The first public poll of seats since before the Knesset Election in March 2015 was conducted by Maagar Mochot, a poll of 516 people during the 29th and 30th of November 2015 for 103 FM Radio
31 [30] Likud
20 [24] Zionist Union
15 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [07] Shas
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
67 [67] Right-Religious
53 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Note: Maagar Mochot tied for last among the top-nine polling companies in predicting the 2015 Knesset results, producing a result that was off by 23 seats. However, Maagar Mochot was tied in first place in predicting the blocs with only one seat off, predicting an extra seat for the Center-Left-Arab bloc.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: There are two movements that can be seen in this poll and it is part of an overall trend. Four seats in the Center-Left Bloc move from Opposition Leader Herzog’s Zionist Union to Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid. Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon loses five seats, two to Yisrael Beitenu and one each to Shas, Likud and Bayit Yehudi. The trend here is a slight movement of the Israeli electorate to the right since March.
Maybe people simply noticed that Kahlon has done nothing since the elections.
I’m curious if they had an option for ‘none of the above’ or for ‘will not vote’ ?
Each polling company deals with those options differently. During the course of a term Maagar Mochot usually sticks to the parties in the Knesset instead of polling other parties that missed the threshold. “Will not vote” are never counted in any polling company that respects itself because whoever doesn’t vote doesn’t influence the breakdown of seats.
Its the same as this election.
If Lieberman was in the right – center right would be at 67 as well.
The blocs haven’t changed.
The difference is the same coalition we have now with this poll would be at 59 seats and not 61
This would make it harder for Netanyahu to form a coalition since it would drop to 59. Assuming this is what the election looks like (which it almost certainly won’t) I wonder is what is more likely:
Lieberman burying the hatchet with the Haredi and sitting in a right-wing government. He’s seems adamant about not doing it due to their disagreements about military service and religious laws (conversions, marriages, etc.), but squawking from the opposition has been a gamble.
OR
A Likud-Kulanu-Bayit Yehudi-Israel Beitenu-Yesh Atid coalition of 68. This would be the most neo-liberal coalition economically and Netanyahu sees economic reforms as essential to Israeli security long term. However, there seems to be a lot of bad blood between Netanyahu and Lapid related to the softening of the draft law, election law, and the hardening of the stance towards the Palestinians. Lapid insisted on putting a center-left wing party in the government in 2013 but he probably can’t make that demand next time around because there won’t be a small left wing party like Hatnuah.
Election law?
It’s better called the governance law. He’s diluted the governance law, namely increased the number of ministers and deputy ministers in government. Capping that number at 18 was one of Yesh Atid’s big demands in 2013. Actually they only wanted 15 and no ministers without portfolio. We’re still a long way from the 30 cabinet ministers Netanyahu had in 2009.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/may-11-2015-ayelet-shaked-coalition-obama-netanyahu-ethiopians/
I wonder if lapid would be more willing to sit in a government with a Netanyahu successor such as birkat? Same for lieberman. I personally am sick and tired of likud selling out to the haredim almost every government.