Panels conducted a poll of 987 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Walla on March 5 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
36 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2.8% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2.7% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.6% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.6% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
Under 1%
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others
61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Which Blue & White Party Leader is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?
46% Don’t know, 30% Gantz, 10% Lapid, 7% Yaalon, 7% Ashkenazi
Blue & White voters: 64% Gantz, 20% Lapid, 7% Don’t know, 6% Yaalon, 3% Ashkenazi
Likud voters: 60% Don’t know, 19% Gantz, 9% Yaalon, 8% Ashkenazi, 4% Lapid
Do you support the prohibition of airing the Prime Minister’s speeches live?
47% Yes, 30% No, 23% No opinion
Likud voters: 44% No, 40% Yes, 16% No opinion
I believe recent polls are showing unsustainable levels of support for Blue & White. They include Voters for Likud, Kulano, Labor and Arab Parties, where these votes will go back home. They are actually beginning to do so.
Has anyone noticed that in several polls Zehut has been polling in the 2.5-3% range? Yisrael Beitenu has also been in the 2.5%-3.0% range. If votes equaling one United Right seat moved to Feiglin, and votes equaling one Likud seat went to YB, the right would have a net gain of six. (4 for Zehut, 4 for YB, but 1 less for United Right and 1 less for Likud.) This would bring the right bloc up to 67 — enough not only to win, but to withstand the potential departure of Kulanu.
On the other side of the spectrum, I don’t see how Blue & White gets a true majority — even with Kulanu.
The same could be achieved with YB and Feiglin voters moving to Likud or UR.
Similarly, by uniting the parties (too late for that..)
The problem is that it is difficult to coordinate on which to do.
But moving votes to the smaller parties is not usually the best option: it is riskier (votes moved might not be enough) and the d’Hondt system favours larger parties (so one vote for likud counts more, on expectation, than a vote for YB)