News Recap
- Political Crisis: The Haredi parties remain outside of the government, with no resolution on their return.
- Gaza Update: Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with no progress on the hostage front. Discussions within the government and security establishment now focus on expanding the war effort into Gaza City and the refugee camps in the middle of the strip.
- Coalition Reshuffle: The second phase of the coalition reshuffle was completed this week. A special Knesset plenum approved two new deputy speakers, and five Knesset committees confirmed new committee chairs, including MK Bismuth replacing MK Edelstein as Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.
- Haredi Draft: MK Bismuth announced that he intends to take time to review the issue before presenting his version of a new Haredi draft bill, delaying any potential committee vote until the end of the summer recess.
How It Played Out in the Polls
- Only three polls were published this week.
- Likud continues to lead, but Bennett 2026 remains a strong second. The Bennett bloc gains momentum in both the Tatika and Lazar polls, while the Netanyahu bloc secures a clear majority only in the Filber poll.
- The Democrats and Shas are now competing for third-largest party, while Yisrael Beiteinu and Yesh Atid are locked in a race for fifth place.
- Blue & White passes the electoral threshold in all three surveys, while Smotrich makes it through in two out of three.
What to Expect Next
- Knesset Silence: While committees continue to meet during the recess, the Knesset will go completely silent between August 13 and September 3, with no committee activity scheduled during that period. Meetings are expected on both August 13 and September 3 themselves.
- Political Crisis: There are no indications that the coalition crisis will be resolved before the Knesset goes silent.
- Gaza Update: With Knesset activity on hold, government attention is expected to shift fully to the question of whether to push deeper into Gaza.
- Coalition Reshuffle: The reshuffle appears largely complete, though a few final committee membership appointments may be made before the silence.
- Polls: Fewer seat projections are expected, with public opinion polling likely to focus on Gaza developments. I don’t plan to post an update next week unless there’s a major political development and will most likely resume coverage at the start of September.
| Poll # | Conducted by | Published by | Sample Size | Date | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatika | Zman Israel | 404 | August 6, 2025 | ±4.8% |
| 2 | Filber | Channel 14 | 441 | August 7, 2025 | Not stated |
| 3 | Lazar/Panels | Maariv | 504 | August 6–7, 2025 | ±4.4% |
Seats
| Party | Zman Yisrael | Channel 14 | Maariv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 26 | 34 | 23 |
| Bennett 2026 | 23 | 14 | 21 |
| Democrats | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Shas | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Yesh Atid | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| United Torah Judaism | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| Otzma | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Ra’am | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Hadash-Ta’al | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Blue & White | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Religious Zionism | – | 5 | 4 |
| Eisenkot | – | – | 11 |
Blocs:
| Poll | Netanyahu Bloc | Bennett Bloc | Arab Bloc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zman Yisrael | 49 | 60 | 11 |
| Channel 14 | 64 | 46 | 10 |
| Maariv | 49 | 61 | 10 |
Additional Questions (Maariv Poll):
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
| Should Israel pursue a deal to release hostages in exchange for ceasefire and withdrawal? | Yes – 57% No – 30% Don’t know – 13% |
| Whom do Israelis support in the Gaza war strategy debate? | Chief of Staff (ceasefire) – 46% Netanyahu (continue war) – 32% Don’t know – 22% |
| Who is to blame for failed hostage deal negotiations? | Hamas – 66% (44% solely, 22% mainly) Israel – 15% Both equally – 13% Don’t know – 6% |
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 