Panels conducted a poll of 1012 people with a 3.2% margin of error for Maariv that was published on Feb 1 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.0% [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
1.8% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin) – under electoral threshold
1.7% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold
0.7% [–-] Green Leaf – under electoral threshold
0.6% [06] Livni Party – under electoral threshold
0.3% [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) – under electoral threshold
0.1% [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv) – under electoral threshold
0.1% [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) – under electoral threshold
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Note: Israel Resilience is pulling 8 seats from Zionist Union voters, 4 from Yesh Atid, 2 from Likud and 1 from Kulanu.
Scenario Poll #1: Gantz + Yaalon + Ashkenazi
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
25 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Ashkenazi
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.9% [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
1.7% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin) – under electoral threshold
1.7% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold
1.1% [–-] Green Leaf – under electoral threshold
60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Scenario Poll #2: Gantz + Yaalon + Lapid
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
32 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.9% [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
1.7% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin) – under electoral threshold
1.7% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold
1.1% [–-] Green Leaf – under electoral threshold
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B
Additional Questions:
Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?
35% Netanyahu, 29% Gantz, 10% Don’t know, 9% Lapid, 8% None of above, 4% Saar, 3% Bennett, 2% Gabbai
Head-to-Head
44% Netanyahu, 41% Gantz, 15% Don’t know
50% Netanyahu, 26% Lapid, 24% Don’t know
Who is most suited to serve as Defense Minister?
26% Don’t know, 19% Gantz, 15% Ashekenazi, 14% Netanyahu, 13% Bennett, 13% Yaalon
all these recent polls are reactionary and unlikely to reflect what actually happens, they are almost certainly false for the smaller parties
isn’t there scope for some consolidation on the right among the small one man band parties – Yishai, Feiglin and Marzel together could get up to ~6 seats, but separately none cross the threshold