Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was published by Yisrael HaYom on November 15 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
05 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
53 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
Additional Questions:
If there was a straight up vote for Prime Minister who would you vote for?
43% Netanyahu, 41% Gantz, 16% Don’t know
What coalition do you prefer?
40% Unity Government, 28% Right Government, 17% Center-Left Government, 15% Don’t know
If there are elections will you vote?
64% For sure, 18% Low chance, 14% High chance, 4% Medium chance
What is your level of trust in following institutions?
Political Arena: 64% Low, 26% Average, 10% High
Press & Media: 53% Low, 27% Average, 20% High
State Prosecution: 44% Low, 28% Average, 28% High
Police: 42% Low, 36% Average, 22% High
Court System: 38% High, 37% Low, 25% Average
Supreme Court: 44% High, 35% Low, 21% Average
Over the last year has your trust in state institutions gone up or down?
54% Down, 34% No change, 10% In some cases went up and in some cases went down, 2% Up
Have the leaks and publications about Netanyahu’s investigations influenced your position on him?
49% No, 25% Influenced for the worse, 16% Influenced for the better, 10% Don’t know
Goodness me those Shas and UTJ voters are fickle,they all can back 2 days later and dragged some new friends to vote for then, is this for REAL!
I remember in the first of the 2 (3? 4? 5? 132?) elections they said the same thing. They said Shas would not pass the threshold…
Whether it’s a closely fought election or landslide there needs to be a winner. There are a number of possibilities, but I tend to favor some sort of runoff system. After the first round, let the two biggest parties form prospective coalitions, put them to a popular vote, the winning coalition gets a majority of seats reflective of their votes in the runoff.
I believe the sample sizes of all of these polls are just to small to capture the extraordinary diverse mosaic of Israeli society. So you see those ‘small’ and ‘large’ shifts when actually nothing has changed.
agreed , you have identified all the issues with these polls so well.
Lieberman is an idiot. Until the voters stop voting for the idiot, there will be 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th elections…
Although i would never vote for him i don’t think he’s acting any more idiotic than other party leaders. Ganz insists on running with Lapid the clown and Yaalon, hurting his chances of actually making things work out with the Orthodox and/or Netanyahu. Netanyahu refuses to accept anything less than Prime Minister, even though he does not have the biggest party. The smaller lefty parties also really don’t care to work things out with Netanyahu. Lieberman is just not much worse in his stubbornness, just weirder and erratic.
The system needs to change to produce a clear-cut winner – at best a 3rd election, even a one time PM only election – will likely produce a shaky coalition that won’t last long. It’s both surprising and unfortunate that the larger parties haven’t worked out a systemic change that would benefit them both.
Having a closely fought election produce a close result seems to be a good thing Dan, not a bad one.
“What coalition do you prefer?
40% Unity Government, 28% Right Government, 17% Center-Left Government, 15% Don’t know”
Yeah, Lieberman is an idiot for trying to arrange what Israelis want…