Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of March 8-13 2015) of 16 polls from 8 leading polling companies (4 Midgam, 3 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 2 Smith, 2 Dialog, 1 Maagar Mochot, 1 TRI, 1 Geocartography, 0 Sarid & New Wave.)
(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]
1st 24.3750 (23.50) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)
2nd 21.6875 (22.83) [18] Likud
3rd 12.6250 (12.58) [11] The Joint (Arab) List
4th 12.3750 (12.30) [20] Yesh Atid
5th 11.8750 (11.91) [11] Bayit Yehudi
6th 08.8125 (08.25) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
7th 07.2500 (06.83) [10] Shas
8th 06.5625 (06.66) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
9th 05.3125 (05.58) [13] Yisrael Beitenu
10th 05.0625 (05.33) [06] Meretz
11th 04.2500 (04.16) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
65.5625 (66.25) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)
54.4375 (53.75) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)
Changes: First time all 11 parties maintained their position from previous week.
Largest Gains: Zionist Union gained 0.87 of a seat; Kulanu gained 0.56 of a seat and Shas gained 0.42.
Biggest Losses: Likud lost 1.15 seats; Yisrael Beitenu and Meretz both dropped 0.27 of a seat.
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The 3-phase process to the Prime Minister House: Phase 1 – Elections (seats). Phase 2 – President’s Residence (nomination). Phase 3 – Knesset vote (61 MKs needed).
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1 – Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 15:
Tonight – Final Average and Prediction (below).
Sunday – Phase 1 Prediction Analysis.
Monday – Phase 2 Prediction Analysis.
Tuesday – Phase 3 Prediction Analysis (before polls open).
Tuesday – Election Day (7 AM-10 PM Israel time/No post activity)
Tuesday late night – Exit Polls, Initial Results through the night & Analysis
For initial analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my 15th and last weekly Sunday installment with Voice Of Israel’s Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com
2 – Final Prediction based on Knesset Jeremy Model
Zionist Union 25
Likud 22
The Joint (Arab) List 12
Yesh Atid 12
Bayit Yehudi 12
Kulanu 9
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 4
- Methodology: Final model takes into account voter exchange agreements (Zionist Union-Meretz, Likud-Bayit Yehudi, Koolanu-Yisrael Beitneu, Shas-UTJ), disqualified votes (including 15 parties running in Election that are next expected to pass 3.25% threshold and invalid votes), fractions of seats, 120th seat (last seat) scenarios (including crazy mathematical possibilities) and latest momentum model.
- Disclaimer: Final Model doesn’t take into account people who are still undecided (mostly because they don’t know yet who they are voting for). Therefore it is expected that there will be some movement in the last few days among the top parties. I tried to do my best to predict this with my momentum model, but the weekly swing has been very low in recent weeks.
Possible Netanyahu Phase 2: Likud (22), Bayit Yehudi (12), Kulanu (9), Shas (7), UTJ (7), Yisrael Beitenu (5), Yachad (4) =66
Possible Herzog Phase 2: Zionist Union (25), The Joint (Arab) List (12), Yesh Atid (12), Kulanu (9), Meretz (5) =63
- Stay tuned for Phase 1 Analysis tomorrow.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Thank you for your very comprehensive objective coverage.
Thanks Moshe for reaching out and expressing your support.
I want to take this opportunity to thank each of you individually for similar comments in recent posts and apologize for not having a chance to respond to each one.
Jeremy…
I saw Bennett make an announcement on Facebook but I don’t see it on any of the Israel news websites.
Does that mean it is not an important move?
Or is it just Bennett trying to get the votes back that he may have lost to likud
We should be thanking you, Jeremy. Your coverage of the election has been fantastic. Thanks a lot for all your hard work. 🙂
Next expected -> not expected
Yachad (5)? (In coalition)
No predictions regarding a big-party alliance (e.g. ZU+L+YA+BY)?
Why do you think Marzal would be included?
Thank you for everything, and especially posting the agreements. I see Yachad has none, so they could possible just pass and end up with three.
Jenemy 66 and 63 is 130 I think you meant 53 for the left bloc
Could not agree more!
Jeremy,
I have a question for you, with all the turmoil and uncertainty in the region and with obama a president who has U.S. in retreat who DO YOU FEEL SHOULD BE NEXT PM?
