Tag Archive: panels


Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Dec 8 2014.

Panels also conducted a scenario poll with Livni Party joining Labor.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                          

21 [18] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

17 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [–] New Kachlon Party

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

07 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

 

74 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

46 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

 

Scenario Poll:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                           

23 [21] Labor+Livni (Movement)

21 [18] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

09 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [–] New Kachlon Party

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)
Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

26% Netanyahu, 15% Herzog, 11% Bennett,

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Just like the Smith poll last week the Panels poll finds that a joint Herzog-Livni ticket would be the largest party however it only brings an extra 2 seats to the Anti-BB coalition, far off from helping the center-left-arab bloc form any sort of government.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #1 (week of Nov 30-Dec 6 2014) of 12 polls from 9 polling companies (3 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog, 1 Panels, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 1 Teleseker, 1 New Wave, 1 Geocartography, 1 Sarid):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.6 [18] Likud

2nd 16.6 [12] Bayit Yehudi

3rd 13.4 [15] Labor

4th 11.0 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

5th 09.9 [–] New Kachlon Party

6th 09.8 [19] Yesh Atid

7th 07.8 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 07.6 [11] Shas

9th 06.8 [06] Meretz

10th 3.4 [06] Movement

11th ?.? [04] Hadash

12th ?.? [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

13th ?.? [03] Balad

14th .01 [02] Kadima

 

76.4 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

43.6 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Party Breakdown

1st: Likud: High – 30 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 21 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
2nd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 15 (Dec 5 Maagar Mochot)
3rd: Labor: High – 17 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 12 (3 different polls)
4th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 14 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 9 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
5th: Kachlon: High – 13 (Dec 5 New Wave), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Sarid)
6th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (5 polls), Low-  7 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)
7th: UTJ: High – 8 (9 polls), Low – 7 (3 polls)
8th: Shas: High – 9 (3 polls), Low – 6 (Nov 30 Dialog)
9th: Meretz: High – 8 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Teleseker)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 84 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 70 (Dec 3 Sarid)
Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 36 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)

Panels conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 4 2014.

In the next elections you will vote for the party that advances what agenda?

38% Lowering cost of living, 26% Security Issues, 14% Reducing the gaps, 13% Peace agreement, 9% Don’t know

Do you plan on voting in the next elections?

74% Yes, 16% Think so, 3% Probably not, 1% No, 6% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 500 people with a margin of error of 4.3% that was published by Maariv & Jerusalem Post on Dec 5 2014.

 

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [18] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [–] New Kachlon Party

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

05 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [06] Movement

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

74 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

46 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

 

Additional Questions:

Do you want Netanyahu to be re-elected?

60% No, 34% Yes, 6% Don’t know

What issue will decide which party you vote for on Election Day?

34% Economy, 30% Security, 14% Social Justice, 10% Religion & State, 5% Arab-Jewish relations, 4% Don’t know, 2% Education & Culture, 1% Israel’s Foreign Relations.

Head-to-head, who would you like to see as Prime Minister?

46% Kachlon , 36% Netanyahu, 18% Don’t know

43% Saar, 38% Netanyahu, 19% Don’t know

45% Netanyahu, 44% Herzog, 11% Don’t know

43% Netanyahu, 31% Bennett, 26%Don’t know

51% Netanyahu, 34% Lapid, 15% Don’t know

51% Netanyahu, 23% Liberman, 26% Don’t know

Who is the most trustworthy in your eyes?

17% Kachlon, 14% Herzog, 13% Bennett, 11% Livni, 10% Netanyahu, 10% Saar, 7% Lapid, 6% Yaalon, 3% Liberman, 9% Don’t know.

Other results:

64% answered that country’s socioeconomic situation has gotten worse under the outgoing government and 58% think the security situation has worsened.

102 days until Election Day.

Elections are supposed to be held on March 17th 2015. We are at an early stage of polling. Elections have not yet been officially called, that happens on Monday. We do not know yet how many new parties will run and which existing parties will split, merge or run on a joint ticket. Jan 29th 2015 is an important date. It will most likely be the day where they finalize the list of parties running, along with their full candidate lists. From that point on polling will make more sense.

We are going into election season and this is a great time to take a look at the top polling companies and their accuracy. In previous posts I gave in-depth analysis on 2009 & 2013 election results.

If we are to combine the last two elections: Smith & Panels are the most accurate. In both elections they were among the top 3 most accurate. Maagar Mochot was in the top 3 during the 2009 elections & New Wave was in the top 3 for the 2013 elections.

Shvakim Panorama & Dahaf, two of the least accurate polling companies will not be polling the 2015 election. Dahaf, the least accurate in the last two elections, closed their doors & Prof. Mina Tzemech moved to Midgam.

I will be starting shortly with the weekly Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls series that was very popular in the last election. Many people have asked me about the trends of certain polling companies in regards to specific parties. It is important to point out that sometimes it was the high or the low result that was the actual accurate result. The point of this exercise is to show which polling companies are on the outlier for each political party. Here is a list of how the top 8 polling companies leaned in recent elections, in alphabetical order.

Dialog: In the 2013 elections Dialog was high on Shas & Yesh Atid. Dialog was low on Likud Beitenu & UTJ. Back in 2009 Dialog was high on both Meretz & Kadima.

Geocartography: In 2013 Prof. Dagani was high on Bayit Yehudi. He was low on Likud Beitenu & Shas.
During the 2009 he was high on Yisrael Beitenu. It is important to point that in general the right bloc does very well in Dagani polls.

Maagar Mochot: Prof. Katz was high on Likud Beitenu, Shas & Meretz in 2013. He was low on Livni, Yesh Atid & Labor. Back in 2009 he was low on Labor as well.

Midgam: In 2013 Prof. Gava was high on Yesh Atid & Livni. He was also low on Meretz.

New Wave: In 2013 New Wave was high on Yesh Atid and Low on Meretz. During 2009 they were high on Likud.

Panels: In 2013 Prof. Lazar was low on Shas. In 2009 he was high on Kadima.

Smith: In 2013 Prof. Smith was high on Yesh Atid.

Telesker: In 2013 they were high on Labor and low on Shas & Meretz. In 2009 they were also high on Labor.