Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #2 (week of Dec 7-Dec 13 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 0 for Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1^st 22.2 (16.8) [21] Labor+LIvni

2^nd 21.2 (23.6) [18] Likud

3^rd 15.7 (16.6) [12] Bayit Yehudi

4^th 10.2 (09.9) [–] Kulanu

5^th 09.5 (11.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

6^th 09.0 (09.8) [19] Yesh Atid

7^th 08.2 (07.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8^th 07.7 (07.6) [11] Shas

9^th 05.8 (06.8) [06] Meretz

10^th 10.0 (10.1) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad *

11^th 00.0 (.01) [02] Kadima

73.5 (76.4) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

46.5 (43.6) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Zionist Camp-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

* I am averaging Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together because 3 of the polls decided to poll them together, even though they haven’t agreed yet on their joint list.

Changes from week 1 to week 2:

Labor (w/addition of Livni) jumps to 1^st place, as Likud drops to 2^nd place & Bayit Yehudi to 3^rd.

Kulanu moves up to 4^th place and Yisrael Beitenu falls to 5^th place.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 5.4 seats, UTJ gained .4 and Kulanu gained .3

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 2.4 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 1.5 seats, Meretz lost 1 seat.

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1^st: Labor-Livni: High – 24 (17), Low – 18 (12)

2^nd: Likud: High – 25 (30), Low – 20 (21)

3^rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (18), Low – 11 (15)

4^th: Kachlon: High – 13 (13), Low – 9 (5)

5^th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 11 (14), Low – 8 (9)

6^th: Yesh Atid: High – 10 (11), Low- 8 (7)

7^th: UTJ: High – 11 (8), Low – 7 (7)

8^th: Shas: High – 10 (9), Low – 6 (6)

9^th: Meretz: High – 6 (8), Low – 5 (5)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 78 (84), Low – 71 (70)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 49 (50), Low – 42 (36)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 2:

1 – Labor-Livni joint ticket provides Anti-BB coalition with momentum. Overall the Center-Left bloc gained 2.9 seats, however a considerable amount of Labor’s increase of 5.4 seats comes at the expense of the other members of the bloc (Meretz, Yesh Atid & Arabs).

2 – This was not a good polling week for Prime Minister Netanyahu, however there is a silver lining. Despite the initial polling success of the Labor-Livni ticket, BB’s possible coalition partners remain with a solid 73.5 seats, compared to the 61 they share today.

3 – Kachlon’s new party has a name – Kulanu. The list and platform are still not clear, but Kulanu is now in double digits and averages as the 4^th largest party.

4 – Polling before the 47-days to election mark is usually influenced by scenario polls, rumors and possible splits and/or alliances. Week 1 was polling under the shadow of the probable Labor-Livni alliance. Week 2 was polling under the shadow of the probable split in Shas along with various rumors regarding a possible split in Bayit Yehudi. Week 3 will probably be polling under the shadow of MK Eli Yishai’s political options, Shaul Mofaz’s political future and possible additions to the Kulanu list.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #1 (week of Nov 30-Dec 6 2014) of 12 polls from 9 polling companies (3 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog, 1 Panels, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 1 Teleseker, 1 New Wave, 1 Geocartography, 1 Sarid):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1^st 23.6 [18] Likud

2^nd 16.6 [12] Bayit Yehudi

3^rd 13.4 [15] Labor

4^th 11.0 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

5^th 09.9 [–] New Kachlon Party

6^th 09.8 [19] Yesh Atid

7^th 07.8 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8^th 07.6 [11] Shas

9^th 06.8 [06] Meretz

10^th 3.4 [06] Movement

11^th ?.? [04] Hadash

12^th ?.? [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

13^th ?.? [03] Balad

14^th .01 [02] Kadima

76.4 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

43.6 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Party Breakdown

1^st: Likud: High – 30 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 21 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
2^nd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 15 (Dec 5 Maagar Mochot)
3^rd: Labor: High – 17 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 12 (3 different polls)
4^th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 14 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 9 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
5^th: Kachlon: High – 13 (Dec 5 New Wave), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Sarid)
6^th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (5 polls), Low-  7 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)
7^th: UTJ: High – 8 (9 polls), Low – 7 (3 polls)
8^th: Shas: High – 9 (3 polls), Low – 6 (Nov 30 Dialog)
9^th: Meretz: High – 8 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Teleseker)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 84 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 70 (Dec 3 Sarid)
Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 36 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)