If you really want to know this (I prefer this blog to remain non-partisan) here you go (it’s in the first sentence:
http://jeremysaltan.com/about-jeremy-saltan/
Jeremy, really impressed with your objective tone on this site. Our views may be different, but notheless, I have really enjoyed your insight and scientific approach to analyzing the polls. Curious to see how you see phase 2 and 3 playing out.
This is a site that gives a neutral view of what is going on and I’ve been doing so since 2010. Nobody visits this site to hear my personal opinions, that is why I have a personal website. I say clearly on my bio here that I have run political campaigns in English & Hebrew for Israeli municipality, party institution, primary & general elections for various parties/candidates over the years. My private clients are allowed to ask me my personal opinions on issues because they are paying me, I don’t plan on posting them here. 🙂
Interesting. Well it’s a credit to Jeremy that I wouldn’t have guessed based on the coverage in the blog.
I read that when I first started following the site, but as others have said, Jeremy does an excellent job of keeping his politics out and making this a great resource for left, right, and center. all too rare these days…most political sites are an echo chamber. here you have fact based reporting and analysis and a diversity of opinion in the comments section.
Jeremy, if you decide to turn this into a year round blog on the Israeli Political scene in the same style, I would be thrilled and an avid foĺlower. my Hebrew is not what it should be…I think there would be a real audience for a project like that
It is a credit to Jeremy, but I did guess (if not precisely which party) based on what he emphasized in his old (and excellent) summary of Knesset sessions.
I guess I was a little harsh on Zoabi during The Flotilla Affair…
My predictions 🙂
Zionist Union 24
Likud 22.5
The Joint (Arab) List 13
Yesh Atid 10
Bayit Yehudi 12.5
Kulanu 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 6
Note my predictions will be completely off if any of the bottom 3 parties don’t cross the threshold. I obviously hope Meretz doesn’t pass, if they don’t it’ll shock the political world and be great for the right wing. Also not the .5 by Likud and B.Y is because of their vote sharing agreement I believe 1 of them will receive an extra seat just not sure which.
My prediction:
ZU 25
Likud 21
YA 14
List 13
BY 12
Kulanu 8
UTJ 7
Shas 6
YB 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 4
Giora,
The difference between you and Jeremy is that your prediction reflects a momentum factor that Jeremy thinks the polls don’t as yet validate. (Bibi and perhaps even Bennett’s comments Saturday night seems to hint that their fears correspond to your prediction.) In addition I’m still not sure polls are reflecting changes in turnout from 2013 – higher turnout among Arabs and secular, lower turnout on the non- settler right.
The past several elections have had higher Charedi turnout. I can tell you that from personal knowledge also.
My prediction:
ZU 26
Likud 20
YA 13
List 13
BY 13
Kulanu 10
UTJ 7
Shas 8
YB 5
Meretz 5
From your mouth to G-D’s ears. I especially hope that the Kahanists are denied entry in the Knesset. And in stage 2 first Kulanu and then Shas joining ZU.
Adding thanks for this timely and comprehensive data. Can you provide a sense of what percentage of the electorate is still registering undecided and how that matches up with recent voter turnout models? In other words, how many likely voters are going to decide at the last minute?
UTJ and shas are more likely to join Zionist union coalition than joint list.
Well, Lapid has more to lose from joining with us than we do for joining with him. I am more concerned about Livni.
My prediction
Likud 23
ZU 23
UAL 14
BY 14
YA 12
Kulanu 8
UTJ 7
Shas 7
YB 4
Meretz 4
Yachad 4
My reading of the situation on the ground:
1) A lot of young people, including young Arabs, are going to vote, and many for the first time in their lives & they poll poorly. I think they like the top 4 of my list and dislike the bottom 3. I will not be surprised if any of the bottom-fishers don’t make the cut.
2) Team Obama turns everything they touch into garbage and V15 will be no exception. Lesson from Texas: “Battleground Texas” run by Team O, was supposed to turn the state “purple” and propel Demo Wendy Davis into the Governorship over a very vulnerable Greg Abbot. They poured in millions and the polls & media predicted a tight race until the end. She got 39%. Not 49% — 39%. The center in Israel has been moving consistently rightwards & nationalist since 1999; I believe this trend continues.
