Direct Polls conducted a poll of 821 people with a 4.1% of margin of error that was published on March 17 2020. The poll was conducted March 14-16.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
39 [36] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
16 [15] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [06] Labor-Meretz (A.Peretz)
06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [06] Yamina (Bennett)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
1.75% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
0.34% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0.00% [00] All Others
Phase 2 Recommendations:
61 [58] Nominated Netanyahu (Current Government Coalition)
59 [61] Nominated Gantz (Current Opposition)
00 [01] Abstained (Gesher)
I want to see bennet join with gesher and run alone from teh religious zionist group who can then join up with otzma.
but maybe we should wait til after corona…
I suspect that if new elections are held, Yisrael Beitenu would lose a couple of seats. Its voters may not like the Haredim, but they like the Joint List even less, and many of them can’t be happy that Lieberman endorsed Gantz, instead of holding out for a “unity government.”
Additionally, I suspect that more than a few Blue and White supporters voted for that party because Gantz was seen as someone who would have the same policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians as Likud, but without Likud’s ties to the Haredim or Netanyahu’s indictment. Given Gantz’s indications that he may rely on the Joint List to support a minority government, next time around, those Blue & White voters may just hold their noses and vote for the Likud.
Thus, if Netanyahu can in some way push this to a fourth election, I think the right block will finally get a clear majority.
(And this is even without Orly Levy, Tzvi Hauser or Yoaz Hendel joining Likud for the next run, or Otzma running with Yamina-BY-NU.)