Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Channel 20 on Feb 1 2021.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [35] Likud (Netanyahu)
17 [16] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
14 [03] New Hope (Saar)
12 [03] Yamina (Bennett)
11 [15] The Joint List (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
04 [02] Labor (Michaeli)
04 [04] Meretz (Horovitz)
04 [12] Blue & White/Israel Resilience (Gantz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.0% [00] New Economy (Zalika)
1.1% [00] The Israelis (Huldai)
0.9% [00] Otzma + Noam (Ben Gvir)
0.7% [02] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)
0.5% [01] Bayit Yehudi (Moshe)
Under 0.5%
0% [00] Green Leaf
0% [00] Tnufa (Shelach)
0% [03] Telem (Yaalon)
0% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
0% [00] Israeli Veterans (Yatom)
0% [00] Democratic Party
0% [00] Tzomet (Green)
0% [00] Am Shalem (Amsalam)
If Gabi Ashkenazi Were To Rejoin Kahol/Lavan-Hosen L’yisrael Now, He Would Lift Them Up To 7 Seats, Labor To 5, Meretz To 5. Mainly At The Expense Of “New Hope” And “Yesh Atid”, But Also Slightly At The Expense Of “Yisrael Beitenu” And The joint List; “The Israelis” Too. I Would Tell Him: “General, You Took Your Step Back, Now It Is Time For You To Take Your Two Steps Foreword.”
I Feel Bad For Moshe Ya’alon, But He Did The Right Thing, And By Taking A Step Back, He Could Possibly Re-Emerge Later. His Exit Has Added A Seat To Likud, As Expected.
Thanks a Million Jeremy, The Thursday Midnight Deadline Is Looming, And For Us, It Is Full Court Press Until Then.
Question is what is Zalika, Huldai, Otzma + Noam, Religious Zionists, and Bayit Yehudi going to do. Will they join together with bigger parties (or together) or will they all fail to pass the threshold. It really makes a huge difference because Netanyahu is at around 60 now, so 1-2 seats makes it or breaks it.