Tag Archive: knesset insider


Panels conducted a poll of 1049 people with a 3.3% margin of error for Walla that was published on Feb 20 2019. The poll was conducted on Deb 19-20.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
13 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.9% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2.8% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
1.7% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.0% [–-] Green Leaf
Less than 1%: Yachad (Eli Yishai), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others.

59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Scenario Poll #1: Gantz + Lapid + Levy

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [12] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Gesher (Orly Levy)
33 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)

2.8% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2.8% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
1.3% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.0% [–-] Green Leaf

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Scenario Poll #2: Gantz + Lapid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
33 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)

2.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
2.8% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2.2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.5% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.0% [–-] Green Leaf

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Scenario Poll #3: Gantz + Levy

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
23 [01] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Gesher (Orly Levy)
13 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)

2.8% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2.8% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
1.7% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.0% [–-] Green Leaf

59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 543 people with a 4.2% margin of error for Kan (Channel 11) that was conducted on Feb 16 2019 and broadcast on Feb 17 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
10 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.2% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
1.0% [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
0.9% [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
0.5% [06] Livni Party
Under 0.5%: [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and other

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Midgam conducted a poll of 502 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 12 that was conducted and broadcast on Feb 17 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
18 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3.0% [–] Yachad (Eli Yishai) + Otzma (Ben Ari)
2.0% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.8% [06] Livni Party
0.8% [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
Below 1%: Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll: Gantz + Lapid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid)
31 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3.0% [–] Yachad (Eli Yishai) + Otzma (Ben Ari)
2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.4% [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.1% [06] Livni Party
Below 1%: Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Question:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahyu, 31% Gantz, 22% Neither, 11% Don’t know

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 437 people with a 4.3% margin of error for 103 FM radio that was broadcast on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted on Feb 15 2019.

Do you want to see Ehud Barak return to the political leadership in the upcoming Knesset elections?

54% No, 34% Don’t care, 12% Yes

Note: The seat results are identical to the seat distribution Maagar Mochot produced for Yisrael HaYom on the same day. I have updated that poll to reflect the numbers without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.
Those results are here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/02/14/yisrael-hayom-poll-likud-30-israel-resilience-19-yesh-atid-12-joint-list-9-utj-9/

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 16th 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 7 AVGCurrent
1stLikudNetanyahu313103130
2ndIsrael ResilienceGantz2019.8-1.521.30
3rdYesh AtidLapid1211.20.310.911
4thLaborGabbai993.55.518
5thHaYamin HeHadashBennett87.80.67.23
6thUTJLitzman87.516.56
7thJoint ListOdeh76.5-0.16.612
8thTaalTibi76.20.65.61
9thShasDeri55.20.34.97
10thMeretzZandberg55.20.44.85
11thKulanuKahlon43.8-0.34.110
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.5-0.545
13thGesherLevy02021
14thOtherOthers01.3-0.41.70
15thBayit YehudiPeretz00-3.73.75
16thLivniLivni00-0.20.26
Right-Religious6060-2.962.966
Center-Left-Arab60602.957.154

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on four polls that were released from Feb 12-14 (1 Panel Project HaMidgam, 1 Direct Polls, 1 Maagar Mochot and 1 Midgam).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted this coming week on Wed Feb 20 & Thurs Feb 21 2019.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)