Dialog conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 10 and was released on Feb 18 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Thank you again for this wonderful service.
I still don’t quite understand. Does Rivlin’s decision require anyone to do anything before the election?
No. Phase 2 begins after Phase 1 is completed.
Now THAT’s quick. Thank you.
I just posted it, so you know I’m online
Jeremy, Can the President give the nod to a non-Knesset member? Thinking Saar if an anti-Bibi sentiment emerges on the right…
This is the third consecutive poll that shows Labor + Yesh Atid + Arab + Koolanu + Meretz totaling 61 or 62 seats.
I have not a clue why you think Koolanu would side with labour . Kahlon is ex Likud not anti Likud, he has spoken very highly of his respect for religious traditions and Rabbi (not surprising him being a traditional Mizrahi). He does not fit in with your grouping. In fact if he had a beard he would be a perfect fit for Shas.
You might as well add UTJ and Shas to your calculations and get to any fanciful figure you want.
Kahlon is running a social/economic campaign whose positioning and messaging is much more left wing than right. He is more likely to achieve his economic policy goals as the finance minister for a Labor led coalition. On foreign policy he stated when he began his campaign that he is in favor of West Bank withdrawals: http://www.timesofisrael.com/rising-star-kahlon-says-he-would-give-land-for-peace/. I am not certain what exactly Kahlon has said during the past 2 months of campaigning that makes you so assured he will support Likud.
Most of his supporters prefer Netanyahu, and that could play a big role.
That’s a fanciful interpretation of who Kahlon is, you could argue the same for UTJ and Shas on economic issues. But the bigger picture says that all 3 will go with the right. Rabbi Lapid is not Kahlon’s Rabbi.