3) Israelis are shy to say & admit they actually like and agree with Naphtali Bennet. (He has absorbed, with dignity and perseverance, flat-out attack from all quarters in this race). I think many voters will gut-check in the booth. If I’m wrong about this party, it will not be the first time…
4) The real story of this election, which is good news, long-term, for the State of Israel is the UAL putting party & participation ahead of ideology. If only the Jews could do this. The stigma against voting among Israeli Arabs should lessen & many Arabs will come out and vote for parties other the Joint List, as well. There are many latent Arab Zionists out there and the polls can never pick up this & I know many of you reading this simply don’t believe it. Believe it, if not now, you will later.
Ya’ll want an opinion, you got one.
Shavuah Tov.
Thanks for sharing Baruch. Hope you’re right. Look forward to hearing you again on the Yishai Fleisher Show.
Me too BostonMike–I sure miss rapping with Yishai!
If only there were a Zionist Arab party for such Arabs to express those values.
Whats interesting is this Knesset may have a record number of Arabs.
There are arabs in the other parties.
Many Arabs vote Meretz.
I wish I could believe you. Wendy Davis was a loser from day one. V15 astroturf seems to have worked brilliantly. I ONLY see their ads and YA on the net (sometimes BY) – never Likud. Why don’t I see Likud YouTube ads? Heck, I even got a Gimel ad (a satirical one, making fun of people who feel insulted and want to stay home) in my email!
Anyone know where this “Yishai is a leftist” campaign is coming from? The last I see Yachad claims its V15.
hi there…please see my reply to your second post to me on the last thread…the one questioning my right to comment on Israeli security. it explains my personal stake and contains an apology for my earlier reference to the Rabin assasination which was an attempt at a joke in very bad taste which I wish I could delete. I hope you will check the reply and realize that while we may disagree we both want a secure a and strong Jewish state. BibI and Herzog and Bennet and even Gal On want thee same. jews all over the world have a stake in Israel. israel mears a great deal to the diaspora and the diaspora means a great deal to israel. please check the comment. blessings
I’ve tried to stay away from non-direct election topics, but this V15 stuff is such garbage. Aside from there being no evidence that this has been directed from the White House, it’s a pittance compared to the aid Netanyahu has received from Sheldon Adelson, etc. It’s like the right in the U.S. Complaining about ACORN at the same time the Kochs are spending hundreds of billions of dollars. Or Netanyahu saying that the Adelson newspaper is the only pro-Netanyahu newspaper. Apparently having never heard of the J Post. Next he’ll be saying Caroline Glick is part of the international left-wing conspiracy out to get him.
This not a new tactic. It’s been used by some of the worst demagogues, of which Netanyahu is one.
I agree.
agreed. mark McKinnon a moderate republican consultant associated with John McCain won international awardsfor his work on Yair Lapid’s behalf in 2013 and is working for nm again this year. several Clinton campaign veterans worked for shimon Peres in the race he lost by a whisker to Bibi after Rabin. I would be shocked if bibi has not employed some American consultants not to mention that nearly 90% of his campaign contributions come from foreign sources, as you note, Shelly Adelson chief among them. Shelly did great thing for the diaspor with Birthright but other than that he seems like a wildly vain megalomaniac whose business straddles the line between acceptable corruption and outright gangaterism. see: Macau
I bet bibi longs for the day he can stop kissing his ass. much as I want him replaced, I do have a personal fondness for Bibi…we graduated from the same high school outside Philadelphia for one thing and I just feel I would enjoy the chance to break bread, pick his brain, and drink l’chaim…as long as Sara stayed home, ha. one all so must respect his clutch even as it may be finally about to doom him. he is smart, maagnetic, an excellent English communicator, he passionately loves Israel…but he may love his own power even more. this is what the last two weeks have shown. the speech to congress, while typically mengaging, offered nothing new and was seen rightly as a blatant attempt to secure the election which alienated not just the president who has steadfastly supported Israel and who the votes of 78% of American jews, but also a big chunk of the American electorate. erected are those who will always hate israel, and of course its every misstep is shouted from the rooftops by a a faction…but I can tell you that under Netanyahu’s leadership many non Jews in America, and many young Jews have begun to disapprove of Israeli policy…I am talking about righteous goyim, people who are not in the least anti Semitic. People who should be, have been our friends but who can not take much more of Mr. Netanyahu
among manyAmerican Jews like myself thereis the feeling that his policies have produced a deterioration of security, raised the west bank to a boil, and fought two wars in gaza in three years that have left Hamas in power and strengthened their political standing, while also providing propaganda that has been used to vilify Israel worlewide.what is his strategy for security?it is always reassuring to watch pledge retribution whenIsraelisare killed by terror.but where is the long view?his speech to congress exemplifies this problem.
it was a gambit to shore up his political fortunes but what of the long term effects of thumbing his nose at the president and aligning himself with the worst element of the Republican Party so openly?did the speech do anything to substantively influence the Iran issue?if the answer is no, as I fear is the case, and if by making his speech he created a pet is divideoverIsreal
in Israel’s indispensable ally, one must conclude he gave it for profoundly selfish reasons. To guard against an existential threat to Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career.
judging by the polls,I believe many saw what I saw.
