Tag Archive: Israel Elections


Panels conducted a poll on July 17 2013 that was broadcast by Channel 99 on July 18 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
15 [19] Yesh Atid
15 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [06] Mertez
09 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [06] Movement
02 [02] Kadima
02 [00] Strong Israel

62 [61] Right-Religious
58 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The Right gains 4 seats since last months poll to gain a majority while Yesh Atid’s tailspin continues placing Lapid in a tie for third largest party with his “brother” Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi.

Report: Probable look at Netanyahu government, his 21 ministers and 8 deputy ministers.

 

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) Prime Minister , Minister of Foreign Affairs

 

Moshe Ya`alon (Likud) Minister of Defense

Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) Minister of Finance

Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Economy, Industry, Trade, and Labor, Minister of Religious Services, Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Jerusalem

 

Tzipi Livni (Livni Party) Minister of Justice

Gideon Sa`ar (Likud) Minister of Internal Affairs

Shai Piron (Yesh Atid) Minister of Education

 

Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Internal Security

Uri Ariel (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Housing and Construction

Yael German  (Yesh Atid) Minister of Health

 

Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Tourism

Yisrael Katz (Likud) Minister of Transportation, National Infrastructure, and Road Safety

Gilad Erdan (Likud) Minister of Communications and Minister of Home Front Defence

Yaakov Perry (Yesh Atid) Minister of Science and Technology

Limor Livnat (Likud) Minister of Culture and Sport

 

Yair Shamir (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid) Minister of Welfare and Social Services

Uri Orbach (Bayit Yehudi) Minister for Senior Citizens

Amir Peretz (Livni Party) Minister of Environmental Protection

Sofa Landver (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Immigrant Absorption

 

** Silvan Shalom (Likud) Minister of Energy and Water, Minister of the Development of the Negev and Galil, (possibly Minister of Regional Cooperation)

** Yuval Steinitz (Likud) Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy and Minister of Strategic Affairs

 

** = Pending

 

Reported Defense Ministers:

Deputy Defense Danon (Likud)

Deputy Foreign Elkin (Likud)

Deputy Education Vortzman (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Religious Ben Dahan (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Welfare Minister Levy (Yesh Atid)

Deputy Minister Akunis (Likud)

+ 2 more

 

* I will update this page as thing change.

 

I’m looking forward to Monday, that is most likely the day we will swear in a new government. Coalition deals should be on Knesset table Sunday. There is a 24-hour period in between.

Here are the highs and lows of Israel’s top 20 populated cities for the Knesset’s 12 parties.

Likud Beitenu: Avg 23%.

Highs: 42% Ashkelon, 38% Beer Sheva, 36% Ashdod.

Lows: 4% Bnei Brak, 18% Tel Aviv, 19% Raanana.

Yesh Atid: Avg 14%.

Highs: 26% Hertzlia, 23% Rishon Letzion and Ramat Gan.

Lows: 1% Bnei Brak, 4% Bet Shemesh, 7% Jerusalem.

Labor: Avg 11%.

Highs: 19% Kfar Saba, 17% Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan.

Lows: 1% Bnei Brak, 3% Bet Shemesh, 6% Ashdod.

Bayit Yehudi: Avg 9%.

Highs: 14% Bet Shemesh and Raanana, 13% Petah Tikva.

Lows: 4%, Tel Aviv and Bnei Brak, 6% Haifa, Holon and Hertzlia.

Shas: Avg 8%.

Highs: 25% Bnei Brak, 18% Bet Shemesh, 17% Ashdod.

Lows: 2% Modiin, 3% Haifa and Raanana.

UTJ: Avg 5%.

Highs: 60% Bnei Brak, 28% Bet Shemesh, 22% Jerusalem.

Lows: <1% Holon, Kfar Saba and Modiin.

Movement: Avg 4%.

Highs: 8% Hertzlia, 7% Tel Aviv, Haifa, Rishon Letzion and 4 others.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak, 1% Bet Shemesh, 2% Jerusalem.

Meretz: Avg 4%.

Highs: 14% Tel Aviv, 8% Hertzlia, 7% Ramat Gan, Kfar Saba and Raanana.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak, 1% Ashdod, Ashkelon and Bet Shemesh.

Ra’am-Ta’al: Avg 3%.

Highs: 1% Tel Aviv.

Lows: <1% 19 cities.

Hadash: Avg 2%.

Highs: 5% Haifa, 2% Tel Aviv.

Lows: <1% 18 cities.

Balad: Avg 2%.

Highs: 2% Haifa.

Lows: <1% 19 cities.

Kadima: Avg 2%.

Highs: 3% Rishon Letzion, Holon, Ramat Gan and Hertzlia.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak and Bet Shemesh, 1% Jerusalem and Ashdod.

