Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 510 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Yisrael HaYom & I24 News that was published on Feb 1 2019. The poll was conducted Jan 30-31.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman) – under electoral threshold
03 [05] Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma (Smotrich) – under electoral threshold
03 [01] Taal (Tibi) – under electoral threshold
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
01 [06] Livni Party – under electoral threshold
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Without parties that didn’t pass the threshold:
31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
10 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
05 [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Zehut
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
Scenario Poll: Gantz + Yaalon + Lapid + Ashekenazi
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
03 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
03 [07] Shas (Deri)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman) – under electoral threshold
03 [05] Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma (Smotrich) – under electoral threshold
03 [01] Taal (Tibi) – under electoral threshold
03 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
03 [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
02 [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
01 [06] Livni Party – under electoral threshold
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Without parties that didn’t pass the threshold:
41 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
39 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
Additional Questions:
Where do you place Gantz on the political map?
39% Center, 25% Don’t know, 22% Left, 14% Right
Without the Don’t know: 52% Center, 29% Left, 19% Right
Note: Results are after removing 25% that answered – Don’t know
Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?
38% Netanyahu, 22% Others, 22% Gantz, 9% Lapid, 3% Bennett, 3% Gabbai, 3% Liberman,
What issues will determine this election?
32% Security situation, 23% Netanyahu investigations, 21% Price of living, 10% Other answers, 7% Religion and State issues, Social gaps and social issues
Kind of a weird poll – first time I’ve seen Zehut cross the threshold. I wonder if their primary gave them a bit of attention? I very much appreciate they showing the support of those under the threshold rather than lumping them all together. Be interesting to see which of the small parties join up to better secure their chances. I don’t know who Zehut could join with, though – Green Leaf?
Just one critique: You always list Otzma Yehudit as being Baruch Marzel’s party, when in fact the party is led by Michael Ben-Ari, though Marzel is a top member.