Phase 1 Prediction Analysis
Yesterday I posted the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2015.
Zionist Union 25
Likud 22
The Joint (Arab) List 12
Yesh Atid 12
Bayit Yehudi 12
Kulanu 9
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 4
Few quick notes:
*For those who are wondering, I am expecting a 2-seat margin of error for the larger parties and a 1-seat margin of error for the smaller parties.
*Additionally, there is an indication that many undecided voters will simply end up not voting in this election over choosing a party.
Phase 1 Recap:
#1 – Zionist Union 25 seats:
Background: If you would have told me that the Zionist Union would be the largest list when the election cycle started, I probably would have looked at you funny. That is because it didn’t exist. To be honest, when Opposition Leader Herzog announced he was running for Prime Minister, few people took him seriously, myself included. Labor was averaging third place in the polls, behind the Bayit Yehudi, with 13.4 seats in Week 1, down from the 15 seats Shelly Yachmovich captured in 2013. Meanwhile, Tzipi Livni was polling under the electoral threshold and all of her MKs were looking for their next jobs, negotiating with other parties.
Best Move: Herzog’s decision to save Tzipi Livni’s political career. Word in the Knesset is Livni got her Prime Minister Rotation deal because Herzog was more desperate to make a splash, and Lapid passed because he thought he could snag Kahlon. Labor MKs were furious with the Herzog-Livni deal that left them less spots to compete for in the primary, but knew that voicing their frustrations would make their political survival even more difficult, so they swallowed it.
Before the last elections Livni convinced seven MKs to break off from Kadima to form her party. Her party got six seats, but six of those seven MKs lost their jobs due to low placement on the list that they created for her. Livni knew that Amir Peretz was already on his way back to Labor, following his resignation as a Minister in Netanyahu’s government, and abandoned the rest of her list to join Herzog.
Following the Herzog-Livni merger, the new Zionist Union became the largest list in the polls.
Worst Move: As Zionist Union’s numbers increased, Herzog’s biggest issue remained that many people cast doubt on his ability to form a government. Liberman won’t sit with Meretz, the Haredim won’t sit with Lapid, Kahlon won’t sit with the Arabs. Herzog had an opportunity to prove everyone wrong.
Eight of the eleven lists have a voter exchange agreement. Herzog failed miserably in an attempt to increase their bloc by getting The Joint List to sign a voter exchange agreement so Zionist Union could sign with Yesh Atid. Not only did this harm the seats total of two of the four lists that are part of the Anti-Netanyahu bloc, but it raised serious doubts of The Joint List’s ability to assist Herzog in other technical moves such as nominating him to President Rivlin in Phase 2 or the crucial Knesset vote in Phase 3. This was a leadership type situation in which he needed to prove he could overcome the odds and he was not successful.
Takeaway: Zionist Union has 21 seats together and is expected to win Phase 1 with 25, a simple increase of just four-seats. Livni does own six of those 25 seats and that is her leverage in case Herzog tries to get out of his rotation agreement.
#2 – Likud 22 seats:
Background: Benjamin Netanyahu has been Prime Minister for nine years. Only the country’s founder David Ben-Gurion has sat in that seat for longer. By now you know what you are going to get with Netanyahu, for better or for worse. Netanyahu became increasingly frustrated with his coalition partners following Foreign Minister Liberman’s decision to break up their joint faction. Eventually Netanyahu fired Lapid and Livni and we ended up with the second shortest Knesset in Israel’s history.
Best Move: Netanyahu is still the darling of the Israeli right by turning the election into game theory instead of issues. The slogan “It’s me or them” has been very successful in right-wing circles and has prevented his voters from realizing he hasn’t put out a platform or list of accomplishments on domestic issues. For many nationalists, the fear of a Herzog-Livni led government was enough for Netanyahu and the Likud to stay neck-and-neck with the Zionist Union for a majority of the campaign.
Of course giving a reserved slot to popular former Minister Benny Begin and son of the late Prime Minister Menachem Begin was a slam dunk with hardcore Likud voters. The “trade” of ultra-nationalist Moshe Feiglin for Begin was a move that allowed Netanyahu to appeal towards the center while maintaining his base.
Worst Move: A majority of Israelis answer they want Netanyahu for Prime Minister, but they have issues with the Likud. The Likud failed in its attempts to create an alliance first with Bayit Yehudi and later with Kulanu. Netanyahu has a track record for preferring alliances such as Likud-Gesher-Tzomet, Likud-Achi and Likud-Yisrael Beitenu over running alone. The failed attempt to bring in Kahlon which collapsed on the day of the deadline for submitting the final lists might go down in history as the moment that will haunt Netanyahu.
Takeaway: Likud, like the Zionist Union is expected to gain four-seats. The issue for Likud is that the Zionist Union started with 21 jumping to 25, while the Likud is increasing from 18 to 22.
#3 – The Joint List 12 seats:
Background: Four parties Hadash, Ra’am, Balad and Ta’al were facing the new electoral threshold of 3.25%. They knew that had to get together for a joint list but found it difficult to do so because of internal party issues and egos.
Best Move: Many questioned if it would be possible to have a list with communists, nationalists and religious Muslims on the same list. After four veteran MKs retired the four lists were able to agree on a joint list. All four parties will survive thanks to the technical bloc.
