Exit polls 2019:
| Place | Party | Leader | Channel 11 | Channel 12 | Channel 13 | Channel 20 | i24 news | Ynet | Exit Poll AVG | Exit Poll Seats |
| 1st | Blue & White | Gantz | 37 | 37 | 36 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 34.9 | 36 |
| 2nd | Likud | Netanyahu | 36 | 33 | 36 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 31 | 33 |
| 3rd | Labor | Gabbai | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7.9 | 9 |
| 4th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6.7 | 7 |
| 5th | Shas | Deri | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | 7 |
| 6th | Hadash-Taal | Odeh | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6.3 | 7 |
| 7th | United Right List | Peretz | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5.2 | 6 |
| 8th | Kulanu | Kahlon | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 9th | Meretz | Zandberg | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4.8 | 5 |
| 10th | HaYamin HeHadash | Bennett | 0 (2.51%) | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3.8 | 4 |
| 11th | Raam-Balad | Abbas | 0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| 12th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2.8 | 0 |
| 13th | Zehut | Feiglin | 0 (2.42%) | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2.3 | 0 |
| 14th | Gesher | Levy | 0 (1.73%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Right-Religious Bloc | 64 | 60 | 66 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63.2 | 63 | ||
| Center-Left-Arab Bloc | 56 | 60 | 54 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 56.8 | 57 |
Notes (I’lll update as more methodology is released): Channel 11 was conducted by TNS/Teleseker in 60 polling stations. Channel 12 was conducted by Midgam. Channel 13 was conducted by Dialog. Channel 20 was conducted by Maagar Mochot. I24news was conducted by Sarid with 3,756 people with a 1.8% +/- margin of error. Ynet was conducted by Pardes with over 10,000 people.
Here is the average of the 5 exit polls from 2015:
https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/average-of-5-exit-polls-likud-26-2-zionist-union-25-6-joint-arab-list-13-yesh-atid-11-8-kulanu-9-6-bayit-yehudi-8-4-shas-7-2/
Takeaway: The average was more accurate than any individual exit poll.
Here is the 2015 exit poll average compared to the 2015 election results.
Takeaway: The average was accurate for most of the parties with a +/-1 seat margin of error.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
You’re up late! Thanks for the post, it helps make more sense of the chaos.
Whatever the final result, I wonder if this election might provide the momentum for a unity government to fix the system once and for all. Gantz seems likely to get the most votes but it will be almost impossible for him the form a gov’t. Even if he does, it will be incredibly shaky and probably involve major concessions to the smaller parties. Bibi too will have difficulty cobbling together a government and will also have to provide major and likely unpopular concessions. Though I doubt there’s much support for it, I think be an 2 round presidential system coupled with term limited and a higher threshold in the Knesset would do wonders for the country.
and recent updates suggest Gantz may not get the most votes, but we should see what happens when the toll is in
Given the makeup of the Israeli public, the current system is the best way to make sure everyone is represented. I would get rid of such anti-democratic features as the threshold and allow either more vote-sharing or allow people themselves to pick a second. Going back to direct election of the PM might also be a good idea.
The point of a democratic republic is for the people to elect their representatives while shielding the minority from tyranny of the majority. All of the “democratic reforms”, and the judicial oligarchy, do the exact opposite of that.
I agree with mzk1 that the current system is good at representing everyone, but I wouldn’t say the 3.25% threshold is anti-democratic. A 2-5% threshold is pretty normal by international standards and given Israel’s demographics seems pretty reasonable.
My preference is for what’s called an effective threshold, where each region is given a fixed number of seats (based on the population) to be awarded proportionally, and the threshold arises naturally from the number of seats available.
So for example, Haifa and the surrounding district might have 13-14 MKs elected specifically to represent Haifa. It’s how most democracies work. I don’t know why it isn’t considered more for Israel. You would need about 5% of the vote in Haifa to take a seat there.
With a smaller set of candidates you could move to open lists too, which helps build bigger tent parties even without a threshold (effective or otherwise).
There’s some academic research to backup this approach too (see Carey-Hix 2009 for example).
Ryan: I appreciate your feedback.
The problem with a regional approach is what in the US is called gerrymandering. That is, districts drawn so as to maximize the vote totals of the parties in power, or more likely, the larger parties versus the smaller ones. I certainly would not want the secular Rabbanut, that is, the Supreme Court, making those decisions either. This would also make the census a political football, as it now is in the U.S.
Since I am not familiar with most other parliamentary systems, I would be interested in an example of another country with a analogous demographic split and history (with the parties and groups much older that the state itself) to Israel where such a system works. It doesn’t seem to me that throwing away peoples’ votes is democratic.
I am floored by the results (these are a little more recent than what is above), which don’t seem to have been predicted by the polls. Shas has eight? I realize that the army results may change things, but right now it appears that 13% of the Israeli public voted for Chareidi parties, a portion of whose public will not vote on principle. This is a pretty amazing comeback for Shas.
BTW, are we sure Bibi is in? Does the animus between UTJ and Lapid go that far?
I do feel bad about Feiglin and Bennet. A libertarian would be an interesting add to Israeli politics, although people don’t realize that MJ is much stronger than the stuff in the 60’s and rather dangerous.
Marijuana’s still no more dangerous than alcohol or tobacco. We just legalized it here in Canada and the sky didn’t fall. It did make the government coffers a bit more full though.
Modern MJ is the US is many times more potent than that of the 60’s; basically it is a different drug. It appears to increase chances of psychosis. Like tobacco, it might be quite a while longer before the results are in.
That said, I wouldn’t want another drug around that was anywhere near as dangerous as alcohol and tobacco. If tobacco were discovered today, it would be banned. Alcohol is different from other drugs, being a nutritive substance and having a long history is Western (and other) religions and culture. (Yes, I am aware that some cultures use other drugs in a similar manner.) To ban alcohol, you would have to look in pantries to see if the fruits fermented!
Jeremy, I am very sorry your party didn’t do better.
Wow! Looks like the New Right will indeed be saved by the skin of their teeth! (AKA the IDF vote!)
Four more seats to the Right Bloc, perhaps four fewer seats for the Arabs, too? What a treat! Stability for the Right Bloc increases, making the Leftist loss all the more complete.
Now, on the morning after, Bennett and Shaked should certainly take a good look in the mirror, and see how their silly cult-of-personality-based campaign almost brought them to ruin, rap videos and faux “Fascism Perfume” commercials included! There’s more to being part of the Right than being the celebrities Naftali and Ayalet!