I think ZU wins 26 mandates. I think Likud has a hard night. Believe Bennett may slightly over perform as he is the true love of much of the hard line crowd and a I think there is Bibi fatigue there as well…some Likudniks may opt to vote their hearts, for Bennett. obviously Yachad Mertz and Lieberman risk the threahold…think Yachad most likely to fall below as seems like since the debate a lot of Shas defectors have come home to Deri. Meretz will squeak by but it will be tough as much of the Jewish left is behind Herzog and smells victory and liberal Arabs that have voted Meretz before ate energized by the Joint List looking like the 3rd largest bloc with s chance to have real influence. Think Lieberman is safest with his base among Russian immigrants.
sorry for the novel. and for all the editing disasters…still don’t have the hang of these touch screen keyboarss, auto correct etc
final point…while I will not count Bibi out until the day Herzog is PM I think the coalition guesswork is so dependent on results as to be irrelevant now. If Likud loses by 5 plus mandates, a Herzog led coalition of some form is guaranteed to form in my opinion. If the margin is 3 to 4 seat Herzog gets first try but there will be fierce maneuvering and horse trading but the odds are still on Buji. 1 to 2 margin and a lot rides on Rivlin, and as a betting man I would think Bibi comes out on top. man is the ultimate political survival
I just think that a lot of the discontent and fatigue with Bibi is cresting at the worst possible time for him…it found expression with Lapid’s shocking over performance two years ago, and has only grown since then. Now there is a credible alternative….not thrilling, but credible…a man of the center..his father’s son and his uncle Abba Eban’s nephew.
I think the swing away from Bibi will be bigger than indicated. he is acting like a beaten like a man who is about to lose acts. imagine is Herzog wasn’t such dull rag…he would be running away with this
like I said however Bibi is a figjter…if anyone can salvage this it is he. I am prepared to eat crow.
Absolutely!
1. It is different because they are skirting the election law.
2. I see an absolute flood of V15 ads everywhere on the net. There were two ads in the middle of Bib’s speech. I have not seen Likud commercials.
You actually mentioned Koch? First of all, ACORN received government money and committed fraud. Secondly, Koch is not Republican; they fought Reagan regarding the cold war. Thirdly, the money spent by Soros and ton of others on the Left, plus the oceans of money spent by the foundations such as Ford (mostly controlled by the Left) in the US and Israel completely dwarfs them.
The attacks against Koch (and Fox and Yisrael Hayom) show that the Left is not just content with a bigger megaphone; it wants to squash ALL dissent. It is truly fascist.
Mzk, Koch is not a Republican? Tell that to all the Republicans who get millions from them for their campaigns. Or all the money they spent on ads to get them elected.
As for Soros, please point me to how much he has spent on U.S. elections.
That V15 is spending money does not mean it is spending money given to it by the White House.
On 2) you’re entirely wrong. No serious Dem ever thought Wendy Davis had anything other than an outside chance to win as Texas givernor. They are playing the long game. The state IS turning purple but it’s not there yet. As for Obama ruining everything he touches he won 2 general elections with some of the most impressive turnout in history so, again, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Are you a serious Dem, Terry? Real Texas Dems ain’t blue, ain’t purple, they are pragmatic-populist-centrist-traditionalist just like their Republican colleagues. The State of Texas is saving the USA from its self-imposed decline, just as the State of Israel is saving the Middle East from complete instability and anarchy.
baruch, my post below yours, beginning ‘thanks for the analysis” was meant to go as a reply to your predictions post earlier in the thread hope you will see it
Terry levine,
you know why you can say that the turnout for Obama was “impressive” – because all he did was spreading lies about Romney, who REALLY cared about the middle class and the security of America, and lying americans right up in their faces about obamacare. And then so many naive americans believed for a second time Obama’s lies…
Texas will be majority Latino in 2 generations and anything but red. And unless Israel withdraws from the West Bank, the Jewish state will be majority Arab in the same amount of time.
