Tag Archive: KnessetJeremy


The latest Weekend Perspective piece “Israeli Elections 2019 Knesset Insider: The divisions before the unions” can be found at the link below:

https://www.jns.org/israeli-elections-2019-knesset-insider-the-divisions-before-the-unions/

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sunday January 6th 2018.

PlacePartyCurrent AvgChangeWeek 1 AVGCurrent
1stLikud28.81.227.630
2ndIsrael Resilience12.8-0.613.40
3rdYesh Atid12.7-0.112.811
4thJoint List11.7-0.712.413
5thHaYamin HeHadash8.8-1.610.43
6thLabor (*Week 1: Zionist Union)8.2-0.68.824
7thUTJ6.7-0.376
8thKulanu5.5-0.15.610
9thMeretz5.5-0.15.65
10thShas50.24.87
11thGesher4.80.24.61
12thYisrael Beitenu4.50.73.85
13thBayit Yehudi2.8-0.43.25
14thLivni (*Week 1: Zionist Union)1.51.500
15thOther0.70.700
Right-Religious62.80.462.466
Center-Left-Arab57.2-0.457.654

Note: The average polling of parties that are under 4 seats including parties listed under “other” is weighted down to reflect the chances of those parties passing the threshold under the current average and do not reflect their actual average in polling. This allows the model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 2025 Dati Leumi and Haredi Leumi voters with a 2% margin of error for Makor Rishon that was published on Jan 4 2019.

Who do you vote for in the last elections?

75.2% Bayit Yehudi, 10% Likud, 9.8% Yachad, 2.6% Other, 0.9% Didn’t vote, 0.7% Shas, 0.4% Yesh Atid, 0.3% Kulanu

Who will you vote for in this election?

45.6% Bayit Yehudi, 21.8% HaYamin HeHadash, 17.9% Undecided, 8.7% Likud, 3.4% Other, 0.5% Shas, 0.4% Gesher, 0.2% Israel Resilience, 0% Kulanu

Do you support or oppose Bennett & Shaked’s decision?

39.6% Oppose, 37.5% Support, 13.2% Depends on who is chosen on both lists, 9.7% Undecided

Young voters: 47.6% Support, 28.2% Oppose, 13.9% Depends on list, 10.4% Undecided
Hardal voters: 38.8% Oppose, 36.6% Support, 13.8% Depends on the list, 10.8% Undecided

What is the main reason for you position on the previous question?

26% Dangerous for the right bloc, 24.9% Harms the religious zionist base, 23.5% To achieve national leadership it is not enough to be sectorial, 15.2% Should strengthen the right bloc, 10.5% It was expected for a long time

Note: 34.1% of young voters answered “To achieve national leadership” compared to 16.1% of Hardal voters.

Do you support a joint list of Bayit Yehudi and Tekuma with Yachad of Eli Yishai and/or Otzma?

66.9% Yes, 22.6% Depends on each list, 6.6% No, 4% Undecided

What was the motive behind Bennett and Shaked leaving?

39.5% Ideology and personal gain, 28.8% Personal gain, 22.8% Ideology and values, 8.8% Don’t know

Note: More than a third of young Bayit Yehudi voters answered the motives were ideology and values.

Who should lead the Bayit Yehudi list?

40.4% Smotrich, 38.2% Someone new, 9.3% Ben Dahan, 6.3% Ariel, 5.9% Yogev

Midgam conducted a poll of 507 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 13 that was published on Jan 5 2019.

Who should lead the Yamin HeHadash list in the next elections?

40% Don’t know, 33% Bennett, 27% Shaked

Was Avi Gabbai justified or not justified in breaking up his partnership with Tzipi Livni?

39% Justified, 36% Don’t know, 25% Not Justified

Should AG Avichai Mandelblit publicize his decision on an indictment pending a hearing against Prime Minister Netanyahu before the elections?

64% Yes, 22% No, 14% Don’t know

Do you support for ex IDF COS Gabi Ashekenazi joining politics before the election?

47% Yes, 34% No, 19% Don’t know

Shvakim Panorama conducted an internal poll for Yisrael Beitenu that was published on journalist Attila Somfalvi’s twitter feed on Jan 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud
13 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [18] Labor
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu
04 [06] Livni Party
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Telem (Yaalon) , Zehut (Feiglin), Otzma (Marzel), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Note: Internal poll won’t be used in the average..

