Latest Entries »

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 600 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 2 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0.1% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Midgam conducted a poll of 501 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Army Radio on October 3 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.5% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.9% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

All other parties under 1%

Updated KnessetJeremy Average (7 Polls released from Sep 28-Oct 3)

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3232.133.2-1.1
Yesh Atid2424.123.80.3
National Unity1312.412.20.2
Religious Zionist1212.4120.4
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu65.95.60.3
Labor5550
Meretz54.94.80.1
Hadash-Taal444.2-0.2
Raam4440
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Bayit Yehudi2.42.11.98%1.02%
Balad1.71.60%1.64%-0.04%
Kara Party1.20.90%0.34%0.56%
Zalika Party10.70%0.94%-0.24%
Burning Youth0.60.50%0.70%-0.20%

The KnessetJeremy Average shows Netanyahu’s bloc dropping from 60 to 59 seats. Likud took the largest drop of 0.8 of seat. Labor dropped for the second straight week, this week 0.2 compared to 0.4 last week. Hadash-Taal also dropped for the second straight week, with the same marks both weeks.

Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4 and Gantz’s party also gained 0.4 this week. Lapid gained 0.2 for the second consecutive week. Smotrich’s party also gained 0.2 following a 0.2 gain last week.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3232.433.2-0.8
Yesh Atid242423.80.2
National Unity1312.612.20.4
Religious Zionist1212.2120.2
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu665.60.4
Labor54.85-0.2
Meretz54.84.80
Hadash-Taal444.2-0.2
Raam4440
     
Netanyahu Bloc59   
Lapid w/H-T61   
Lapid w/o H-T57   
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Bayit Yehudi2.42%1.98%0.02%
Balad1.71.48%1.64%-0.16%
Kara Party1.21.02%0.34%0.68%
Zalika Party10.86%0.94%-0.08%
Burning Youth0.60.52%0.70%-0.18%

Midgam conducted a poll of 504 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Green Leaf

0.0% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

0.0% [–] Tzomet (Green)

Panels conducted a poll of 720 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on September 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 590 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on September 29 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Panels conducted a poll of 1433 people with a 2.6% margin of error that was published by Maariv on September 30 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.0% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Kantar conducted a poll of 652 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 1 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.8% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

The KnessetJeremy Average shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal. Likud gained the most with 0.6%. Religious Zionist went up 0.2 to take 3rd place away from Gantz. Yesh Atid and Raam also gained 0.2%. Gantz’s National Unity lost 0.2% from the previous average and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu also lost 0.2% this week. Labor and Hadash-Taal both lost 0.4% each.

We are starting to see more and more polls that give Netanyahu’s bloc 61 or more seats. This trend should continue going into next week and it is likely the next average will already give the former Prime Minister a majority.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3333.232.60.6
Yesh Atid2423.823.60.2
Religious Zionist1212.2120.2
National Unity121212.2-0.2
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu65.65.8-0.2
Labor555.4-0.4
Meretz54.84.80
Raam44.240.2
Hadash-Taal444.4-0.4
  
Netanyahu Bloc60
Lapid w/H-T60
Lapid w/o H-T56
  

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on September 21 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.3% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.3% [–] Green Leaf

Midgam conducted a poll of 508 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 22 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

05 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.4% [–] Green Leaf

0.4% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

0.0% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 702 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 22 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 717 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on September 22 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 715 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on September 23 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.0% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.0% [–] Green Leaf

The KnessetJeremy Average 6 weeks out from election day shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal.

If we look at the snapshot 6 weeks before the previous election, we will see that 8 of the 13 parties that would pass the threshold were already within a seat of their election results.

The five exceptions are New Hope and Yamina who would gradually drop, losing a good portion of support to Blue & White, and the Joint List who would lose support to Raam.

It is important to note that at this time in the previous election Raam only passed the electoral threshold in one of the four polls conducted after the submission of the lists. Blue & White passed in two of the four.

Over the coming weeks I will monitor the trend of the 2022 election and attempt to predict the direction of momentum in this election based on the 2021 data.

2022 Election PartyPoll Seat EstPoll Avg  
Likud3332.6  
Yesh Atid2423.6  
National Unity1212.2  
Religious Zionist1212  
Shas88.2  
UTJ77  
Yisrael Beitenu65.8  
Labor55.4  
Meretz54.8  
Hadash-Taal44.4  
Raam44  
     
Netanyahu Bloc60   
Lapid w/H-T60   
Lapid w/o H-T56   
     
2021 Election PartyPoll Seat EstPoll AvgGapElex Results
Likud3029.25030
Yesh Atid1716.75017
New Hope1514.25-96
Yamina1111-47
Joint List99-36
Shas87.7519
Yisrael Beitenu7707
UTJ76.7507
Labor 66.2517
Religious Zionist54.516
Meretz54.516
Blue & White0288
Raam0144

KnessetJeremy has returned. The new relaunch for the 2022 campaign will include every polls conducted during the last six weeks of the campaign, the KnessetJeremy average, and commentary.

Panels conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on September 16 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [06] Joint List (Odeh) *During breakup

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Green Leaf

0.0% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

Kantar conducted a poll of 702 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on September 17 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.9% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

1.5% [01] Balad (Abu Schada)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.6% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Midgam conducted a poll of 626 people with a 3.9% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 17 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [01] Balad (Abu Schada)

0.4% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

0.3% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.1% [–] Green Leaf

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 691 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 17 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.0% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.9% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Schada)

1.1% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

0.1% [–] Green Leaf

0.0% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 616 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on September 18 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

22 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Schada)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.3% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

KnessetJeremy Returning Sunday

On Sunday KnessetJeremy will return.

Stay tuned.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was published by Yisrael Hayom on September 12 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

07 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

06 [06] The Joint List (Odeh)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

0.9% [05] Yamina (Shaked)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.8% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Scenario Poll: New Bennett Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

22 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

10 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

07 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] The Joint List (Odeh)

05 [05] Yamina (Bennett)

04 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 12 on May 27 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
17 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [08] Blue & White/Israel Resilience (Gantz)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] Religious Zionist + Otzma + Noam (Smotrich)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)
06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)
06 [06] The Joint List (Odeh)
05 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
04 [06] Meretz (Horovitz)
04 [06] New Hope (Saar)
04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

None

Scenario Poll: New National Camp (Yamina+New Hope+Yisrael Beitenu)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

15 [20] New National Camp Yamina/New Hope/Yisrael Beitenu

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

1st Matchup: 46% Netanyahu, 28% Neither, 21% Bennett, 5% Don’t know

Coalition Parties: 44% Bennett, 32% Neither, 18% Netanyahu, 6% Don’t know

2nd Matchup: 46% Netanyahu, 25% Neither, 24% Lapid, 5% Don’t know

Coalition Parties: 45% Lapid, 27% Neither, 20% Netanyahu, 8% Don’t know

3rd Matchup: 44% Netanyahu, 28% Neither, 21% Gantz, 7% Don’t know

Coalition Parties: 40% Gantz, 36% Neither, 18% Netanyahu, 6% Don’t know