Terry levine,
why do you assume that latinos will always vote Dem? If you think of it it is not that likely to continue for an eternity as latinos (and also african-americans) have had an even worse time during Obama than under any republican presidency. And also when latinos realize that the dems assume that latinos will vote for them and does not help latinos get a better life, thing will turn around. Also I would point out that e.g. Texas latinos are more conservative than latinos generally in liberal states. So I do not see Texas get purple.
thanks for the analysis. you raise a good point on youth vote. have to disagree on v15…Wendy Davis funding largely came from National women’s gro6ps, not the Obama team. she did worse than many hoped but few ever hoped she would win. the faCT is that 8n 08 and 12 the Obama campaigns were among the most successful of all time at targeting and turning out their voters.think what you will of obama, but the technical skil of his campaign organization is unquestionable. the same strategies could have an even greater relative effect in a small country like Israel. ya never know but this could be a factor…reports I have seen say that it is an impressive organization and that it has lLikud spooked. I suspect you may be right about bennet as well but that his gains will be at likud ezpense.
THANK YOU for your closing note of hope, beautifully expressed. Shavuah Tov
Got it. Let’s not debate Texas politics here: My point is: I believe Team Obama meddles with Media and PR in everybody’s business worldwide–and I mean Everybody–with unsuccessful and generally deleterious results. Ask the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Poles, the Czechs, the South Koreans the French, the Venezualens and Iran, too. They all dislike him exceedingly.
Truth: All my Palestinian/Jerusalem Arab friends take BB over O any day.
Yes Baruch. Because Adelson is not doing any meddling in other people’s politics. At least Obama is elected. Adelson is just a right wing goon.
I son’t wholly disagree with you about obama. he has been a great disappointment to me. his Syria policy has been almost comically mishandled and he just doesn’t seem up to the job. the bibi Obama feud has long amused me and on a personality basis, i’ve come to prefer bibi. in a tough fight bibi inspires more confidence for sure. I think actually if you combined the best qualities of both men, you would have a leader of historic capabilities.
my point was not about obama’s policies or philosophy, about which reasonable men can disagree and I personally have mixed feelings. my point was only that his campaigns were historically well run, and he won because he was able to identify the elements of the electorate where he had disproportionate levels of support, and by targeting those elements in a sophisticated, hihhly effective way, he was able to change the makeup of the electorate. this was an historic accomplishment. i’ve often ruefully remarked to fellow us liberals that is he were half as good at governing as he was at getting elected, they’d be carving his face into Mt Rushmore
so…if v15 really is successfully applying those methods in Israel, it could make a real difference. One example is the youth vote, which you mentioned. we know there are a lot of young people in israel who are deeply religious and engaged on the political right. there are also a good many secular, socially liberal young people who tend to vote at low rates. targeting that latter group effectively could obviously impact the results. just an example off the top of my head. I see it less as team obama meddling than as center left operatives from the us sharing innovations with center left campaigns in israel. there is a long history of American consultants working on Israeli elections.
who known what they are doing and how effectively but I think part of the reason the right has made an issue of this group is fear of the possible successes of this new method of targeting and turning out voters.
will be interesting to see if these v15 efforts amount to anything!
I sense we have some differing views but I enjoyed your 4 points post and you strike me as a thoughtful man who I would enjoy having a cup of coffee with if the paths of our lives journeys should ever cross. shalom
Here is going out on a limb with my prediction.
ZU: 28
Likud: 19
JL: 15
YA: 15
BY: 12
Kulanu: 9
Shas: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
YB: 4
Bonus prediction: turnout at 74 percent
My 2 cents:
ZU – 24
Likud – 23
BY – 13
UL – 12
YA – 12
Kulanu – 9
Shas – 8
UTJ – 7
Meretz – 4
YB – 4
Yachad – 4
Put it in the books! 🙂
My prediction:
Ale Yarok – 120
Victor – At lest they are libertarian. It might be better than what we got.
I hope.
this is my hunch too but wasn’t prepared to go out on the limb. I think this is far more likely that 24-23. I also agree that Y A does better than polled.
I just posted that all the coalition handicapping is likely to be made irrelevant by events…
if the over under on Likud mandates was 29 I would bet the under,. they stink of defeat.