Worst Move: The infighting within the party prevented a vote exchange agreement which will cost them an additional seat. Their increased turnout would have a bigger impact if they were not just one of three lists without an agreement.
Takeaway: MK Tibi was smart to give up the #1 spot and take the #4 spot in return for that crucial #12 seat. This will be the first time Ta’al has 2 MKs.
#4 – Yesh Atid 12 seats:
Background: Yair Lapid went into this election as the largest party with 19 seats. However, Yesh Atid averaged as the sixth largest party with single digits at the start of the campaign cycle. Lapid, who entered politics just two years ago, kept most of his list in tact by choosing just two new names for his top 12. Three MKs made it easy on him by agreeing to retire.
Best Move: Lapid’s campaign took off once he made clear that he plans to stand up against the Haredim. Lapid doubled down on this approach when he tore apart Aryeh Deri during The Debate. People who voted for Lapid in 2013 and had sworn to themselves for the last two years that they would never vote for him again have suddenly decided to return to Yesh Atid because of the Haredim.
Worst Move: Not running on a joint ticket. Lapid passed on Livni, flirted with Liberman and struck out with Kahlon. If Lapid would have signed with one of them, it is very possible it would be Lapid fighting Netanyahu for the Prime Minister chair. Instead Lapid will settle for the consolation prize of hoping for third place.
Takeaway: Despite dropping from 19 seats to 12, Lapid intends to force Herzog’s hand to drop Manuel Trajtenberg and hand him the Finance Minister position because Lapid will have more seats than Kahlon.
#5 – Bayit Yehudi 12 seats:
Background: Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi entered Week 1 as the second largest party with a 16.6 average. Bayit Yehudi was polling consistently as the second largest party in the country in the six months leading up to this campaign cycle.
Best Move: Open Primaries. Bayit Yehudi dropped to third place following the Zionist Union merger, but maintained an average of 15-16 seats in the polls consistently due to the buzz of the only open primary of the campaign season. Just three of the eleven parties have primary elections to choose their list. Bayit Yehudi was the only party this cycle to allow new members to join and vote for their list. A field of new candidates contributed to the spectrum of debate in the primary.
Worst Move: Eli Ochana. Reserved slots are used to balance out a list. It appeared like the Bayit Yehudi list was lacking that right-wing, traditional but not too religious, and from a Sephardic background. Apparently Eli Ochana was the wrong call.
Takeaway: Despite polling as the second largest party for the six months leading up into the election, the current average has Bayit Yehudi repeating its previous 12 seat performance.
#6 – Kulanu 9 seats:
Background: Moshe Kahlon flirted with the idea of starting a new party in the previous election but decided he would wait for the following election so he could be the next “Yair Lapid”. He flirted with joining Lapid and later Netanyahu before deciding to run by himself.
Best Move: Kingmaker attitude. His poker-face on Phase 2 along with his ability to stick to domestic issues has helped him throughout this campaign. Making it clear he is running to be Finance Minister has drawn the interest of many Israelis who believe in his Housing Plan.
Worst Move: Amateurish technical moves. Kahlon didn’t bother to check if there was another party registered with the name Kulanu. The “Na Nach” Breslov Hasidim Party knows as Kulanu Chevraim (we are all friends) registered the party name to run in these elections again, a day before Kahlon. Kahlon had to negotiate with a no-name party for the rights to use the party name he had already unveiled. Kahlon also had to give up on two candidates from his party list because he forgot to tell them to resign in time from their government jobs in time to qualify to run in these elections. You have to feel bad for the poor candidates, although one did benefit from the mass exposure of a press conference.
Takeaway: Moshe Kahlon who succeeded in taking seats from everybody is going to be in the next government as a senior minister, no matter what.
#7 – Shas 7 seats:
Background: The leadership trio of the previous election broke up when Aryeh Deri took the reins of Shas. Ariel Attias left politics and Eli Yishai opted to break off to start his own party.
Best Move: Endorsing Netanyahu for Prime Minister. Deri prefers Herzog, but his voters prefer Netanyahu. Committing to backing Netanyahu for Phase 2 has helped Shas rebound from a very tough campaign.
Worst Move: Performance on the Debate. Yair Lapid ripped Deri apart and almost brought him to tears when he called him a convicted felon who needs to be rehabilitated. Eli Yishai also hammered Deri hard on the content of the leaked tapes and scored a few brownie points.
Takeaway: In a campaign cycle where Shas fell under the threshold early, Deri is proud to drop just four seats and get away with seven seats.
#8 – UTJ 7 seats:
Background: UTJ decided to run the same seven people for the top seven seats again.
Best Move: They had entertaining television advertisements and turning their campaign into the anti-Lapid campaign helped morale among those who don’t have a television.
Worst Move: Not reaching a deal with splinter groups within Ashkanazi Jewry, both Lithuanian and Hasidic sects, that will probably take their votes elsewhere or remain home on Tuesday.
Takeaway: It is all about turnout for UTJ on Election Day with the goal of maintaining their strength.
#9 – Yisrael Beitenu 5 seats
Background: Yisrael Beitenu went into the election with five ministers and 13 seats.
Best Move: Placing popular MK Orly Levy in the #2 position on the list. She is a very popular among the public, but more importantly among the other parties MKs and staff in the Knesset.