Top 20 Cities Breakdown

Party/City National Avg Tel Aviv Jerusalem Haifa Rishon Petah Tikva Ashdod
Overall Votes 3,792,742 244,901 241,139 139,363 125,345 111,194 103,274
Likud Beitenu 23% 18% 21% 26% 31% 29% 36%
Yesh Atid 14.33% 21% 7% 18% 23% 18% 10%
Labor 11.39% 17% 7% 15% 14% 11% 6%
Bayit Yehudi 9.12% 4% 12% 6% 7% 13% 7%
Shas 8.75% 6% 16% 3% 5% 7% 17%
UTJ 5.16% 1% 22% 3% 1% 4% 10%
Movement 4.99% 7% 2% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Meretz 4.55% 14% 4% 5% 2% 2% 1%
Ra’am-Ta’al 3.65% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash 2.99% 2% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
Balad 2.56% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 2.08% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Party/City Holon Netanya Beer Sheva Ramat Gan Bnei Brak Bat Yam Rechovot
Overall Votes 93,248 92,694 85,611 80,182 75,147 63,960 62,147
Likud Beitenu 31% 34% 38% 23% 4% 37% 27%
Yesh Atid 20% 16% 11% 23% 1% 15% 17%
Labor 13% 9% 8% 17% 1% 10% 13%
Bayit Yehudi 6% 11% 12% 7% 4% 7% 11%
Shas 11% 11% 13% 4% 25% 12% 8%
UTJ <1% 2% 1% 1% 60% 1% 4%
Movement 6% 4% 5% 7% >1% 6% 6%
Meretz 3% 2% 2% 7% >1% 2% 4%
Ra’am-Ta’al <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Balad <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 3% 2% 2% 3% <1% 2% 2%
Party/City Ashkelon Kfar Saba Hertzlia Raanana Modiin Hadera Bet Shemesh
Overall Votes 54,431 51,659 50,958 41,153 39,954 38,578 29,593
Likud Beitenu 42% 23% 22% 19% 23% 34% 23%
Yesh Atid 10% 22% 26% 24% 27% 16% 4%
Labor 7% 19% 16% 16% 15% 12% 3%
Bayit Yehudi 9% 7% 6% 14% 12% 8% 14%
Shas 14% 4% 4% 3% 2% 9% 18%
UTJ 1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 2% 28%
Movement 4% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 1%
Meretz 1% 7% 8% 7% 6% 2% 1%
Ra’am-Ta’al <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Balad <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% <1%

Official election results were announced a week after the elections.

3,834,210 of the 5,656,705 eligable voters (67.78%) voted in the election.
40,914 of the votes were disqualified for various reasons leaving 3,793,296 “kosher” votes.

12 parties entered Knesset after passing the 2% threshold.

Party                    Letters Seats   % of vote   Total Votes

Likud Beitenu מחל 31 23.33%
885,054
Yesh Atid פה 19 14.33%
543,458
Labor אמת 15 11.39%
432,119
Bayit Yehudi טב 12 9.12%
345,985
Shas שס 11 8.75%
331,871
UTJ ג 7 5.16%
195,893
Movement צפ 6 4.99%
189,168
Meretz מרץ 6 4.54%
172,403
Ra’am-Ta’al עם 4 3.66%
138,782
Hadash ו 4 3.00%
113,613
Balad ד 3 2.56%
97,071
Kadima כן 2 2.08%
79,081
Strong Israel נץ 0 1.76%
66,775
Am Shalem ץ 0 1.20%
45,691
Green Leaf קנ 0 1.15%
43,734
Eretz Hadasha ז 0 0.74%
28,080
Koach Lahaspia פז 0 0.74%
28,049
HaYisraelim יק 0 0.50%
18,941
Greens רק 0 0.21%
8,117
Pensioners זך 0 0.16%
5,975
Chaim Bkavod הפ 0 0.10%
3,640
Da’am ק 0 0.09%
3,546
Achim Anachnu פנ 0 0.08%
2,899
Social Justice צק 0 0.08%
2,877
Na Nach פץ 0 0.06%
2,176
Pirates פ 0 0.05%
2,076
Kalkala פי 0 0.05%
1,972
Mitkademet Liberalit נק 0 0.04%
1,352
Or ני 0 0.03%
1,027
Brit Olam נ 0 0.02%
761
Hatikva Leshinui הק 0 0.02%
649
Moreshet Avot הי 0 0.01%
461

I’ll post some other breakdowns in the coming days.

My Guess Poll

33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel

Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold

68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab

* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.

* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
___________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.

Poll of Polls: http://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/18/knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-likud-beitenu-33-7-labor-16-5-bayit-yehudi-14-0-yesh-atid-10-9-shas-10-6-movement-7-2/#comment-1648

Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of Jan 12-18 2013) of 16 polls (3 Panels, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Smith, 2 Midgam, 2 Dahaf, 2 Dialog, Teleseker, New Wave, Geocartography)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 14 average in (brackets):

33.7 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
16.5 (17.3) [08] Labor
14.0 (14.2) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.9 (10.3) [---] Yesh Atid
10.6 (10.3) [10] Shas
7.2 (7.8) [07] Movement
5.8 (6.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5.7 (4.8) [03] Meretz
3.9 (3.7) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.6) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.4 (3.3) [03] Balad
2.3 (1.4) [21] Kadima
1.9 (1.2) [02] Strong Israel
0.6 (1.0) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)

66.3 (67.07) [65] Right-Religious
53.6 (52.92) [55] Center-Left-Arab

Changes from week 14 to week 15:
Yesh Atid passes Shas for 4th place.

Largest Gains: Kadima and Meretz gained 0.9 of a seat each, Meretz and Strong Israel gained 0.7.

Biggest Losses: Labor lost 0.8 of a seat and Movement lost 0.6 of a seat.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
7 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.

* Next post will include my “Guess Poll”.

Panels conducted a poll that was published by the Yisrael Post/Sof Hashauva on Jan 18 2013. Supposedly, this was the last poll conuducted by any company before the deadline.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Strong Israel
02 [21] Kadima
01 [01] Am Shalem (not passing)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

* 8 seats don’t pass Knesset thanks to Am Shalem, Green Leaf, Koach Lahaspia, Eretz Hadasha, Greens who all have around a seat each. There are other small parties that eat up votes.

* 10% are still undecided

Smith conducted a poll that was published by the Jpost.com (Jerusalem Post) on Jan 18 2013. The poll was conducted Wed and Thurs night.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [---] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
06 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [02] Strong Israel (almost 2)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dahaf conducted a poll of 1000 people with an error rate of 0.9 to 3.2 seats for Yediot Achronot that was published on Jan 18 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [---] Yesh Atid
12 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
08 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 2,733 other followers