I like your high turnout call too. Netanyahu fatigue has been under appreciated for some time…now there is a viable alternative, netanyahu’s bold dc gambit which he counted on swinging the election had backfired and he is looking desperate and a little unhinged. everything Israelis have always disliked but found reason to overlook is on full display…and security is no longer his get of jail free card.
much respect for the ballsy call
meant to say that is the over under on Likud mandates was 20, not 29. I will call 19 for likud. think bayit yehudi does better than you call, Chris. I think a lot of the hard line likud supporters may vote their heart with bennet. they are sick of Netanyahu too
Question still remains: what is actual size of Undecided (as % of likely voters ) of last poll?
I predict that Kulanu will get the last minute boost.
at the expense of…?that would seem like a disaster for likud…
don’t see zu losing supoort, even as they held a slight lead in the polls through much of the campaign it felt unimaginable that Netanyahu might actually lose. that has changed
center left has the chance to defeat a long time nemesis…right is tasked with saving bibi’s bacon, but they are sick of him for their own reasons. I think bennet benefits from this but Kulanu could too. helps that Kahlon has run a smooth, positive campaign focused on housing and cost of living…much like Lapid’s 2013. Kahlon’s not a talk show host, but he does have a smoothk, reassuring presence and comes off well on tv. you might be on to something JL
I’ve been reading this poll site daily for months now, and must say Thank You, Jeremy, for all your great work!
Predictions: 1. Recent boost to ZU comes at expense of Yesh Atid and Ultra-Left: Meretz out of Knesset for failing to cross the minimum threshold.
2. Kulanu doesn’t gain much more, but Bibi offering Kahlon Finance is crucial, as are Kahlon calling himself “center-right” and refusing to sit with parties that are “anti-Zionist.”
3. Latest allegations from US, that Obama’s State Department may have funded anti-Bibi NGO, and is ready to release a “preliminary agreement” allowing Iran to keep nuke power “within days”, will rally the Right over the weekend, so expect Likud and BY to gain, plus Haredim parties.
4. The Arab Parties will not recommend Buji, let alone sit in government with any “Zionist” parties.
5. Rivlin, swallowing his pride, gives Netanyahu first crack at forming coalition.
6. Barack Obama will not be pleased with the results of this election!
JCA your prediction in point one is less then objective.
The right pro Netanyahu bloc (Likud, BY and Yachad) and left bloc (ZU, Meretz, and YA) have always had 80 seats between them.
2 weeks ago the left bloc had 39 seats now they have 42 (resulting in the right bloc having 38) that means that there has been a shift towards the left.
I agree that Obama will not be pleased with the outcome but nor will Netanyau or Herzog.
Lets have some predictions of the date of the next election.
All good points, JCA, based on political truths and not wishful-thinking.
I believe a high turnout will benefit the right (particularly if the young come out to vote).
Although a very high turnout will damage the Charedim and might cause Yachad not to reach the threshold and the UTJ to only get 6 seats.
it all depends on where the turnout increases are coming from. the right aligned youth are relatively politically active. part of the v15 effort is to identify groups that would tend to vote left and seek to get them engaged and to the polls. the secular, socially liberal youth would strike me as an example. reports are that labor’s organization is much more visible and active while likud is less so usually turnout jumps benefit whichever side is out there engaging disaffected voters and bringing them into the process.
to give a us example, obama in 08 won in North carolina, a conservative southern state. they had an extremely high turnout. it benefitted obama because his campaign spent lots of resources on mobilizing turnout among young professionals inurban areas, African americans, and students.
I think a high turnout Tuesday would tend to benefit the left but also Bennett who seems to be the right bloc candidate inspiring the most passion.
I think this is a referendum on bibi and bibi is going to come out the loser even if he manages to hold his ofdice. I would bet on a fragile Herzog coalition and unsettled politics. I think if likud under performs seriously there will be a lot of pressure on bibi to resign and likud to join the govt under new leadership
http://shilohmusings.blogspot.com/2015/03/israeli-elections-2015-5775-prediction.html
Is there any english Live coverage on election night available per stream? (I24 maybe?)
https://www.facebook.com/events/424392354389373/
My prediction for what its worth:
ZU 22
Likud 22
Lapid 15
UAL 15
BY 14
Kachlon 7
Yahad 6
UTJ 6
Shas 5
Meretz 4
YB 4
Now I wil exlplain my reasoning. I often use Google Trends to crowdsource sentiment with a week to go and see shifts from the month before. In 2013 this predicted a huge jump for Lapid in two days to go. I have used that here as well. Yishai is surging on Trends as is Lapid. Herzog is dipping. Kachlon is flat as well as Bennet and Shas.