Worst Move: Corruption scandals and loss of right flank of the party. It wasn’t just the corruption scandals that plagued the party but the loss of the right-wing side of the party – Ministers Shamir, Landau and Chairman Rotem.
Takeaway: With a loss of eight seats Yisrael Beitenu will be remembered as the loser of this election. Perhaps Liberman regrets his decision to not allow the Haredim to join the government after Netanyahu fired Lapid and Livni.
#10 – Meretz 5 seats
Background: Meretz jumped from 3 to 6 seats in the 2013 election and sat in their usual place in the opposition throughout another term.
Best Move: Clearly articulating that Herzog is not ruling out sitting with Netanyahu in Phase 3 to prevent bleeding to the Zionist Union.
Worst Move: A complicated closed process for selecting their Knesset list by Central Committee instead of an open primary kept Meretz under the radar during the drama of primaries in some parties and new stars being added in others.
Takeaway: Despite polling at four seats in many polls, Meretz had a good week in the last week of polling and should be able to pass the threshold if nothing changes before Election Day.
#11 – Yachad 4 seats
Background: Shas MK Eli Yishai needed a new political home after fighting with Deri and so did Bayit Yehudi MK Yoni Chetboun after he went against Bennett on the new party constitution. Certain Rabbis such as Rabbi Lior and Rabbi Tau were looking for a new Torani political movement to arise.
Best Move: Signing a technical bloc with Baruch Marzel allowed them to pass the threshold.
Worst Move: Signing a technical bloc with Baruch Marzel prevented them from reaching out to more moderate voters.
Takeaway: They should be able to squeak by and pass the electoral threshold.
Upcoming Posts:
Monday – Phase 2 Prediction Analysis.
Tuesday – Phase 3 Prediction Analysis (before polls open).
Tuesday – Election Day (7 AM-10 PM Israel time/No post activity)
Tuesday late night – Exit Polls, Initial Results through the night & Analysis
a pleasure to read and an education. Thank you.
question-do you think trend lines point one way as regards the top two parties?given your two seat margin…do you believe it more likely that likud finishes below your projection and zu above, or do you see too many variables to make an educated estimation?
I have read some pollster claims that likud tends to underperformed its final numbers. my gut says that the big surprise of this election will not be a breakout by 8n e party but an erosion in likud resulting in gains for by and kulanu.
your point about Netanyahu preferring to run on joint tickets has occurred to me. by would be a natural and easily get 35 seats but I understand the two principles are not exactly best buds. the possible Lapid-Kahlon pact is tantalizing as well. I am sure Yair will have a long time to chew on that.
wait with batted breath for your next installment qnd hope we can look forward to occasional analysis during the post election process. thank you for the education throughout this process. had a conversation with an Israeli expat here in NYC and after a while HE was asking ME about the post election details. gave all credit to your site.
good luck to you professionally 8n election day as well, Jeremy
apologies for auto correct butcherings…’8n e’ is supposed to read ‘one,’ for example 😯
Your welcome. I always appreciate the positive feedback.
Predicting trend and momentum is the least scientific aspect of any prediction model, even less so than predicting turnout numbers or which way undecided voters are going to break. Whenever you have room for human error, you need to express a margin of error. I feel confident with my model. I learned from the previous cycle. I do believe it will be the most accurate. I also know it will be wrong.
Who will gain? Who will fall? Likud? Zionist Union? What does history tell us? For every rule there is an exception. All of the polls underestimated Likud in 2003. They received 7-8 more seats than expected in that election cycle. Of course back then it was Ariel Sharon’s Likud.
Back in 2010-2013 I was writing posts about three times a week. I do more interviews than write these days. I know many of my loyal readers here enjoy my analysis spots on VoiceofIsrael.com and I intend to continue to do so.
of course. for my money, one guy who is going to come out of Tuesday with a bright future is your boss. the Rabin square rally ensured no one will blame him for a Netanyahu disaster..and if Likud has a really bad night and Netanyahu steps down he is the face of the right. if Netanyahu over performs or does just well enough to hold on, Bennett is an indispensable partner and heir apparent. worst case for him is a unity govt with Bibi involved. I think a unity govt is more likely if likud implodes and netanyahu steps down…but even in a bibi buji coalition scenario Bennett is the right’s man of principle…he will have his shot one of these years
I think Tuesday night is the end of the line for Bibi…but I will believe it when I see it. I will always have a certain fondness for the man but every story has an ending and over the past week I have increasingly felt like we are watching one. about as unscientific as it gets. we shall see
will give the Voice of Israel spots a listen. thanks again
I admit that I don’t completely agree with your predictions.
I think BY will lose a couple of seats to Likud after the rally last night, in which Bennett didn’t even ask for those present to vote for him, right after Netanyahu as good as told them that the right was doomed if they didn’t all defect to Likud. Netanyahu might also drive Yachad under the threshold, which would pretty well kill his hopes of forming a narrow, right wing government. Also, I think that the JAL, Yesh Atid and Kulanu will probably enjoy a 1-2 seat boost, due to a combination of higher Arab turnout and the tendency for undecideds to vote towards the center. That said, Likud might also end up a couple of seats higher if Netanyahu’s calls are successful.
