Teleseker conducted a poll of 543 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Reshet Bet/Kan on March 6 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
Under 1%
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others
61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Who is more suited for the position of Prime Minister?
45% Netanyahu, 39% Gantz, 16% Don’t know
Following AG decision are you more likely or less likely to vote Likud?
58% No change, 30% Less likely, 12% More likely
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Good riddance Mr Lieberman. How ironic!! If I remember correctly Lieberman was pivotal in creating the present 3.25% threshold all in the name of democracy.
indeed
Good policy enacted for bad reasons. At least his karma has caught up to him.
Jeremy, based on word of mouth and the feeling on the ground, do you get the sense that Zehut is gaining some traction or do you think it’s an aberration?
Jeremy, do the pollsters make an adjustment for different growth rates for different segments of the Israeli population? For example, Haredi population has grown at almost 5% a year since last elections, while secular left has grown as much slower rate. Do the pollsters make adjustments for this? Thank you Stan MaydanNew York
I have been told that an increasing number of Charedim do not take part in elections for ideological reasons. Is there any truth in that assertion?. Has there been any credible research on this issue.
that is not true, you need to relate that to groups who do not vote for ideological reasons, eg Satmar
Apologies for the long post, but trying to get my head around where all this is going and curious to get Jeremy’s (or others’) reaction to the following:
(1) There seems to be a fair amount of consistency in the polling, so unless there’s a major shift or big polling error (both unlikely), the final result likely will be both the “right-religious” and “left-center-Arab” blocs winding up with between 58 and 62 seats, with maybe a slight edge for the religious-right block. As discussed further below, the specifics of where the blocs wind up in this narrow range may not impact much the dynamics of forming a coalition, but it does matter both in terms of whether the center-left gets enough seats (60) to form a theoretical “blocking majority” and perhaps whether Netanyahu or Gantz gets the first crack at putting together a coalition.
(2) Where the blocs wind up in this narrow 58-62 seat range may depend less on tiny shifts of a seat or two between the parties entering the Knesset (much of which is within rather than between blocs) and much more on which parties clear the threshold, and which don’t – resulting in “wasted” votes on either the right or the left. With the small parties, there’s inherently a lot of margin for polling error. And right now it looks like we’ve got (A) two parties right on the bubble – Yisrael Beytenu (right) and Balad-Ra’Am (left), (B) several parties likely to clear the threshold – but still potentially failing to do so if there’s a surprise—Meretz (left), Shas (right), Kulanu (right), and (C) two parties not likely to clear the threshold, but close enough that there’s a chance that they squeak in with a late surge – Gesher (left), and Zehut (right). I suspect that Shas and Meretz have been around long enough that their dedicated base will get them over the top. I’m less confident about the others. Accordingly, I think the key to whether the “right-religious” or “left-center” comes out ahead will be what happens with these parties that are right around the cusp.
(3) Fundamentally, even though the blocks will be roughly equal size, and even though the mathematics of building a coalition will be tough for both sides, it is definitely harder for Gantz than Netanyahu for the simple reason that a chunk of the “center-left” – Hadash-Ta’al and Balad-Ra’am – are, for all intents and purposes, off limits for a governing coalition, and this is not the case for anyone on the “right-religious” side, with the possible exception of one or two Oztma MKs. So, whereas Netanyahu starts out with a “natural” coalition of around 60 MKs, plus or minus one or two, Gantz’s “natural” coalition (BW, Labor, Meretz) is unlikely to start with more than 50 MKs.