I then took in account the youth vote for Bayit Yehudi. There are tons of 18 year old religious zionists voting as a block this election for the first time. This plus the army ads 2 to BY.
The UAL will be higher because the Arabs are turning out.
Coupled with the Yahad trend higher on Google searches in the last few days I took account a few factors. One they are a new party with various interest groups that are hard to poll. Second, Nissim Zeev not being on Shas’s list will come back to haunt Deri and cannot be polled accurately. Three, there are admorim and Chabad that both Marzel and Yishai are close to. Impossible to poll that. Lastly, Shas admitting they are for two states and UTJ saying they would sit with the left will change the equation.
According to Google Trends Lapid is surging at ZU’s expense.
David Mark: Like your utilizing Google Trends to guage (youth) sentiment, as this is invisible to (most) pollsters. You corroborate my previous comment in saying: “There are tons of 18 year old religious zionists voting as a block this election for the first time”. We both arrived at BY 14, from different methods. Israel is a young country, Arab & Jew, and they are now going to weigh in.
Agreed.
The bottom line is that Yachad siphoned votes from Bayit Yehudi, and Kulanu from Yesh Atid. It is a shame that new parties constantly pop up like mushrooms and confuse everybody. The public gets taken in with every new false messiah that enters each time. Often by the next cycle, the upstart party is forgotten, with the newest Johnny-come-lately getting all the attention.
One thing that also makes little sense is the left attacking Netanyahu for focusing on security at expense of domestic issues like housing. Isn’t it more important to stay alive even if you have to live in a shack, rather than having a mansion but being blown up in a terror attack, G-d forbid? How can anyone put economic issues above security? People don’t appreciate how much Netanyahu has done for them, both as Finance minister and as PM. The economy is strong, and terror has been under control. Why rock the boat with an inexperienced, unknown newcomer, who may be forced to put sworn enemies of Israel in security positions to cobble a coalition?
My 2 cents:
ZU: 25
YA: 19
Likud: 19
JAL: 13
BY: 12
Kulanu: 9
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 5
YB: 4
Yahad: 0
And for the coalition:
ZU+YA+Kulanu+Meretz+YB=62
What exactly makes you think Lieberman will sit with a left-wing coalition? He’s the LEAST likely of the right wing block to do so.
He could. He’s very secular. And the right has become beholden to the religious loons, BY included.
I love it but your YA is too high.
His coalition doesn’t work without YA ridiculously overperforming or the left forgetting that Liberman is a corrupt pseudo fascist.
Secular, yes, but ULTRA nationalist and will not tolerate the kinds of concessions any government with Meretz and Livni in it would make.
Liberman, for all his sliminess, seems of late to open to compromise on peace. More than I can say for gutless Netanyahu who has shown his only objective is staying in power, not actually showing courage and solving problems.
1. I know YA at 19 is unrealistic. That said, they were polling around 12 in the previous election and ended up getting 19. I’m not sure how well the pollsters adjusted their models if at all. I don’t expect YA to do as well this time around, but i still think they’ll surprise on the upside.
2. YB and Meretz said they won’t sit together but there’s more common ground than what meets the eye:
– they both want Bibi gone
– YB would totally support a Meretz/YA bill for civil weddings (perhaps even same-sex weddings).
– Lieberman supports in its own way the 2-state solution (with land and population swaps).
– I think ZU will have an easier time sitting those 2 together than YA and the Haredim.
Terry, so Liberman is slimy but okay because he’s willing further your preferred agenda?
I have been reading Jeremy’s site for years and comment for the first time. Thank you to Jeremy and all the commentators.
Request: Jeremy, can you start live threads in between your posts on election day and the days following? I value reading the differing viewpoints of commentators. This site has become a very valuable “insiders” gathering place.
Not to the level of what a coalition with Meretz and Livni will concede to. Two-state solution, yes. But Netanyahu supports this too, when it comes with recognition and security guarantees. Lieberman will NOT go with the left here.
very interesting interview with Michael Oren, 4th on Kulanu list and former ambassador to the United States, by Jeffrey Goldberg http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/03/undoing-the-damage-netanyahu-has-done-to-us-israel-relations/387817/
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/192652#.VUPP-o7F-30
Bennet this evening in Rabin Square:
“There is no need to divide the Land of Israel to lower the price of cheese”.
Chew on that, Oren, Kahlon & Other Kulanu “kingmaker” disloyalists.