Having said that, your analysis is still excellent, and I really appreciated your insight into the best/worst moments of each campaign (although I actually think that Likud’s worst move was basically ignoring the economy and not even bothering to release a platform, as that’s a large part of what started the Netanyahu doesn’t care campaign).
Thanks for the great analysis. 🙂
Your welcome. Thanks again. Like I said, I always appreciate the feedback.
If everyone agreed with me completely that would be boring. It is more interesting to have other opinions. Remember we are working off polls that were conducted on Thursday to predict what is supposed to happen on Tuesday when the newscycle is just crazy.
On Lapid, I agree it is a bad move for a guy who was Finance Minister and is running to return to the Finance Ministry to not talk about the economy. However, he could have easily surpassed Labor and become Netanyahu’s rival for this election. The “Anybody but Netanyahu” seats would have gone with Lapid, economy or not, in that situation.
I am inclined to think the rally may boost Likud ,I certainly hope so, possibly to the detriment of BY and Yachad but also possibly the centre I hope. As mentioned above why Likud mostly ignored social issues, eg housing and food costs etc is beyond me.
I’ve always believed that Shas would do better then the polls suggested and that was weeks ago when they were at 4. No science here, just a view that I had an understanding of their electorate. And i will stick with my view that the Rav Ovadia created core is of similar size to UTJ at around 7, and I had no doubts this would not go elsewhere. The question for me always was whether they could pull back any of their soft voters, currently no doubt sitting mostly with Kahlon, Likud, and Yachad. I am going for a one seat pull back here.
Continue to believe that the three determinants will be turnout, Kahlon and Rivlin’s determination to see a national unity government. And whatever one thinks of Bibi’s speech, even he knows that relationships (Jewish community and US executive branch) cannot be repaired without Herzog and Livni.
And good job with analysis. The proof of your efforts success is the civility all commentators have shown throughout.
Kol Hakavod,
Avi
I have seen some comments predicted continued growth in seats of ZU at expense of right. If one looks at the polls from the last few weeks the number of right and left wing seats has been very stable. ZU is taking votes from other parties on the left about 1 or 2 while Likud lost 2-3 to other right wing parties which is why ZU is ahead. Most of the undecided are right or right-center voters. Now many may not vote but to think that the right wing’s voting rate will go down is just not correct. And to think that ZU which is gaining at the expense of other left wing parties is going to over perform as well as Yesh Atid by gaining voters from the right is just wishful thinking on the part of many. The right which includes KAhlon as he is touting his party as the true Begin Likud, and the late increase in his vote numbers is coming from the other right wing parties particularly Likud and particularly from Sephardim, will have at least 65-66 seats. That does not mean Bibi will form the next government but it does mean Herzog will need Kahlon, Shas and either UTJ or Lieberman to form a government. If he does, that government will collapse like Barak’s last government in less than 20 months.
My feeling from reading the sites and blogs the last 48 hours is that Likud at the very least may have stopped the momentum of Labor and maybe even reversed some of it. 24-24 will mean Bibi is the next PM. I also feel Meretz has a better chance of not surviving then Yachad which also means a Likud win
Same blogs that predicted a huge Bibi bump after his Washington speech?;-)
The problem is everyone only listens and talks within their own camp so we are all wrapped up is our own versions of magical thinking.
Dear Ed:
You wrote my initial comment, thank you!
Does anybody know if Yachad has signed a vote sharing agreement? If so, with who? If they don’t pass the threshold, will all those votes be lost from the right? Thanks for any info.
Unfortunately Yachad did not sign any agreement with any party because Shas signed with UTJ & left yishai with no one besides left parties like meretz or Arabs, so rather let the votes get lost then go to the left. It’s important that the right send people to vote for yachad so that 4 seats don’t get lost from the right
I question whether Yachad passing threshold actually helps the right. Obviously on paper it’s 4 seats, but in practice I’m not sure people would view a coalition that includes Baruch Marzel very desirably, anymore so than one with Zoabi. If anything I think it would make a coalition on the right short lived and unstable.
Unfortunately Yachad did not sign any agreement with any party because Shas signed with UTJ & left yishai with no one besides left parties like meretz or Arabs, so rather let the votes get lost then go to the left. It’s important that the right send people to vote for yachad so that 4 seats don’t get lost from the right
Just to answer my own question, an article on Ynet seems to explain that vote-sharing agreements do not help for parties that don’t pass threshold. They cannot be transferred to another party. So if Yachad doesn’t pass, all these votes will indeed be lost from the right.
There are a specific order in determining Knesset seats. Voter exchange agreements only come into play after you have counted the Kosher votes and the parties that didn’t pass the threshold are eliminated.
I’d like to thank you for the numbers and especially for today’s analysis of the assorted parties electoral positions – this is awfully useful for those of us in the US, where analysis focuses on Bibi’s survival. I’ve posted a link to your site twice in the last two days in discussions, since you have done wonderful work painting a picture of this.
Thanks 🙂
What strikes me is that as someone with internet but no TV, that I never see a Likud commercial. An extreme amount of V15, a lot of YA, a little Bennet. and no Likud at all. Have they given up on youth?
Heck, I even got a UTJ ad (possibly independent UTJ) in email. I didn’t know they had TV commercials – I wonder what the point is.
I am sorry to hear that hate is still an important factor in the elections. This would never be accepted in New York State.
As a campaigner I have been impressed with UTJ’s stuff this cycle.
