Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Current update: Monday March 11th 2019.
| Place | Party | Leader | Seats | KnessetJeremy AVG | Change | Week 10 AVG | Current |
| 1st | Blue & White | Gantz | 34 | 33.6 | -2.5 | 36.1 | 11 |
| 2nd | Likud | Netanyahu | 30 | 29 | 0.7 | 28.3 | 29 |
| 3rd | Labor | Gabbai | 9 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 6.9 | 18 |
| 4th | Hadash-Taal | Odeh | 9 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 8 | 6 |
| 5th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 8 | 7 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 6 |
| 6th | United Right List | Peretz | 7 | 6.6 | -0.9 | 7.5 | 5 |
| 7th | HaYamin HeHadash | Bennett | 7 | 6 | -0.9 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 8th | Meretz | Zandberg | 6 | 5.3 | -0.2 | 5.5 | 5 |
| 9th | Shas | Deri | 5 | 5 | -0.1 | 5.1 | 7 |
| 10th | Kulanu | Kahlon | 5 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 4 | 10 |
| 11th | Raam-Balad | Abbas | 0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 7 |
| 12th | Other | 31 Others | 0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1 | 5 |
| Right-Religious Bloc | 62 | 61 | 0.4 | 60.6 | 66 | ||
| Center-Left-Arab Bloc | 58 | 59 | -0.4 | 59.4 | 54 |
Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.
Note #2: This average is based on the last 7 polls that were released from March 5 to March 10 (Panels, Smith, Teleseker, Maagar Mochot, Dialog & 2 from Midgam).
Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/
Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between Labor & Meretz, HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, Likud & United Right List, Shas & UTJ. The deadline for submitting voter exchange agreements is March 29.
Note #5: Raam Balad passed the electoral threshold in 4 of the 7 polls this week, Yisrael Beitenu & Zehut both passed in 3 polls this week. Gesher only passed in one poll this week.
Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu (including Zehut when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 63 and a low of 59. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 61 and a low of 57.
Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 4 parties have withdrawn to date.
Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
I will preface this by saying that I am not knowledgeable on Israeli elections. So, I have two questions:
1. Does the party that wins the most votes gets the first shot to form the government?
2. Is Kulanu open to joining a center-left coalition?
I refer you to the link in note #3. The party with the most votes does not get an automatic first shot at forming the government.
As for Kulanu, Kahlon has said his preference is to sit with Netanyahu.
Thanks. That is, certainly, helpful. I understand the process of Israeli election much better now.
I do have another question, however. The link states that Bibi’s victory in “phase 1” is expected. Am I misreading the polls to think that it is not a foregone conclusion?
Thanks, in advance, for patience in answering my questions.
Eugene, the article in the link was written in January, before Gantz merged with Lapid to make Blue and White – at the time, Likud was ahead of any other party.
I assume the two Arab parties will sign vote exchange agreements with each other and then Blue and White and Kulanu are the next closest fit. Unless B&W throws in with Gesher and Kulanu with Zehut, but I suspect those two parties will get left out in the cold or will have to sign with each other.
Raam-Balad was disqualified for the election. I wonder who Hadash-Taal will pair with seeing as Meretz and Labor have already signed an agreement.
The SCJ will allow Raam-Balad to run.