Then this MK sang Jerusalem of Gold playing guitar accompaniment.
(Similar to Mayor Barkat tackling a young knife-wielding attacker).
Brilliant.
True.
Lincoln-esque
BY 14+
I wonder how this affects Phase 2. Will this mean Kahlon is more likely to go with Buzhi?
http://www.timesofisrael.com/kulanus-kahlon-rebuffs-finance-minister-offer-from-netanyahu/
Who knows and who cares what is going on in this guy’s head?
This kind of speculation, via commentary, is not rational.
Kahlon has joined the ranks of the pure political power player.
Not at all. It just means Kahlon wants as broad a base of support as possible for this election. If he makes clear who he is going to endorse or join a coalition with now, he will lose voters from those who don’t want that individual as Prime Minister. By remaining vague until the election, he can entice voters from all sides to support him. The more telling point is that Bibi did make the promise to make Kahlon Finance Minister, while Labor did not. Kahlon will go with whomever actually does make this offer–he just claims to not believe that the offer from Bibi is genuine yet. But Bibi knows he cannot form a coalition without Kahlon, and if both sides make him the offer of Finance Minister, he is really more inclined toward the right, as he is generally with Bibi on security and defense matters. His disagreements with Bibi are economic, so Bibi will placate him on this issue however he needs to because of how badly he needs him.
This is a awesome site – TY Jeremey. Here is my prediction.
ZU: 23
Likud: 23
YA: 14
BY: 14
JAL: 13
Kulanu: 9
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
YB: 5
Yahad: 5
Mertez: 0
I think the large families of the Mizrachi BY voters are being way undercounted. They also tend to support Likud and some Yachad. UTJ can get 8 of R aurbach mends fendces
Kulanu will choose the next government. They already refused the Treasury portfolio so it looks like their leaning ZU. What’s interesting is that there might be a “grand coalition” if Likud dumps Bibi after the election.
read the Oren interview I posted above. I think kulanu is going zu barring a miraculous likud triumph. I actually think that what you mention regarding likud is a distinct possibility, if they finish with fewer than 20 mandates. there will be intense pressure to dump bibi and enter the n govt under new leadership for the sake of stability. the long knives are out in the press already with anonymous likud sources saying the poor campaign is due to Bibi and bibi only.
in this scenario bennett leads the opposition. he is the true voice of the religious nationalist right which while ascendent is still outside the Israeli mainstream so he would be cast perfectly in that role.
I would bet bennett is hoping for exactly this scenario. remember there is no love lost between him and netanyahu. and with a bibi less likud in herzog’s govt bennett would likely be the leading right wing contender next time around.
Again, he didn’t refuse it, he is simply waiting until after the election to commit because he doesn’t want to lose voters from either side, which is what would happen if he commits to one side now. One of his big advantages is his broad-based support.
I think the big factor will be turnout. The older crowd are traditional Labor Zionists. If they come out more than normal it’s good fr Herzog/Livni. Arab turnout will likely be higher, also good for the Arab list and Meretz. Young people might help Netanyahu but they aren’t as likely to come out.
Based in statistical data or your opinion?
Shout out to Knesset Jeremy:
Are you posting Phase 1 Analysis this day of Sunday – Yom Rishon?
You have a captive readership here…
Are you late in getting back to a device from Rabin Square?
yours truly, B
Hello Baruch.
Here is the Phase 1 Link:
KJ
My Man—Here I go, may I read with clarity, thanks for your service,
Jeremy thanks again for your effort. One question for all of you: do you consider realistic an alliance between Arab List and ZU? how much in percent? i remember some clear anti-zionist statement from Balad. thanks to all
Updated weekly graph of the Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls. Last one. Pronounced continuous trends over the last 4-5 weeks are Likud down and Kulanu up. The Yesh Atid upward trend line has flattened the past 2 weeks.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d49cWZJMC3-5ZcaNh6MeVVg-EMdEPdRuaMZS3cPygeI
Thanks again Jeremy for posting this poll over the election cycle. Thanks too to all the comments appreciating this weekly graph over the past months. Your appreciation has been a pleasure.
Livni to step aside in Israeli PM rotation with Herzog. I think this means they worked out a deal so Lapid becomes PM in 2 years and Kahlon becomes Finance Minister. #israelex http://www.israelelection2015.org/blog/2015/3/16/israeli-media-livni-to-relinquish-pm-rotation