Here is one of UTJ’s more creative campaign videos that I really liked where they remixed their campaign jingle:
Brilliant and really objective coverage.
In reality the whole election until now had centered around the future of Netanyahu, not a very healthy situation.
Only the last week intended voting patterns has shown that people are starting to look at the wider picture.
But what is the point? They aren’t going to get non-Charedi votes, and few Chareidim have televisions.
Here’s a poll that wasn’t published:
“News1 editor Yoav Yitzhak warned readers last week that the polls being published are not necessarily accurate. “Guys, don’t believe the polls,” he wrote. “Some of them are purposely slanted.Yedioth Aharonoth refrained from publishing a poll last weekend whose results indicated that Likud is gaining strength.” (A7)
He also concedes that the media is running an anti-Bibi campaign. So much for “paranoia”.
Jeremy, love the foosball use, but can you or someone else provide a brief translation of the ad?
Just wondering about the turnout for Haredim. Considering that the conscription law may have awakened the sleeping giant… Could there be a big surprise with the religious parties gaining many more seats than anyone would think possible? I think people are under-estimating the turnout for Haredim and this may be their biggest turnout ever. I also believe the polling done by the left-wing media to be very doubtful and that the Arab vote will be tepid. Both Labor and Joint List are not showing accurate polling numbers, both over-inflated. I think Shas and UTJ will both be above 10. Is this possible? Any thoughts…
The thing is that the turnout already increased the last two elections for this reason. I have a cousin who has been here 40 years, with grandchildren, and only accepted citizenship then. There may be fatigue already. I don’t think there is anything else to squeeze out; the Eidah are not going to vote under any circumstances. (Are they also going to try to draft people who refuse to vote nor accept government money on principle? Apparently. So why not the Arabs?)
PS – I need to fly to the States. I made sure to be here Tuesday.
Turnout = Scoreboard.
20 seats for the Haredim is a stretch.
Reason to merge.
I can’t tell you how much I have enjoyed your post, the comments, and your analysis. Please tell us specifically how to find your broadcast on Voice of Israel. Also, let us know where you post articles or how to subscribe to your news letter.
Jeremy, can you report anything on whether the stories have been going viral in the Israeli media about the exposing of the Obama administration’s meddling with their contributions to groups trying to topple Netanyahu? I really hope this does go viral, because I know the Israeli public are hardly fans of Obama and finding this out will likely throw some uncertains back to Bibi because they want someone who can take on Obama if it comes to that.
The only person meddling into Israel’s elections is right wing goon billionaire Sheldon Adelson. And it’s to help Bibi.
He’s a private citizen, he can do whatever he pleases. The U.S. president is NOT supposed to meddle (and it has been CONFIRMED that he has been, which is especially laughable because he used “not wanting to meddle” as an excuse for not meeting with Bibi when he came to the U.S. to give the speech.
Seems like Bibi meddled quite nicely in US politics by agreeing to Boehner’s invite. So I’m happy Obama is returning the favour and helping defeat Bibi.
No, Bibi’s accepting of the invitation was not “meddling”–it was being heard on a matter he has every right to be heard on. Boehner may have been out of line in the manner in which he extended the invitation, and if Obama wants to do some turnabout is fair play with Boehner, fine. But Netanyahu could not say no to being heard on a matter that affects Israel’s very survival, just because proper protocol may not have been followed on Boehner’s part. Obama trying to take that out on Bibi is absolutely juvenile, not to mention stupid, because, I got news for you buddy. If this revelation comes out in Israel to the extent that it should, it ain’t gonna “help defeat Bibi”–it’s only going to bring the undecideds right back TO Bibi. Because the Israeli public doesn’t trust Obama any farther than they can throw him, and they WANT someone in office willing to stand up to him.
Hey all,
Today’s huffpollster (run by huffinton post) discusses the israeli elections (lead story). It analyzes numbers and relies upon Jeremy’s final poll of polls and Haaretz’s numbers. Importantly, it highlights deficiencies in the polling industry in Israel such as some polls ignoring undecideds, not reporting percentages of vote (just seat count) & most importantly not providing details on the polls methodology. I have noted some of these concerns before. It is s very good read!
Top story on the New York Times website right now (Arab Alliance Rises as Force In Israeli Elections) contains the following paragraph:
“Though the Joint List has promised to maintain the tradition of Arab parties’ refusing to join any governing coalition, Mr. Odeh has indicated he will support Mr. Herzog of the center-left Zionist Union if he manages to oust Mr. Netanyahu.”
I’m gonna keep pushing this narrative here, because I think it’s the best shot there is of a Netanyahu ouster (and the incumbent winning is just so BORING to the politics junkie). It goes like this: Herzog needs Lapid AND Kahlon. But if he brings in Lapid he loses the Haredim, and if he brings in Kahlon he loses JAL. So he can’t get to 61, Kahlon jumps ship to BB and we get 4 more years of Likud.
BUT if we parse very carefully what Kahlon is saying – that he won’t “sit in a government” with JAL … well, JAL isn’t trying to sit in the government. I don’t think you’ll see any JAL ministers. I don’t think they want any minister posts. And if there are no JAL ministers, then JAL, by that definition, isn’t “in the government.”
