Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Bennett 2026 gets 29 seats in the latest panel poll conducted for Maariv. Likud gets 21, Democrats 10 and the rest of the field remains in single digits. The current coalition loses 8 seats if Bennett runs. Perhaps most significantly, Smotrich crosses the threshold if Bennett does not run.

Party	Current Seats	W/Bennett	W/O Bennett	Difference
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	29	0	29
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	24	-3
Democrats (Golan)	4	10	13	-3
Shas (Deri)	11	9	10	-1
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	16	-7
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	9	14	-5
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	8	9	-1
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	14	-6
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	6	1
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	0
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	2.10%	4	-4
Balad	0	1.40%	1.90%	-0.50%

Direct Polls also released a poll. For some reason, Channel 14 is only broadcasting polls without Bennett 2026, despite the new party registration. Smith has not released a public poll all month. Midgam and Maagar Mochot have not released a poll this week. The current average is based on polls from the last few days by panels and Kantar, balanced by the latest polls from Midgam and Maagar Mochot.

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	26	25.5
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	21
Democrats (Golan)	4	11	10.5
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	10	9.75
Shas (Deri)	11	10	9.5
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	8.75
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	8	8.5
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	7.75
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.25
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5.5
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	0	2.50%
Balad	0	0	1.90%
Coalition Bloc	68	46
Zionist Opposition Bloc + Bennett 2026	42	64
Arab Opposition Parties	10	10

Radio Interview with KAN English’s Mark Weiss:

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	25	25
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	20.5
Democrats (Golan)	4	11	11
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	10	9.75
Shas (Deri)	11	10	9.5
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	9	8.75
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	8.75
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	8.25
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.25
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5.25
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	0	2.58%
Balad	0	0	1.97%
Coalition Bloc	68	47
Zionist Opposition Bloc + Bennett 2026	42	63
Arab Opposition Parties	10	10

Naftali Bennett is getting 27 seats in the first poll conducted and published following the registration of his new party, Bennett 2026. Likud is getting 20 seats in the poll of 600 people. Bennett got 24 seats and Likud 22 seats in a Kantar poll last week. Perhaps even more significantly, Bennett is grabbing five seats that would otherwise have gone to the parties in the current coalition.

Party	Current Seats	W/Bennett	W/O Bennett	Difference
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	27	N/A	27
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	20	23	-3
Democrats (Golan)	4	10	14	-4
Shas (Deri)	11	10	10	0
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	15	-6
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	9	14	-5
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	9	10	-1
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	15	-7
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	8	-1
Raam (Abbas)	5	6	6	0
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	0
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	2.20%	2.40%	-0.20%
Balad	0	2.10%	2.10%	0

15 years ago today, March 31st, 2010, I launched KnessetJeremy.com

For the past 15 years, Knesset Jeremy has been the leading source of Israeli polling data in English. That’s because of your readership. I want to take this opportunity to thank you. I also want to thank you for encouraging me to come back and post more frequently. I will do my best to remain your Knesset Insider.

This Week…

This week Kantar, Direct Polls and Panels have released polls. Kantar, Panels and Midgam have also released additional questions and/or scenario polls. The current poll average is being updated to reflect their latest polls along with polls from last week by Midgam and Mager Makot, which are also reflected in the previous average. Most poll companies assume that Bennett will indeed run.

Biggest Takeaway: Smotrich under the threshold

Finance Minister Smotrich’s party does not pass the election threshold in any poll or scenario poll this week, with the exception of Direct Polls, which some experts have linked the development directly to the budget passage.

Approval Ratings:

Panels examined Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval rating:
66% Disapprove, 31% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Midgam, which did not survey mandates this week, surveyed the approval rating for the Netanyahu Government and received similar results:
70% Disapprove, 27% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Head-to-Head:

The Kantar poll has Netanyahu beating Gantz and narrowly losing to Eisenkot. Bennett leads Netanyahu by 10%.
41% Other answers, 33% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz
35% Eisenkot, 33% Other answers, 32% Netanyahu
41% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 28% Other answers

In the Midgam poll, Netanyahu defeated Golan, Gantz and Lapid. In addition, Netanyahu led Eisenkot by 5% and Bennett by 7%.
37% Netanyahu, 37% Neither, 21% Golan, 5% Don’t know
35% Neither, 34% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz, 5% Don’t know
35% Netanyahu, 33% Neither, 26% Lapid, 6% Don’t know
34% Netanyahu, 29% Eisenkot, 29% Neither, 8% Don’t know
38% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 24% Neither, 7% Don’t know

Scenario: Eisenkot replaces Gantz as head of the National Unity Party

The Kantar scenario poll showed no difference in the blocs if Eisenkot replaces Gantz. Eisenkot would win 16 seats compared to Gantz’s 9. With Eisenkot as leader – Bennett loses 3, Golan 2, Lieberman and Lapid lose 1 each.

This is another poll that shows that Eisenkot’s popularity remains within the opposition bloc. Another key factor is that in this poll Bennett leads Netanyahu 24-22 if he runs against Gantz, but Netanyahu leads Bennett 22-21 if Eisenkot runs. The poll was conducted on March 25, and surveyed 638 people with a margin of error of 4%.

A Tale of Two Polls

The latest Panels poll shows Naftali Bennett’s new party with a record 27 seats, compared to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which remains at 19 seats for the second week in a row. If Bennett does not run, then Liberman will receive 8 seats, Gantz 7, Lapid 4 and Golan 2 seats. In addition, Likud will receive 4 seats and one seat each for Shas and Otzma. Smotrich is approaching the threshold if Bennett doesn’t run. This is another poll that shows Bennett attracting support from the coalition parties.

Likud is still in the low 20s in other polling companies such as Kantar, Maagar Mochot and Midgam, where Bennett is generally receiving a more modest 24 seats.

