TRI conducted a poll 501 people with an error rate of 4.5% that was taken out for Bizportal and was released on Feb 17 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
14 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [10] Shas
04 [06] Meretz
68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Question for you – is the (Arab) part of the Joint (Arab) List a label they apply to themselves? Because I thought Dov Khenin was on that list. If they self identify as an Arab list fair enough, but if not that seems a bit unfair to apply that label arbitrarily, no matter how common it is to do so in the media.
The official election website has the list named joint list, with all member parties listed in parentheses.
Since all but one person in the top 14 are Arabs, its not quite arbitrary to identify the list as Arab, otherwise no one will know what it is.
I think people will know what it is – plenty of coverage on their joint list. Does Yisrael Beitenu need (Jewish) after its?
Coc: I disagree. Don’t assume the sources that people use. I, for one, would be confused.
PS – I see the “Zionist Union” gets to change its name depending where it runs.
Perhaps something like The Joint List (Balad, Hadash, Ta’al, United Arab List).
Polls show a one seat gain by the United Arab parties. Since most Arabs and far left Jews realize a vote for the parties is wasted since they will join either coalition, this number should diminish.
I assume you mean “won’t”? And they still get to propose legislation, and from what I’ve seen they are taken seriously.
I think Joe has a point mzk1, though I’m not sure this would come to pass until after the election. The Arab parties will need to show voters they can affect the “bloc math” or risk losing voters to parties like Meretz. There was a similar situation in Canada with the Bloc Quebecois. They enjoyed considerable success until a failed attempt at supporting a specific coalition showed that they were incapable of influencing the composition of government, and they lost half their voters in the next election.
The Rambam would tell us that names have no essential meanings but are just conveniences we ascribe to things and entities. The Arab list identifies and represents the bulk of Israeli Arabs. However it should be noted that two of the three parties are avowedly secular and in a different polity would be part of the broad spectrum of the liberal left.
Communists are not “liberal left”.
The two polls released today for the first time both show Labor + Yesh Atid + Arab + Koolanu + Meretz totaling 61+ seats. I believe if Labor beats Likud head-to-head by even one seat, and if the 5 parties listed above total 61 or better, then Herzog has an excellent chance of getting the first nod from Rivlin (as I think Kahlon could easily recommend Herzog). The question then becomes, can Labor form a coalition without the 12 Arab seats.
If he finds a way of including the UTJ and Shass he could. If this was to be the outcome at the elections. The only way for Likud to ensure a right wing government would be for Netanyahu to stand down and be replaced. In this scenario even Yesh Atid could support such a government.
Such a scenario is impossible, because a joint Hareidi and Yesh Atid ticket would be impossible, without one of the two giving up all their principles. This is not going to happen, since the Haredi consider the most anti-religious politician in the country, which is a fair assessment. Without the Arabs the left can not form a majority and Netanyahu will get the nod. The only group certain to join either majority is Koolanu, so they should give Netanyahu his majority. Since Koolanu is not anti-religious, the three Hareidi parties, plus modern orthodox will be be happy to join with Koolanu, Likud and a greatly diminished Yisroel Beitanu party
What happens if the Arab parties abstain on Phase 3? The left would need 55 of the remaining 108 votes then, correct? In this poll, Zionist Union + Meretz + Yesh Atid + Yisrael Beitenu + Koolanu would be 54 seats, just 1 short of that.
Not a very likely configuration, mind you. At the least Meretz would have to support the coalition from the outside. I’m just asking about what’s possible.
I would expect post-election for YB and Koolanu to flirt with Zionist Union at least to strengthen their bargaining position with Likud.
Jeremy, I’m sure this has been answered somewhere but I can’t find it online. When a party fails to meet the threshold what happens to those votes? Are they disqualified and the remaining parties divy up seats based on their proportion of the remaining votes? How does it work? Thanks.
Yes they are disqualified. Last time 7% of the votes were disqualified in this fashion. It is a long complicated process but simply – It is the larger parties that benefit the most from this occurrence.
Jeremy – Do you think Marzel’s reinstatement helps Yachad, or hurts them?
Considering Marzel said he would vote for a different party if he was not reinstated – I think this helps them.
Hrm. What about in the post election situation? Would someone like Netanyahu be willing to include someone like Marzel in a coalition do you think?
This clearly helps Yachad, as a joint traditional/religious/right wing Sephardic group, with a far right Modern Orthodox will likely get around 5, possibly even 6 seats. Without the far right, Yachad may squeeze by with 4, but probably would not make it all. The joint list will also take some votes from Likud, Shas and Bayit Yehudi
I would think so too, but the polls aren’t showing it. I am still concerned about the “undecided” effect. I wish the pollsters would put those numbers in the results.
The last 3 polls SEEM to show a shift in the battle for largest party from Likud up by a seat or two to Zionist Union up by a seat, and a similar shift of a seat or two in the bloc math. Thoughts on whether this is just polling “noise” or real? If the latter, thoughts on why there’s a shift?
Wow! really got what i was looking from this post . Thanks