I’ve heard the counter-narrative to the secular-left-center coalition that I’ve been pushing (and that I notice Jeremy offered in his Phase 1 wrap-up the other day): ZU, YA, JAL, Kulanu, Meretz. It’s that you just can’t have JAL and Kulanu in a coalition together. But the counter-counter-narrative is that JAL –isn’t trying to sit in the government–. But they ARE offering their 13-14 votes to Herzog, and their backing of Herzog in Phase 2.
I don’t know if Israel has ever seen this before (maybe Jeremy has some historical insights): “Though the Joint List has promised to maintain the tradition of Arab parties’ refusing to join any governing coalition, Mr. Odeh has indicated he will support Mr. Herzog.” What does that mean? And will it open the door for Kahlon to join up notwithstanding that it will take JAL votes to make him finance minister?
Supporting from the outside was done under Rabin, so it has been done once before. That said, I think this is more useful as a threat in the ZU’s playbook than as an actual government. A government backed by the current Joint Arab List would struggle to hang together for a few weeks. I doubt it could pass a budget and it would definitely fall the first time Israel had to take military action of any kind (which means that Hamas or Hezbollah could basically collapse it at will), if Israel didn’t basically surrender to all of Abbas’ demands… etc…
If the goal is to unseat Netanyahu for a few months, in hopes of Likud ditching Netanyahu in favour of a different leader, working with the Joint Arab List might work (if the government could even last that long). However, if the goal is to actually govern, then working with the JAL like this is pointless.
Finally, even if Odeh wanted to do more, the JAL is a coalition of 4 very different parties, only one of which (with 5 seats) is even nominally under his control. Hanin Zoabi stated very clearly just a few hours ago that she is only sitting in the Knesset in order to undermine it from within, in order to help establish a Palestinian nation ruling over Jaffa and Haifa, and her Balad party is, at least in part, basically a puppet of Qatar. The Northern Islamic Movement is little different from the Muslim Brotherhood in the rest of the Arab World. Maybe something could be worked out with Tibi and the Southern Islamic Movement, but I’m pretty skeptical.
Basically, I do not think the JAL could support any realistic government (even from the outside) without splitting (and Odeh’s party would probably only have 5 MKs after the split). Consequently, as a threat to force Netanyahu out of the PM’s chair, the threat of the JAL supporting from the outside might work. However, it is not viable as a way to govern, deal with the cost of living, negotiate with Abbas, promote affirmative action for Arab Israelis… etc…
So the government in ’92 from my reading did get outsider support from Hadash and one of the Arab parties, so that would be pretty similar. But Rabin had 62 seats without that outsider support.
Which wouldn’t be the case here. This would be a government that RELIES on support from outside to get to 61. Which does appear by all accounts to be unprecedented. So I don’t know if we have any idea how it would go.
So totally fascinating…
Shas was there until 1993.
You need a majority to start a government, you don’t need a majority to maintain a government if you have a bloc supporting you from the outside.
So it’s possible on paper. But has that ever happened before on day one? A coalition that doesn’t even get to 61 in the first instance without outsiders?
Phase 1 Prediction Analysis
Likud 24 Bibi , pushed Left, stood Right
Zionless Union 21 Tznipi Hurtz Left: on the Center alter
The Joint 11 Stayed home in a Stoned stupor
Yesh Atid 11 The Center Folds
Bayit Yehudi 16 The Un: Decided Right
Kahlua 13 The Un: Decided; centered from Left to Right
Shaft 6 The ever hopeful true believers: Left: for the side of the Right!
UTJ 7 Change?
Yisael Beitenu 6 The Russians Centered
Meretz 0 centered on single issue; Left home
Yachad 5 Came right out of the closet!
I would really hope that you are right. But…
Good luck BY!
Jeremy – Any thoughts to how accurate things will be in terms of the bloc math? I noticed they were off quite a bit in 2013 – don’t know how typical that was – have Israeli pollsters improved their methodology, or should we just accept that the bloc math projections could be off by ~4 mandates in either direction?
So a settler rally and then an announcement that there will be no Palestinian state under his watch. Obviously Bibi has given up entirely on coaxing centrist voters back into the Likud camp, and instead he has decided the only shot he has is dog-whistling his way through the country (and media) trying to cannibalize the vote on the right and maybe turn out a few more mandates worth of voters to be able to come close enough to the Zionist Union. BY officials are now saying that they fear that they’ll end up with less than ten seats. So what exactly would an emaciated BY, a below-the-threshold Yachad, and fading YB, and stuttering Likud be able to do in terms of coalition-building or actual governing? Would the Haredim or Kahlon even want to touch that mess with a ten-foot poll? The right is in the middle of a vicious self-cannibalization right now because the momentum is almost entirely on the center-left and they simply don’t know what to do to stop it. As Haaretz put it this morning, Likud has now become the party of settlers rather than the party of the common man. The ordinary, peripheral Likud voter, if he isn’t already a settler or a settler-sympathizer, can either bite the bullet and vote for Bibi, take a risk on Kahlon or even the ZU, or simply stay home. The irony is that Bibi’s turn-out-the-right strategy might have the unintended effect of keeping some Likud voters at home who are interested in a strong Israel, not a Greater Israel. The cake isn’t totally baked, but it’s in the oven. Perhaps Bibi is trying to make Likud big enough to enable him to have a compelling case for national unity, which is probably Likud’s best shot at power right now.