On the other hand, Direct Polls have Likud at 31 seats this week. Although it is down from 34 seats in their previous poll, the company continues to present results that are completely different from the other companies. In their latest poll, Lieberman reaches 19 seats, compared to Gantz who drops to 7 seats and Lapid who drops to only 5 seats. Not only does Smotrich cross the threshold in this poll, but he also receives 5 seats.

The Average

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG	Previous
Naftali Bennett Party	0	24	24.3	24
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	21	20.7
Democrats (Golan)	4	11	11	10
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	10	10.3	9.5
Shas (Deri)	11	10	9.5	9.2
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	8.8	9
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	9	8.5	8.5
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	9	8.5	8.2
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.3	7.2
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	5.5
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5	4.7
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	0	2.84%	4
Balad	0	0	1.90%	Under

What’s Next?

Following the merger with New Hope, and with the budget and judicial reform behind them, the coalition will end the winter session with today’s final plenary session and go into recess. I expect there will be more polls this weekend that should reflect public opinion following the winter session. The Knesset will return from recess for the summer session on May 4.

Since my last average, we have had a number of political developments. First, Likud and New Hope agreed to a merger. Second, Otzma rejoined the government following the renewed war in Gaza. Third, the firing of the head of the Shin Bet. Fourth, the government is moving forward with the process of firing the Attorney General. Finally, the Knesset agenda has been settled – the vote on the budget will be held on Tuesday (less than a week before the date that will trigger automatic elections), the judicial reform will be decided on Wednesday, and the Haredi Draft Bill is expected to be advanced but not voted on before the Knesset goes into recess on April 2.

In short, Netanyahu’s main opposition will be either Avigdor Lieberman – or Naftali Bennett if he chooses to run. If Bennett does run, he will have the largest party and it will be easier for him to form a coalition.

Current Polls

Five polls have been conducted since the last average by Panels, Kantar, Midgam and Direct Polls. Four scenario polls have been conducted by Panels, Midgam and Mager Mohot. Kantar and Direct Polls did not poll any scenarios. Maager Mohot polled assuming Bennett is running and surveyed another scenario with Eisenkot at the top of the National Unity ticket.

The main conclusions from the regular polling are that Lieberman replaced Gantz as the second-largest party and would lead his bloc in the next Knesset, and that Ben-Gvir received a bump after rejoining the coalition at the expense of Smotrich, who also fell below the threshold in the Midgam poll.

Gantz’s trend of losing votes to Lieberman – or to Bennett if he runs – is not new, but for the first time in nearly two years, the National Unity Party has dropped back to third place in the polls. What is more interesting is that Smotrich, who was right that the government would renew the war, is the one losing votes to Ben-Gvir, who left the coalition.

Direct polls conducted head-to-head polls in which Netanyahu received 47% to 20% for Lapid and the same 47% to 17% for Gantz. There was no head-to-head between Netanyahu and potential candidates like Bennett or Eisenkot, who were more successful in other polling companies.

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG	Previous
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	26	26.2	26.2
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	16	15.4	14.6
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	14	14.4	14.8
Democrats (Golan)	4	13	13	13.2
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	11	11.2	11.4
Shas (Deri)	11	10	10.2	9.8
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	8	8.4	7.8
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.4	7.6
Hadash-Taal	5	6	5.6	5.4
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	4.6	4.8
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	4	4.2	4.4
Balad	0	0	1.88%	2.12%
Noam (Maoz)	1	0	0	0
Idan Roll Party	*0	0	0	0

Scenario Polls:

If Bennett does run, he will have the largest party. In his best showing this week, Bennett has 25 seats in the latest Maariv panel poll compared to Likud falling to 19, the first time Likud has dropped below 20 seats in a while. There is no poll this week in which Bennett receives fewer seats than Likud or any opposition party receives more than 12 seats.

Bennett’s return would come at the cost of Lieberman losing 6.4 seats and Gantz losing 6.2 seats – but what makes his run interesting is his ability to cut into the coalition bloc’s support. Compared to the average polls without Bennett, the average polls with Bennett show Likud dropping 5.5 seats and Smotrich dropping to reach the threshold (he falls under in the Midgam poll).

In the Maagar Mochot scenario poll in which Eisenkot leads the National Unity Party instead of Gantz, the party receives 12 seats. In the scenario, Eisenkot gains two seats, but Otzma also gains two seats. Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid and Golan would each lose a seat. This is another poll that shows that an Eisenkot run would win more seats for his party, but it would come mainly at the expense of the opposition bloc.

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG	w/o Bennett
Naftali Bennett Party	0	24	24	0
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	20.7	26.2
Democrats (Golan)	4	10	10	13
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	10	9.5	11.2
Shas (Deri)	11	9	9.2	10.2
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	9	15.4
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	8	8.5	8.4
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	8.2	14.4
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.2	7.4
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5.5	5.6
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	4.7	4.6
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	4	4	4.2

What’s Next?

We’ll see how Israeli public opinion reacts in the next week and a half before the Knesset goes into recess. Now that the coalition is back to 68 seats, I expect the coalition to pass the budget and the judicial reform. The next coalition crisis will likely be over the Haredi Draft Bill, although a crisis could arise if there is another hostage exchange agreement that leads to a ceasefire and/or the release of more Hamas terrorists.

The Knesset will return from recess for the summer session on May 4th, and will be in session for less than 3 months until July 27th (with a Shevuot break in between). If the government survives this session, it will go into recess until October 19th – which will also likely ensure that elections will be held in 2026. Because of this, extreme pressure will likely be exerted on the coalition from May to July, from within and without. UTJ leader Goldknopf has set a deadline of May 31st for passing the Haredi Draft Bill.