Smith conducted a poll of 534 people with a 4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 20 on March 5 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
29 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
3% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under 1%
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others
60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Did the AG decision influence your vote?
72% No, 15% Yes, 13% No opinion
Note: 5% of 2015 Likud voters left to other parties. 5% of non-Likud voters have moved to Likud.
Do you agree with Netanyahu’s argument that the media has been drafted to topple the Likud government?
45% Yes, 42% No, 13% No opinion
the polls today suggest the Mandilbilt effect has peaked and we should see a claw back to the religious-right block as we get nearer to polling day
Hey Jeremy, what do you think are the chances of a “hung parliament”, where neither BW or Likud could make a coalition? It looks like a lot of polls are around 60-60 with a chance of center-left/Arab even being over 60. That said, there doesn’t seem to be a clear chance for BW to make a coalition, especially given Lapid’s negative relation with the Ultra Orthodox.
Do you think we *might* head for a second round of elections?
Considering that our Pals have already rejected the Trump plan, apriori, I think Likud and BW could actually make a unity government, regardless of bad blood before the elections. In fact, it might be a pretty good governement if the right people are given the right ministries and the work outline is clear.