Here are my updated predictions for tomorrow:
ZU: 27
Likud: 20
JL: 16
YA: 15
Kahlon: 10
BY: 10
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
YB: 4
Turnout: 74%
Thanks for your blog, Jeremy. A lot of English-speakers have clearly found it very informative.
Chris, good analysis. I think your ZU and JL numbers are a little wishful thinking but I’m wishing too.
But why would anyone believe Haaretz, a news outlet that makes Meretz seem to be right of Marzel.
It is quite clear that the media in Israel has a strong left wing bias that does represent the masses, so one in no way gets the real picture form these sources.
I should have said that does not represent the masses. I am quite confident that team Likud will have a base of 65 mandates or more
Rivlin will need to be very careful about using mandate totals to guide his recommendation. The extent to which Likud gains from BY or ZU from YA really does not influence what coalitions are possible.
Me three. And regarding media bias to the left, the Adelson propaganda screed, and the J. Post more than compensate for the right. The only newspaper left of center is Haaretz unless you count 972mag.
Both jay G’s and Chris’s prediction are wishful thinking. Although Chris’s analysis is good.
Let me give my one cents worth.
ZU 24-25 depending on vote sharing with Meretz
Likud 22-23 depending on vote sharing with YB
JAL 14
YA 13
BY 12-13
Kulanu 8
Shass 7-8 depending on vote sharing with UTJ
UTJ 6-7
Meretz 5-6
YB 5
Yachad 4
Let me qualify my prediction by stating the margin of error is 100%
Sorry Likud’s vote sharing is with BY
We caught the error and forgive you. MOE = 100% is funny, Moshe, although your #’s look reasonable.
My Day Before the Election Manifesto: 13 “Midot”
QUESTION: Why can “Only Bibi” form a workable coalition and an enduring 20th Knesset?
1) I believe that obvious Bibi-fatigue cannot transform Herzog into a relationship-building leader.
2) I believe in the dynamic reality of the Word of G-d, not the hateful reality of the media.
3) I believe the Left-dominated media is the controlling factor in published polls.
4) I believe Zionism and the Worldwide Left are incompatible, one is Good the other is against it.
5) I believe the Jews of the Worldwide Left are motivated by naked rage against all tradition.
6) I believe the nationalist movement of Am Yisrael is moving towards greater unity of purpose.
7) I believe more in One State for One People than in Two States for Two Peoples.
8) I believe that Jews have more in common with Arabs than what seemingly separates us.
9) I believe the Nations of the World love and respect a bold, strong, spiritual & visionary Israel.
10) Partition of the Land of Israel is the Mother of All Error & Confusion for her inhabitants.
11) I believe that real political power resides with the majority of the people, not a small elite.
12) I believe in faith, Aliyah, settling in Eretz Ysrael and voting, not cheerleading nor criticizing from abroad, being aloof and speaking cynically.
13) I believe Loyalty in All Things is a great virtue, while charisma & personality are feelings.
ANSWER: Even though the waitress at the coffee shop is sweet, kind and looks good to you, it is hard to leave your difficult wife as she knows you, your habits and has your best interest at heart.
Baruch I like it
mmm, has it come to rewriting the Rambam as a final mystical gambit of the right? But then again anti-rationalism is a hallmark of the right and it is clear that the Rambam considered amulets avoda zara so…
I was thinking more of the 13 Midot of Rachamim, not Rambam’s 13 in the Guide for the Perplexed.
Livni gives up rotating prime minister deal with Herzog.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.647104
Terrible timing. Regardless of who people prefer, this announcement smacks of panic given the timing.
Nothing panicky about it. Very smart. Livni will get foreign. Lapid gets rotation PM and kahlon gets finance. Brilliant.
Lapid told Walla that Herzog and the Haredim already have a deal. I doubt it, but that would be a bold move by Buji, putting the pressure on Lapid to either accept and stay in government or allow a right-wing government that he won’t be a part of.
Chris
NICE ONE YAIR !!!
Do not trust Lapid on this. It is just pay back time and Lapid is trying to play on Bibi’s Paranoia and grab a few votes from ZU. But it is more likely to benefit Meretz
The Charedim before the election played on Netanyahu’s paranoia by telling him that that Lapid offered the Charedim a deal.
Absolutely, Moshe.
My prayer: Livni, Lapid & Kahlon all do teshuvah, leave politics and get media jobs.
Politics should be a serious endeavor to affect POLICY, first and foremost, not a game in of itself and unto itself and for oneself.
Livni’s gesture today is too late–she has ruined Labor. I miss Shelly–heading the opposition, of course.
Is Kahlon the only guy in the room who wants the banks to compete? Every oleh has this idea. Easier said then done, once you are in power.
Lapid is not a Tikun of his Abba, the Haredi-Hater Tommy, no matter how much we may wish that role upon him.
Kudos to Herzog for the polite college-try, but he is up against a pit-bull fighter incumbent.
That’s an odd critique. Kahlon seems to be the most policy focused of all.
Herzog has been making inroads in to YA territory. Lapid is responding by saying a vote for ZU is a vote for the Charedim.
Yesh Atid was already considered a lock to be in a potential left coalition. What would Buji be pressuring Lapid over? And why risk turning off undecided voters?