Panels conducted a poll with a 4.3% margin of error for Maariv that was published on Jan 4 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
11 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
08 [18] Labor
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [06] Livni Party – under threshold – 2.7%
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – 2.5%
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon) , Zehut (Feiglin), Otzma (Marzel), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Question/Note

Who is better suited to be Prime Minister?

49% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz, 25% Don’t know

Note: The poll was presented as a scenario poll where people are asked to vote in the event Netanyahu is facing an indictment pending a hearing that will take place before the election.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 502 Religious Zionists for BSheva that was published on Jan 4 2019.

Who do you plan on voting for?

25.1% Don’t know, 22.6% Likud, 16.2% HaYamin HeHadash, 14.4% Bayit Yehudi-Tekuma, 4.4% Otzma, 4.2% Shas, 3.2% Yachad, 2.8% UTJ, 1.8% Gesher, 1.2% Kulanu, 1% Zehut, 0.8% Israel Resilience, 0.8% Yesh Atid, 0.4% Labor, 0.4% Livni, 0.4% Meretz

From a scale of 1-10 how sure are you of your vote?

9.5 Meretz, 8.08 Yesh Atid, 7.62 Shas, 7.5 Yisrael Beitenu, 7.41 Otzma, 7.4 Zehut, 7.3 Bayit Yehudi-Tekuma, 7 Livni Party, 6.93 UTJ, 6.83 Kulanu, 6.81 Yachad, 6.5 Labor, 6.22 Gesher, 5.25 Israel Resilience, 5 Yesh Atid, 3.92 HaYamin HeHadash

Are you pleased or not pleased with the conduct of the 5 remaining MKs?

MK Smotrich: 47% Very pleased, 25% Pleased, 21% Not so pleased, 7% Not pleased
Deputy Minister Ben Dahan: 42% Pleased, 31% Very pleased, 14% Not pleased, 13% Not so pleased
MK Yogev: 38% Pleased, 27% Not so pleased, 25% Very pleased, 10% Not pleased
Minister Ariel: 37% Pleased, 34% Not so pleased, 18% Very pleased, 11% Not pleased
MK Slomiansky: 31% Not pleased, 28% Pleased, 24% Not so pleased, 17% Very pleased

Will adding Yachad to the new list increase or decrease chances you vote for the list?

48% Increase, 33% No difference, 15% Decrease, 4% Don’t know

Will adding Otzma to the new list increase or decrease chances you vote for the list?

37% Increase, 31% No differnece, 25% Decrease, 7% Don’t know

Who should lead the new Bayit Yehudi-Tekuma list?

54% Smotrich, 14% Ariel, 9% Ben Dahan, 7% Bennett, 5% Druckman, 5% Yogev, 2% Hetzani, 2% Peretz, 2% Sivan Rahav Meir

What three names from this list do you want to see in the new Bayit Yehudi-Tekuma list?

17% Orit Struk, 16% Miriam Peretz, 13% Haim Navon, 10% Avichai Boaron, 8% Avraham Lipshitz, 7% Amichai Eliyahu, 6% Sar Shalom Gerbi, 4% Leah Wisel, 4% Elishiv Richner, 4% Malka Fitrrakovski, 3% Boaz Hetzani, 2% Sirat Malach, 2% Yehudit Shilat, 1% Yonatan Dubov, 1% Eretz Tzadock, 1% Shmuel Shetach

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 443 people with a 4% margin of error for Makor Rishon that was published on Jan 4 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud
17 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
10 [18] Labor
10 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [10] Kulanu
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Zehut (Feiglin), Otzma (Marzel), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.


Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 498 people and a 4.3% margin of error for Radio 103 that was broadcast on Jan 4 2019.

If Netanyahu does not run for Prime MInister which Likud Minister should replace him?

21% Yisrael Katz, 15% Gideon Saar, 8% Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein

Likud voters: 35% Y.Katz, 25% Saar, 13% Erdan, Edelstein


Smith conducted a poll of 545 people and a 4.5% margin of error for the Jerusalem Post that was published on Jan 3 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
14 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Yesh Atid
09 [18] Labor
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Zehut (Feiglin), Otzma (Marzel), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Questions:

If the Attorney-General decides on an indictment subject to a pre-election hearing, should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign?

51% Yes, 34% No, 15% Don’t know

Between the following people who do you think would be most fitting to serve as Prime Minister?

39% Netanyahu, 22% Don’t know, 14% Gantz, 9% Lapid, 7% Bennett, 5% Liberman, 4% Gabbai

Likud voters: 78% Netanyahu
Zionist Union voters: 41% Gabbai, 29% Don’t know, 14% Lapid, 10% Gabbai