Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Maagar Mochot conducted an internal scenario poll series for religious Zionist Rabbis

Scenario #1: BY & NU run alone.

2-3 seats Bayit Yehudi
1-2 seats National Union-Tekuma

(Neither passes the threshold)

Scenario #2: By & NU run together

4 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma

Scenario #3: BY+NU+Otzma run together

8 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma+Otzma

Scenario #4: NU+Otzma+Yachad

8-9 seats National Union-Tekuma+Oztma+Yachad

Scenario #5: BY+NU+Yachad+Zehut+Otzma

12 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma+Otzma+Yachad+Zehut

Key:

Bayit Yehudi is led by Rabbi Rafi Peretz.
Tekuma is led by Betzalel Smotrich.
Otzma is led by Michael Ben Ari.
Yachad is led by Eli Yishai.
Zehut is led by Moshe Feiglin.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 517 people with a 4.3% margin of error for 103 FM radio that was broadcast on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted on Feb 7 2019.

In a post-Netanyahu world who should lead the Likud?

31% Don’t know, 25% Edelstein, 20% Saar, 16% Y. Katz, 4% Erdan, 4% Regev

Among Likud voters: 30% Saar, 21% Y. Katz, 20% Don’t know, 19% Edelstein, 5% Erdan, 5% Regev

Note: The seat results are identical to the seat distribution Maagar Mochot produced for Yisrael HaYom on the same day. I have updated that poll to reflect the numbers without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.
https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/02/09/yisrael-hayom-poll-likud-29-israel-resilience-17-yesh-atid-11-joint-list-9-utj-7/

Midgam conducted a poll with a 4.4% margin of error for the Labor Party that was leaked on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

1.1% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.0% [06] Livni Party
Under 1% [–] Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Otzma (Ben Ari), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 601 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under electoral threshold:

2.2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.8% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.2% [06] Livni Party
under 1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari), Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll: Labor + Meretz

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
14 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
10 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 18% Dpm’t know

Miskar conducted a poll that was published by Srugim on Feb 9 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [12] The Joint (Arab) List

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others

49 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
38 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
33 [–] seats are thrown away

Scenario Poll: Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma + Otzma + Yachad

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
24 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Otzma + Yachad
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others

53 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
43 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
24 [–] seats are thrown away

Note: I will not include this poll in my average