapid could end up in some long-shot scenarios in a Netanyahu government, assuming Netanyahu has 61 seats without him, to avoid sitting in the opposition. It is for this reason that I placed Yesh Atid in the ‘Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition’ bloc. The other four lists (Koolanu, Shas, UTJ & Yisrael Beitenu) ‘have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition’ bloc’. They might go to the President’s house without nominating Netanyahu but they haven’t ruled out negotiations to join his coalition, either with Herzog or without him. Historically, party leaders usually make a decision to nominate during phase 2 after receiving a concrete promise for a top portfolio from one of the Prime Minister candidates.

A lot can happen between phase 1 and phase 2, as well as between phase 2 and phase 3. In 2013, Livni didn’t nominate Netanyahu in phase 2 but was the first to sign a coalition agreement with him for phase 3. Shas & UTJ nominated Netanyahu in phase 2 and ended up in the opposition. In 2009, Livni gave a victory speech since Kadima won 28 seats in phase 1, but she couldn’t get any other party to nominate her in phase 2. Netanyahu won 27 seats in phase 1, but left the President’s house with the nomination of 65 MKs. Netanyahu’s maneuvers between phase 2 and phase 3 included bringing in Labor, who was to the left of Livni, and leaving out the National Union who nominated him for Prime Minister.

This bloc is not meant to say that this will be the next Netanyahu government by any means. This technical bloc that I have been putting at the bottom of all of my polls has a different level of importance. If the Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yachad-Koolanu-Shas-UTJ-Yisrael Beitenu bloc has less than 61 seats, there will be no way for Prime Minister Netanyahu to form a new government.

3 – Eli Yishai’s Yachad Party & Shas Internal Politics

I was sitting with a person this week and he labeled Yishai’s joint list Yachad a collection of the ‘right-wing misfits’. It is a joint list of outcast MKs, Yishai is former Shas, Chetboun is former Bayit Yehudi, Marzel is sitting in for former MK Ben Ari and you also have a collection of smaller splinter groups that have made their way into unrealistic spots on their list. Yachad is now passing the new threshold in 8 of the 9 polls that were conducted this week, just missing threshold in the ninth poll. They are a protest vote for a collection of different communities from Sephardim to Chardal voters to Chabad to former Kahana supporters.

Shas has taken a dip this week. It is not just about Eli Yishai. The younger generation is disappointed that Former Minister Ariel Attias did not return to the list. The Bukharim are upset that MK Amnon Cohen is not on the list. The old right-wing establishment are upset MK Nissim Zeev, one of the party’s founders, is not on the list. Naming a leftist, Yitzchak Cohen, as Deri’s #2 was not a popular move in the right-wing camps of the party either. Former Yishai fans in the party are disgruntled and feel that former Yishai loyalist MK Avraham Michaeli was punished when he was placed in the 8th position behind all of the other returning Shas MKs. The northern supporters also expressed dissatisfaction with the placement of their representative, veteran MK Yitzchak Vaknin, at #7.

4 – Week 11 Preview

The election is in less than 40 days. The ground game is expected to pick up this week. Likud and Zionist Union are going to try to keep the focus on their head-to-head match-up. Bayit Yehudi is going to look to bounce back after a terrible two weeks of polling. The United Arab List is going to keep working on their plans to get out their vote. Yesh Atid is going to look to keep up their positive momentum which has brought them back to double-digits. Koolanu is going to attack Yesh Atid for centrist votes. UTJ is still focused on their internal organization for Election Day. The smaller parties (Shas, Yisrael Beitenu, Meretz and Yachad) will be fighting for screen-time.

For more analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my weekly radio interview on Sundays with Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #9 (week of Jan 25-Jan 31 2015) of 9 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 25.2 (24.4) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

2nd 24.4 (24.0) [18] Likud

3rd 14.7 (15.6) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 12.0 (11.2) [11] United Arab List

5th 09.4 (09.6) [20] Yesh Atid

6th 07.7 (07.6) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.1 (07.4) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 07.1 (07.4) [10] Shas

9th 05.4 (05.8) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.3 (05.4) [06] Meretz

11th 03.3 (03.4) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

 

68.0 (69.4) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

52.0 (50.4) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Largest Gains: Zionist Union and United Arab List gained 0.8 seats each, Likud gained 0.4.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.9 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.4., Shas & UTJ lost 0.3 each.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 9:

1 – The Craziest week of polling – Unusual news cycle shifts and submitting of the lists

The four polls conducted earlier in the week had Zionist Union ahead, yet Likud led Labor in the average of the five polls conducted later in the week. Bayit Yehudi had a bad week in the polling department following the Eli Ochana saga. The news cycle week started with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s upcoming speech in Washington as the main headline and it slowly shifted towards security matters as the northern border heated up. Thursday’s news cycle was filled with drama as the last parties submitted their lists. The movement caused this week’s polls to jump from one side to another. Next week we will be looking at a full week of numbers following the publication of the final lists.

2 – The Collapse of the Center: Yesh Atid 9.4, Koolanu 7.7, Yisrael Beitenu 5.4

The center keeps shrinking. Yesh Atid, the largest party in the outgoing Knesset, is now polling as the 5th largest party. Yesh Atid is frequently polling at 8 seats, but still manages a 9.4 average thanks to 4 of the 9 polls this week that still put them in double-digits. After facing weeks of declining polls, Lapid went with a very similar list to last time, just two new faces in his top 18.

Kahlon lost his #3 because she didn’t resign from her government job in time to run in the election, the Na Nach Nachman party stole the ‘Koolanu’ name for their party and Kahlon made a last minute decision to merge with new Kadima leader Hasoon for their 2 seats of party funding. Kahlon was averaging in double digits before he picked a name, a list to run with and started an actual campaign.

Another week has gone by, so Yisrael Beitenu has lost more support. Yisrael Beitenu is now polling 9th with just 5.4 seats. Yisrael Beitenu finished with just 4 or 5 seats in a majority of polls conducted this week. Voters seem to still be confused about what Liberman stands for anymore.

3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.1, Shas 7.1, Yachad 3.3

UTJ submitted the same seven people from last time for their top seven spots this time. In the Shas shuffle Shas MKs Zeev, Amnon Cohen and Edri were forced into retirement. The other seven MKs were reordered to take the 2-8 spots after Shas leader Aryeh Deri. Yishai’s party Yachad passed the threshold in a third of the polls, including the only poll conducted after the Yishai-Marzel merger. I will expand on Yishai’s unlikely joint alliance list next week.

4 –United Arab List 12.0 and Meretz 5.3

The results of the first week of polling after the United Arab List was formed are in. Nine polls from six different polling companies all agree – 4th place and 12 seats. For now the alliance is proving to be a fruitful endeavor. Meretz keeps slipping and is now polling 10th. Meretz, who is polling a high of 6 this week, has failed so far in their attempt to convince leftist voters not to vote for the Zionist Union.

5 – 26 Lists and the 3.25% Threshold.

There are 26 lists running in this election and it looks like only 10 or 11 will pass the new threshold. 26 lists is the least number of lists running in an election since 1996 when Prime Minister Netanyahu was elected to his first term. Labor, United Arab List, Yesh Atid, UTJ, Meretz, Likud and Shas submitted 120 seats for this election; Bayit Yehudi submitted 110, Koolanu 33, Yisrael Beitenu 30 and Yachad 26.

6 – Week 9 Preview

Now that the final lists are in the polls will start to stabilize and the general election campaigns will start to kick into full gear. Next week’s average will prove to be interesting.

Candidates for Knesset Lists in English: