Dialog conducted a poll of 714 people with a 3% margin of error that was taken out for Haaretz and released on March 12 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
65 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
What a disasterous poll. Likud at only 21 but still BY is at a low level as 11 seats. Can things realistically get much worse??
Hope so!
I am thinking about how to kindly respond to your leftist bull**it, but after all your terrible comments does far I have no more words to tell you!
I love your report!
Thank you
Can you please tell me which figure is correct – 3.25% or four seats? The math doesn’t work.
3.25%
IOW in a very rare constellation, a party can get in the Knesset with 3 seats.
And it the last elections Hadash gained 4 seats with 2.99% of the votes.
vote exchange agreement gave them 4th seat
OK, Thanks!
Finally got an answer!
Jeremy,
Would be possible that a party got below electoral threshold and after voter exchange got above the threshold and got MK´s?
Thanks!
Impossible to use voter exchange agreement if under threshold
O.K. Thanks!
Looks like an outlier for Kulanu.
Right-religious: 54 MK´s
Center-left-arabs: 55 MK´s
Kahlon: 11 MK´s.
Kahlon may be the key:
9:40 P.M. Likud officials estimate Kachlon would recommend Herzog, not Netanyahu, for PM
Likud officials estimate that Kulanu leader Moshe Kachlon would endorse Netanyahu’s rival Isaac Herzog when he meets with the president after the elections. Officials close to the prime minister said Kachlon would prefer to join a Herzog-led government rather than to partner with Netanyahu and a rightist coalition, should both party leaders offer him the finance portfolio.
However, it is unclear whether Likud is basing these estimations on some inside knowledge about Kachlon’s intentions, or if it’s a strategy calculated to bring disillusioned Likud voters back into the fold, stopping them from voting for Kachlon’s party. (Jonathan Lis)
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.646387
Very likely the latter. First of all, Herzog has already committed the offer of Finance Minister to someone else. Netanyahu will make the offer. Secondly, I think it is pretty well understood that even if Herzog gets the first nod to try to form a government, it is an EXTREME longshot to succeed, because the Arab parties will not join ANY Zionist coalition, the Orthodox parties will not sit with Yesh Atid, the party that ended the Haredi draft exemption, and this would leave the natural partners of Labor, Yesh Atid, and Meretz, even in the best case scenario a good 12-15 seats short of a coalition. This is likely an attempt to shore up Likud support and strengthen Netanyahu’s next coalition.
And under the former circumstance, what would happen is it would be another few months before Israel’s next government is in place, because Herzog would have 42 days, he would fail, and this would require the election to be repeated all over again, and then God only knows what hell would break loose in the interim. I think Kahlon would try to avoid that. He said in the debates that his disagreements with Bibi are on social and economic issues, and Netanyahu is focused on security right now, so he is in a position to do whatever he can to placate Kahlon on the areas where they disagree, in order to keep a government that is more likely to ensure Israel’s security.
Can Israel have minority governments like existed in Canada? I’m thinking of a situation where the Arab List, while not “joining” the Herzog government, provides him with a vote of confidence in the Knesset, giving him a “Knesset majority” albeit not a governmental one reflected in his cabinet.
Yes
It isn’t what Yesh Atid did, because frankly Bennet signed on also. It’s the bigoted way they ran their campaign. And who will actually agree to changes.
Yes, but then we would get another day off.
Why do you use the term “Orthodox”? Using the American definition, everybody is “Orthodox”, just about. Certainly Bennet is Orthodox, Kahlon is semi-religious Orthodox, Bibi is non-religious Orthodox, YA pretty much goes from religious Orthodox to non-religious Orthodox.
@mzk1 i believe that when he says Orthodox he is referring to religious Orthodox; aka haredi parties etc. where there are “orthodox” parties like Shas and there are secular parties like Yesh Atid
I’d bet good money Herzog will break that promise and offer Finance to Kahlon immediately after the election.
Yes, Kahlon could be minister of Finance with Herzog and Manuel Trajtenberg deputy minister of Finance or president of the Knesset Finance Committee.
I’ve seen reports that Likud is as low as 18.
A national unity government of the Zionist Union, Likud, Yesh Atid and Kulanu brings 68 seats. Bring in Shas and you’re at 75. More ministries to go around; a moderate yet tough negotiating posture with the Palestinians; a strong social agenda and bridging of the north- south, Ashkenazi-Mizrahi divide.
Avi 2
Wishful thinking.
Can we take bets when the next elections will be held?
Moshe,
Depends what Mr. Rivlin is wishing and thinking and how proactive he plans to be in stage 2 consultations.
Hey, c’mon, don’t you want another day off?
And as far as I’m concerned, the fewer laws the Knesset passes, the better.
Likud will not take a back seat to Labor, and CERTAINLY not when the right-wing block beats the left-wing block. Also, Shas will not sit with Yesh Atid.
According to this poll, the Right’s losing.
Likud+BY+YB+Yahad = 41
ZU + Yesh Atid + Meretz = 42
Kulanu = 11
Shas + UTJ = 13
JAL = 13
Basically, the Right can only come to power at this point by relying on the antipathy between the haredim and Lapid. If Lapid and the haredim can live together in a coalition, the Right’s sunk. Even worse for the Right, while the Left’s base is the most energized it’s been since the 90s and the JAL is looking at higher participation from Arab Israelis than at any time since the 90s, all reports from the Right are indicating voter-apathy. If there is yet another of the surprises which so many of Israel’s recent elections have brought, it will probably not be a good surprise for the Right. It’s likely to be more like their voters staying home, while the centrists, ZU and the JAL scoop up another 5-8 seats. If that happens, the Right really will be doomed for this election cycle.
I think that Netanyahu has a better than 50% chance of winning right now, but it’s not much better than 50%, and, if his support erodes any further, then a Netanyahu government really will become virtually impossible.
From your lips to god’s ears. However, the right-wing in Israel usually is more motivated than the left. While I concede that the Left and left-leaning voters may be more mobilized this year than in elections past, I find it hard to believe that the right, which runs on nationalism and religion and believes concessions to the Palestinians would be a catastrophic event (the opposite is not always true — I don’t think most Centrist voters realize the extent of the danger of a bi-national state on the horizon) will not make it out to the polls in force
Seriously, how can you can it “national unity” if it’s only 68?
If this poll is accurate, then Bibi’s coalition (despite my political views, I do not believe ZU has a realistic chance to form a coalition) is going to be incredibly unstable. I believe this poll is close to the truth, at this point in time, because most other polls this week are in the same ballpark. I think it will be a wild ride until the next elections.
Every other poll has Kulanu at 8. Something is wrong with this one. It is probably as reliable as the poll putting Likud at 26 and Zionist whatever they call themselves at 21. We will just have to wait and see.
The only poll that counts is the one on March 17. Netanyahu has lost before in the polls, significantly to Perez, before he won in the actual election.
What parties would support Kahlon as PM? ZU + Meretz + YA + Kulanu =53 subbing in heredi for YA brings 57. Bring YB along and that is a government. Could be like darkhorse candidates in old US party conventions.
If Kahlon had 20 seats, basically everyone would support Kahlon as PM (except for the Joint Arab List).
The problem, of course, is that most polls are showing him in single digits (and even here, in the best showing we’ve seen from him, he’s got 11 seats). If Kahlon was running as leader of Likud, as Likud’s poor performance seems to be due to anti-Netanyahu sentiment, rather than a large shift leftward on the part of Israelis, then he’d breeze to a victory.
The other problem is that Kahlon would only get such a shot if both ZU and Likud failed to form a government first, which is extremely unlikely.
YB has also ruled out any possibility of sitting in a government with Meretz
What are the odds of Kahlon emerging as a “consensus” candidate that a unity government could form around? If Rivlon selects Kahlon, then Likud, Labor, YA, and YB could probably live with the decision and form a government (particularly because no one would be assured of being Rivlin’s second choice). That’s the makings of a pretty stable, “centrist” government.
Alternatively, given his personal antipathy towards Netanyahu, and the bad blood a lot of parties feel towards Bibi, could Rivlin throw everyone for a loop and nominate a Likud back-bencher? The name that comes to mind is Benny Begin. Like Rivlin, he’s a true old-line Likudnik, an opponent of the 2 state solution, but also generally well-regarded by everyone. Kahlon says he wants the “old Likud.” Deri says he wants the “old Likud.” There’s no one more “old Likud” than Begin. Beyond them, Lapid has ruled out Netanyahu, but not the Likud itself. Labor has ruled out a unity government led by Netanyahu, but not one led by Likud. And, while Obama won’t like Begin’s politics, he has no personal feud with the man. It’s a long-shot. But is it impossible?
But it’s not up to him, no?
Netanyahu is like a container of milk way past its expiration date. But I would be stunned if he voluntarily gave up power.
I will give you my take on Bibi, personally I like him, but what I don’t like is that he pushes away many young talents who he thinks challenge him in Likud. But because he keeps winning elections Likud will not vote in another leader. Only were he to lose would this likely happen. I still expect a right religious majority, I still believe that Shas will do a little better than these polls suggest as may UTJ. However things go I have no doubt that the right- religious block will have polled significantly more votes than the left.
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