Teleseker conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on September 26 2016.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [11] Yesh Atid
21 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [24] Zionist Union
09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Teleseker TNS conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1C on June 21 2016.
Scenario Poll: New Party of Yaalon+Saar+Barak
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
22 [30] Likud
20 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [00] New Yaalon Party with Gideon Saar & Ehud Barak
09 [24] Zionist Union
09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
73 [67] Right-Religious
47 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Questions:
Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?
Don’t know 33%, Netanyahu 23%, Lapid 15%, Yaalon 9%, Saar 6%, Ashkenazi 5%, Herzog 5%, Barak 4%
Who is most suited to lead Likud?
27% Netanyahu, 26% Don’t know, 27% Yaalon, 20% Saar
Does the attack of the generals against Netanyahu hurt his standing?
48% No, 35% Yes, 17% Don’t know
Are you satisfied with the government’s conduct during the latest terror wave?
72% No, 23% Yes, 5% Don’t know
Are you satisfied with the government’s conduct on the economy?
78% No, 19% Yes, 3% Don’t know
| Party | Seats | Smith | -17 | Teleseker | -17 | New Wave | -17 | Panels | -19 | Dialog | -19 | Midgam | -19 | Geo | -20 | Maagar Mochot | -23 | TRI | -23 |
| Likud | 30 | 21 | -9 | 23 | -7 | 23 | -7 | 21 | -9 | 20 | -10 | 22 | -8 | 26 | -4 | 21 | -9 | 24 | -6 |
| Zionist Union | 24 | 25 | -1 | 25 | -1 | 23 | -1 | 25 | -1 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 | -3 | 24 | 24 | |||
| The Joint List | 13 | 13 | 12 | -1 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | |||||
| Yesh Atid | 11 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 | -2 | 13 | -2 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | 12 | -1 | 13 | -2 | 14 | -3 | |
| Kulanu | 10 | 9 | -1 | 9 | -1 | 9 | -1 | 10 | 10 | 8 | -2 | 8 | -2 | 8 | -2 | 8 | -2 | ||
| Bayit Yehudi | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 | -3 | 12 | -4 | 11 | -3 | 12 | -4 | 11 | -3 | 13 | -5 | 13 | -5 | 12 | -4 |
| Shas | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | 5 | -2 | |||||
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 5 | -1 | 5 | -1 | 7 | -1 | 5 | -1 | 4 | -2 | |||
| UTJ | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | -1 | 7 | -1 | ||||
| Merertz | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | |||||||
| Yachad | 0 (3) | 4 | -1 | 4 | -1 | 4 | -1 | 5 | -2 | 5 | -2 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | -1 |
| Company | Off by | Last Poll |
| Smith | -17 | 13-Mar |
| Telesker | -17 | 13-Mar |
| New Wave | -17 | 6-Mar |
| Panels | -19 | 13-Mar |
| Dialog | -19 | 14-Mar |
| Midgam | -19 | 14-Mar |
| Geo | -20 | 8-Mar |
| Maagar Mochot | -23 | 12-Mar |
| TRI | -23 | 10-Mar |
The only pollster to correctly predict Netanyahu’s Phase 2 partners at 67 seats vs his non-Phase 2 partners at 53 seats is Teleseker.
Smith, New Wave, Dialog and Maagar Mochot predicted 66 seats, Panels, Midgam and TRI predicted 64, Geocartography predicted 70.
| Party | Exit Poll AVG | Knesset Jeremy Model | Results after 99.9% | Results vs Exits | Results vs KJ | |||
| Likud | 26.2 | 22 | 30 | +3.8 | +8 | |||
| Zionist Union | 25.6 | 25 | 24 | -1.6 | -1 | |||
| Joint Arab List | 13 | 12 | 13 | 0 | +1 | |||
| Yesh Atid | 11.8 | 12 | 11 | -0.8 | -1 | |||
| Kulanu | 9.6 | 9 | 10 | +0.4 | +1 | |||
| Bayit Yehudi | 8.4 | 12 | 8 | -0.4 | -4 | |||
| Shas | 7.2 | 7 | 7 | -0.2 | 0 | |||
| UTJ | 6.6 | 7 | 6 | -0.6 | -1 | |||
| Yisrael Beitenu | 5.2 | 5 | 6 | +0.8 | +1 | |||
| Meretz | 5.2 | 5 | 5 | -0.2 | 0 | |||
| Yachad | 3.2 | 4 | 0 (3) | -0.2 | -1 |
Facts:
* Both Exit Poll average and Knesset Jeremy average are within 1 seat on 9 of the 11 parties.
* Exit polls are very close to the current results with the exception of Likud that is at +3.8.
* Knesset Jeremy Model published last week is very close to the results with the exception of Likud gaining at the expense of Bayit Yehudi.
Analysis:
* Likud is the “Yesh Atid” of the 2015 elections.
* Likud gradually gained at the expense of Bayit Yehudi during the last four-five days before the elections as indicated by internal polls that were prohibited from being published by Israeli law.
* Likud gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi is similar on a mathematical level to Yesh Atid gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi in previous election.
* Last polls gave us an accurate picture of Thursday-Friday before Likud’s strategic voting offensive against the right was launched.
* Exit polls missed Likud by close to four seats because their model missed a specific demographic or geographic area.
* It will probably take a few days of going over data to understand what they missed.
* Group of parties that are expected to nominate Prime Minister Netanyahu according to Phase 2 prediction was 66 in the Knesset Jeremy Model and that group is now currently at 67.
*This proves that the last minute shift was within the blocs.
Conclusions:
* People are going to focus too much on the polls getting Likud wrong and not enough on the polls more or less getting everything else right.
* I’m looking forward to an interesting and exciting Phase 2 process where I expect Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu to join Likud in nominating Prime Minister Netanyahu to get first crack at putting together his fourth term as Prime Minister.
Updates:
The table has been updated to reflect over 200,000 double envelope votes that were counted on March 19.
| Party | Channel 2 | Channel 10 | Channel 1 | Channel 99 | Channel 20 | Exit Poll AVG | Knesset Jeremy Model | Difference |
| Likud | 28 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 23 | 26.2 | 22 | 4.2 |
| Zionist Union | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 25.6 | 25 | 0.6 |
| Joint Arab List | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 1 |
| Yesh Atid | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11.8 | 12 | -0.2 |
| Kulanu | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9.6 | 9 | 0.6 |
| Bayit Yehudi | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8.4 | 12 | -3.6 |
| Shas | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7.2 | 7 | 0.2 |
| UTJ | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6.6 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | 5 | 0.2 |
| Meretz | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | 5 | 0.2 |
| Yachad | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3.2 | 4 | -0.8 |
According to the average of exit polls, Knesset Jeremy Model predicted 9 of 11 parties within one seat.
The exception being the transfer of votes from Bayit Yehudi to Likud in the final days at an advanced rate.
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