Tag Archive: Knesset Jeremy


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sunday January 31st 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 5 AVGCurrent
1stLikudNetanyahu30300.729.330
2ndIsrael ResilienceGantz2221.87.514.30
3rdYesh AtidLapid1010.2-2.112.311
4thHaYamin HeHadashBennett77-183
5thLaborGabbai76.8-1.98.718
6thUTJLitzman76.5-0.26.76
7thJoint ListOdeh66.20.2612
8thTaalTibi66.20.261
9thMeretzZandberg54.8-0.55.35
10thKulanuKahlon54.5-0.24.710
11thYisrael BeitenuLiberman44.5-0.24.75
12thShasDeri44.5-0.85.37
13thBayit Yehudi?44045
14thGesherLevy33-1.74.71
15thLivniLivni00006
16thOtherOthers00000
Right-Religious6161-1.762.766
Center-Left-Arab59591.757.354

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the four polls that were conducted after Gantz’s speech (Panels, Panel Project HaMidgam, Midgam and Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted on Feb 20-21 2019.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Direct Polls conducted a poll of 538 people with a 4.5% margin of error for Kan that was broadcast on Jan 30 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
23 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Otzma (Marzel), Green Leaf, Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv) and Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) are all under 3.25% threshold.

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

47% Netanyahu, 41% Gantz, 12% Neither
49% Netanyahu, 37% Neither, 14% Lapid
50% Netanyahu, 42% Neither, 8% Gabbai

Where would you place Gantz on the political map?

34% Center, 25% Center-left, 21% Center-Right, 13% Left, 6% Right

Midgam conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 12 that was broadcast on Jan 30 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

2.4% [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
2.1% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
0.8% [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Green Leaf, Yachad (Eli Yishai), Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv) and Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) are all under 3.25% threshold.

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Note: Labor at 6 seats is the lowest all-time showing in any poll.

Scenario Poll #1: Lapid #1 + Gantz #2 on same list

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

2.4% [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
2.3% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario Poll #2: Gantz #1 + Lapid #2 on same list

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

2.4% [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
1.9% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.6% [—] Green Leaf

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Question:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 16% Neither, 13% Don’t know

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 754 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Jan 30 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
24 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [06] Livni Party – 2 seats, but under threshold
00 [–-] Otzma (Marzel), Green Leaf, Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv) and Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) are all under 3.25% threshold.

59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

42% Netanyahu, 42% Gantz, 16% Don’t know
51% Netanyahu, 30% Lapid, 19% Don’t know

Who should lead a big mega center-left bloc party?

46% Gantz, 28% Don’t know 18% Lapid, 8% Gabbai

Where is Gantz on the political spectrum?

30% Not right or left, 28% Don’t know, 24% Left, 18% Right

Panels conducted a poll of 1009 people with a 3.2% margin of error for Walla that was published on Jan 30 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

2.3% [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
1.8% [–-] Green Leaf – under electoral threshold
1.4% [06] Livni Party – under electoral threshold
1.4% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin) – under electoral threshold
1.2% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold

Under 1%:
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) are all under 3.25% threshold.

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Note: Israel Resilience voters based on 2015 choice – 8 seats from Zionist Union, 4 from Yesh Atid, 3 from Likud, 1 from Kulanu.
41% Center voters, 32% Left voters, 27% Right voters

Scenario Poll #1: Gantz + Yaalon + Levy

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
24 [01] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Gesher (Orly Levy)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi

2.8% [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
2.1% [–-] Green Leaf – under electoral threshold
1.6% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin) – under electoral threshold
1.3% [06] Livni Party – under electoral threshold
1.3% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold

Under 1%:
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) are all under 3.25% threshold.

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario Poll #2: Gantz + Yaalon + Ashkenazi + Lapid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
27 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

2.6% [–-] Otzma (Marzel) – under electoral threshold
2.0% [–-] Green Leaf – under electoral threshold
1.4% [06] Livni Party – under electoral threshold
1.4% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai) – under electoral threshold
1.1% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin) – under electoral threshold

Under 1%:
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) are all under 3.25% threshold.


59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Questions:

How did Gantz’s speech change your opinion of him?

61% Didn’t change, 27% For the better, 12% For the worse

Left: 49% Better, 46% No difference, 5% Worse
Center: 49% No difference, 43% Better, 8% Worse
Right: 68% No difference, 17% Worse, 15% Better

If there is a Gantz + Yaalon + Ashkenazi + Lapid party who should lead it?

45% Gantz, 37% Don’t know, 18% Lapid

Gantz-Lapid voters: 65% Gantz, 25% Lapid, 10% Don’t know