Tag Archive: KnessetJeremy


Miskar conducted a poll that was published by Arutz 7 (Israel National News) on January 10 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [04] Bayit Yehudi + National Union + Otzma (R.Peretz)
04 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll #1: HaYamin HeHadash + National Union, Bayit Yehudi + Otzma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [05] HaYamin HeHadash + National Union (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.7% [02] Bayit Yehudi + Otzma (R.Peretz)
00 [01] Green Party

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Panels conducted a poll of 520 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Maariv & The Jerusalem Post on January 3 2020. The poll was conducted on Jan 1.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
0.0% [00] All Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
28 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
06 [–] Saar Party
04 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

62 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
51 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 40% Gantz, 19% Don’t know

Do you support Netanyahu’s immunity bid?

47% No, 35% Yes, 17% Don’t know

Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 916 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on January 2 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
00 [00] All Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
06 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Labor & Democratic Union unite

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [11] Labor (A.Peretz) + Democratic Union (Horowitz)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 33% Gantz, 13% Neither, 12% Don’t know

Do you support Netanyahu’s immunity bid?

50% No, 27% Yes, 14% No opinion, 9% Don’t know

Midgam conducted a poll of 504 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on January 2 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz + Shafir)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz + Smotrich)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

0.0% [00] All Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Smotrich leaves United Right List and Shafir leaves Democratic Union.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.6% [02] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
0.9% [02] National Union/Tekuma (Smotrich)
0.0% [01] Green party (Shafir)
0.0% [00] All Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 39% Gantz, 21% Don’t know

Kantar conducted a poll of 548 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on January 2 2020.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3% [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)
00 [00] All Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Do you support Netanyahu’s immunity bid?

52% No, 28% Yes, 20% Don’t know

Right Bloc: 61% Yes
Center-Left: 84% No

Knesset Jeremy Polling Average. State of the race updated on Jan 1st 2020.

PlacePartyLeader2019 – 3rd Election (7 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
1stBlue & WhiteGantz35.634.533
2ndLikud Netanyahu32.132.832
3rdJoint List Odeh13.112.813
4thShas Deri8.17.959
5thYisrael BeitenuLieberman7.688
6thUTJLitzman7.17.37
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett5.65.953
8thLaborA. Peretz5.34.956
9thDemocratic UnionHorowitz3.74.555
10thUnited Right ListR. Peretz1.81.24
Bloc2019 – 3rd Election (7 Polls)Between 2nd & 3rd Election (20 Polls)Current Seats
Center-Left-Arab57.757.157
Right-Religious54.754.955
Lieberman7.688

Note #1: The current KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 7 polls that were released by Midgam (2), Smith (2), Maagar Mochot (1), Kantar (1) & Panels (1). The first poll was broadcast on December 12th 2019 and the last poll was broadcast on December 29 2019.

Note #2: The previous KnessetJeremy Average is based on the 20 polls that were released by Midgam (6), Maagar Mochot (6), Panel Project HaMdigam (4), Kantar (2), Smith (1), & Panels (1). The first poll was Oct 7 and the last poll was Dec 10. 3 polls were conducted in October, 12 polls were conducted in November & 5 polls were conducted in December.

Note #3: Results are calculated to allow me to maintain an 120-seat framework for the blocs.

Midgam conducted a poll of 507 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on December 29 2019.

Note: This is the first poll released since Benjamin Netanyahu defeated Gideon Saar in the Likud Primary.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [00] All Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 38% Gantz, 16% Neither, 6% Don’t know

Right: 62% Netanyahu, 18% Gantz, 15% Neither, 5% Don’t know
Center-Left: 64% Gantz, 18% Neither, 10% Netanyahu, 8% Don’t know

Do you support or oppose immunity for Prime Minister Netanyahu?

51% Oppose, 33% Support, 16% Don’t know

Right: 47% Support, 35% Oppose, 18% Don’t know
Center-Left: 80% Oppose, 11% Support, 9% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 851 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on December 20 2019. The poll was conducted Dec 18.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

38 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.7% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
2.1% [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
1.6% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Saar)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.6% [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

60 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Smith conducted a poll of 800 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Radio 103 FM on December 20 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Others

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
06 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

43% Netanyahu, 38% Saar, 19% Don’t know

Likud voters: 80% Netanyahu, 12% Saar, 8% Don’t know

Kantar conducted a poll of 559 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on December 15 2019. The poll was conducted on Dec 15.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
53 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
27 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

For Right-Religious voters:
Do you support taking apart the right wing bloc after the elections?

52% No, 32% Don’t know, 16% Yes

For Center-Left-Arab voters:
Should Gantz have formed a government with the Joint List to avoid elections?

54% Yes, 28% No, 18% Don’t know

*Correction: The above question was originally presented as a question directed at all Israelis as it was when it was originally aired on television. Pollster & Analyst Dahlia Scheindlin pointed out to me the correction made by Kantar that indeed that question was only for the Center-Left-Arab bloc of voters.