Panels conducted a poll of 509 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on January 10 2020.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [02] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
00 [02] National Union/Tekuma (Smotrich)
00 [01] Green Party
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
Scenario Poll #1: HaYamin HeHadasah + Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [07] HaYamin HeHadash + Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
0% [01] Green Party
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
Scenario Poll #2: Bayit Yehudi + National Union/Tekuma + Otzma
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
06 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
0% [01] Green Party
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
Scenario Poll #3: Yamina runs together, Otzma alone.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [07] Yamina/HaYamin HeHadash + National Union + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
2.1% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0% [01] Green Party
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
Scenario Poll #4: HaYamin HeHadash + National Union, Bayit Yehudi + Otzma
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [05] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett + Smotrich)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [02] Bayit Yehudi + Otzma (R.Peretz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.4% [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
0% [01] Green Party
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Not exactly sure but it seems that the right wingers are slowly moving away from Lieberman and lefties are joining him…
maybe the right will have a chance at 61… gotta pray…
None of the scenario polls managed to get a camp with 61 MKs. It means that this election will be as useless as the last one.
The polls are always off by a few. I agree that the left/center (whatever you want to call the Anti-Netanyahu camp) has 0 chance unless they do the impossible and get both Lieberman and the Arab parties to sit together. But if the right gets just a few more seats then they have a chance to get the 61.
OK, I will deal with the findings of my First Informal Survey (The Only One I’ve Got So far,) one Issue at a time, let’s talk about Otzmah. Yes,. Democracy is about Majority Rule, but before that comes Minorities Rights. Right Wing Indifference toward Otzmah in the last election cost them four votes empirically- two who voted for Otzmah and additional two who didn’t vote or cast protest votes. (Three Mathematically, Actually- Mathematicians know what I’m talking about.) Same will happen if any other group is excluded, i.e. Tkuma. Bennett is right, placing Ben Gvir in the top five will drive away voters; But that is only true if Yamin Hadash is on the Same List, which shouldn’t be the case. Ben Gvir should be third on the list after R. Perez and Smotrich. I will address Yamin Hadash Next Time.
P.S. How I feel about Otzmah Ideology is Immaterial. Also, I learned the above info recently which explains my change of approach.
Thanks a Million to Jeremy for providing His Platform.
I’m with you. I think there should be 2 right wing groups; Religious and non-Religious. Some voters are turned off by the religiousness of the religious parties while others are turned off by the religious indifference of other parties. By having Bennet separate from the Zionist parties you can maximize your voter output…
I don’t think Likud is looked at as a right-wing party anymore, more center. This is similar to Blue/White which also is not really left but anti-Netanyahu.
In essence, I believe that right wing ostracism toward one rightist group- even by few- allienates a sizeable segment of the electorate across the board.
Thanks Moe, You Also Made Another Noteworthy Observation a couple of weeks ago, which I will refer to when I address the issue of Yamin Hadash.