Lapid wanted finance. So did kahlon. By giving kahlon finance Herzog had to give Lapid something else.
To widen the gap between ZU and Likud. Maybe that gap is more optics than anything else, but the bigger the ZU win the harder it will be for Rivlin to let a losing party form the government.
Senior UTJ’s Rabbi withdrawing his support will now make it likely that the UTJ will only get 6 seats.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Haredi-leader-says-theres-no-one-to-vote-for-in-election-effectively-ruling-out-UTJ-394090
Even if Eliyahu HaNavi showed up to lead the coalition, this rabbi would summarily dismiss the Prophet with a wave of his hand.
So the liar finally said what anyone with any knowledge of him knew all along.
http://www.haaretz.com/1.647212
Of course he has no intention of giving Palestinians in the West Bank equal voting rights. But envisions them living in stateless bantustans in the tradition of the Bothas and De Klerks. If Israel wants to ensure its diplomatic, economic and legal isolation, go ahead and re-elect this man.
Before you consign the State of Israel to Dante’s Hell, Giora, please take it to heart that most of us in the One-State movement do, in fact, want a full citizenship track for our PALS, including full voting rights.
Simply put: They have to earn it….somehow.
We differ from BB in this 100% and we feel the fatigue as much as you–but ZU and Jewish self-blame is going backwards.
What will be needed is some sort of positive ACT from the New Israelis: Maintaining a fixed amount of time gainfully employed in a private concern or serving in the National Service or paying taxes or paying utilities or joining a reconciliation/educational organization (there are thousands!) or taking an oath or joining a legitimate national political party, or—why not let our faith and our collective imagination be pressed into service for this noble end?
Also: Let them receive their citizenship through the the Misrad Hapnim (The Ministry of the Interior) by filing out forms, getting detailed background checks and dealing with a very difficult, slow bureaucracy just like the rest of us did.
The Two-State Solution is the last moral tampon of the morally-bankrupt.
What are Arabs and Jews now doing all mixed together in this little spit of Holy Land?
Is there not a Higher Power in control?
Do we not have a Higher Ideal to aspire to than a belligerent divorce and endless distrust?
Do you not think this election is ultimately about this crucial choice?
Scoreboard: Israel votes!
ah now we get it… you are not suggesting Apartheid, you are explicitly suggesting Jim Crow. I’ll take the divorce option, messy or not.
If you want one state, and I’m not saying I disagree with you, it’s one person one vote from day 1. Or it’s two states.
“Simply put: They have to earn it….somehow.”
Good luck with that lol. Don’t expect many people to go along with something so blatantly unjust though, where some have more rights than others simply because of their ancestry.
If one state is the finally outcome (and it may well be, nor do I think there is anything wrong with that), then everyone in Israel-Palestine is going to end up with the same rights to citizenship. We can talk about what’s right or wrong until our faces are blue, but the reality is some sort of equality is the only thing that will be stable. And that’s either equality in one state or equality between two separate states.
The Dayton Agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina would probably the closest model to look at for a one state solution to look at. That divided Bosnia and Herzegovina into two separate cantons, with shared jurisdiction over a few mixed areas. Each canton maintained its own military even, and least until they voluntarily decided to merge them. The agreement has kept the peace at least, though I’m not convinced it has created great governance yet.
I doubt that will happen anytime soon though, mainly because I don’t think Israelis and Palestinians want to live together in one state as equals.
So you want a state where Palestinians outnumber Israelis? How is that sane?
What strange suppositions you make. Isn’t Bibi stating the obvious that the turmoil and security issues in the area means that 2 states now will lead to great security problems. All Labour are saying lets talk about 2 states, the outcome will be the same, all talk ,hopes falsely raised and crash , no 2 states, because the other guys actually want one state and its called Palestine.
I’d say Bibi is more honest, he knows, all the others are just pretending they are discussing a solution with Switzerland and expect us to buy that.
No deal is better than a bad deal.
Honest? The man never has had any intention of agreeing to a Palestinian state. He always finds some excuse. And his party has never agreed to one in its platform.
I’ll stick with the labor Zionist vision of a Jewish democratic state with a solid Jewish majority, doing (as BG, Rabin, Katnelson, Alon and others understood) what is necessary with as little polemics and sophistry as possible. That is why the security establishment and many others support Herzog.
Honest? For a politician, Bibi is not bad… which is not a reflection on how good is Bibi so much as it is on how bad are politicians as a general rule.
Case in point. Bibi never has had any intention of agreeing to a new Arab state, and he was never particularly good about hiding that fact. On the flip side, the Arabs never have had any intention of agreeing to a new Arab state alongside Israel, but in English and Hebrew they’ve been better at hiding the fact.
That whole business of which you complain was an invention of the Leftist Israelis just after the 1967 war as a hope that Land for Peace would catch on. Their biggest hope at the time was to covert the problem into a issue of land and sovereignty, because as a religious issue it was well known that there could be no solution. Unfortunately, just because the Israeli side decided that it needed to be a land issue and not a religious issue for the Arabs, does not mean that the Arabs also made that same decision.
The Israeli Left is slowly realizing that the Land for Peace issue was never the real issue. As such, the claim by some part leaders of the Left that they are still infavor of some form of Land for Peace when they know it that is not the issue, this is the real dishonesty.