(4) For Gantz to build a coalition, he has two choices – neither of which looks promising. He can try (A) to pull Likud into a “national unity” government, or (B) he can try to pick off some combination of Shas, UTJ, Kulanu, YB, or HaYamin HeHadash. As for (A) it’s a little hard to imagine why Likud would ever agree to a “national unity” government headed by Gantz, knowing how difficult it would be for Gantz to form – and maintain – a coalition without them. It would seem that strategically it would make more sense for them to remain in opposition and prepare for the next election. (Entering into a Gantz-led coalition would almost certainly cause them to shed votes to Bennett and others on the right in the next election – which might happen very soon.) As for (B), although it’s possible to see Shas/UTJ entering a Gantz-led government, that seems very unlikely given their hostility to Lapid and BW’s platform position on state-religion issues. Similarly, although one could imagine Gantz pulling in Kulanu, that’s not enough. He’d probably need to bring in Bennett, and that’s an even stranger bedfellow than the haredi parties. So, the logistics look very daunting for Gantz – even if BW is the largest party, and even if the “left-center-Arab” bloc winds up with even as many as 62 seats.
(5) Netanyahu’s task is easier, although by no means easy. He’s could have as many as three choices. (A) The first is a narrow “right-religious” government similar to what he’s had the last few years. But there are several problems with this. Most obviously, it’s not clear the “right-religious” block will win 61 seats. As a practical matter, it may not be feasible for Netanyahu to bring Otzma into the government, so he might actually need 62 or 63 seats. Even if they win that many – which might be a stretch – it would be a very narrow, shaky government that could be blackmailed by a single small party, or perhaps even a single MK. So, this option is likely either not attractive, or not feasible at all depending on the final election outcome. (B) A second option might be a “national unity” gov’t with BW. But absent some major concessions from Netanyahu, it’s hard to see why BW would agree to this – especially, as if seems likely, BW is the largest party by several seats. I think for BW to agree to this, they’d need to secure, at a minimum, a PM rotation agreement (similar to what Shamir and Peres agreed to in their National Unity government). The agreement might also include a provision under which Netanyahu agrees to step down if actually indicted. From Netanyahu’s perspective, he might agree to this if it lets him stay in the PM’s office another year or two until his hearing (allowing him to become Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister). If he can get clear of his legal troubles he might count on being able to bring about new elections before the PM rotation ever takes place, and if he can’t . . . well, then he might not care if Gantz succeeds him rather than Sa’ar or Edelstein. Still, I think this is a little bit of a stretch. (C) Netanyahu’s third option would be to bolster his “core” right-religious block by adding a party (or portion thereof) from the “left-center.” Presumably, the Arab parties and Meretz are out. It would be a stretch to imagine Labor joining a Netanyahu-led coalition given the views of most of the rank-and-file and leadership . . . except Gabbay is a bit of a wild card. He was previously a member of Kulanu and a minister in Netanyahu’s government. He may not care much, institutionally, about the Labor Party – particularly since his tenure as its leader may be shaky after a poor result. One could imagine him following Ehud Barak’s “Independence Party” model, splitting Labor, and taking a few MK’s with him into a Netanyahu-led government. Finally, I think it’s important to remember BW is not a “party” as much as three lists merged for the elections. I think Netanyahu might try to “divide and conquer” doing a deal with a segment of BW. Most obviously, Ya’alon and Telem are, philosophically, pretty closely aligned with Netanyahu and a right-led government. Despite any remaining bad blood from his last tenure as Netanyahu’s Defense Minister, one could imagine Netanyahu making a deal to bring Ya’alon and his 5 or so MKs into the government leaving the rest of BW on the outside. Given that Gantz may be a bit more right-leaning than Lapid, and that he’d presumably sit easier with a government that includes UTJ/Shas than Lapid, Netanyahu might try to bring Gantz and his 12 MKs in with a promise of, e.g., the defense or foreign ministry (and, perhaps, a promise to step down if indicted.)
(6) Bottom line – I think the most likely outcome is a Netanyahu-led “right-religious” government where he brings in Ya’alon-Telem. Second most likely is he brings in Gantz or Gabbay instead or in addition. (Of course, it’s also possible there’s a stalemate and new elections.)
Vary good analysis except your bottom line. The most likely outcome is that who ever forms the next government will only survive a very short period. The bottom line is that we will have a new election within a year.
Very much agree on everything.