Panels conducted a poll of 1008 people with a 3.3% margin of error for Maariv that was published on Feb 22 2019. The poll was conducted Feb 21.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
29 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ (Litzman)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [06] Raam-Balad
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2.8% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.4% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.1% [–] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Additional Question:
Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?
48% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 16% Don’t know
I wonder if Likud is suffering in the polls right now because of the Otzma combina?
The Likud has constantly been polling close to their current number of mandates. To date, I think the parties losing most to Blue and White are Labor, Kulanu and the ghost of HaTnuah.
If these polls hold up Blue and White is going to be hard pressed to get a coalition going. Meretz is in tbe verge of not crossing the threshold and Labor looks spent.
Would be ironic if they score a huge victory only to watch Bibi form the next govt.
Could happen. Happened recently when Livni got more seats than Likud but couldn’t get a coalition.
I’ve been thinking the same all election season. 2009 redux. The wild card is a potential indictment for Bibi. Israeli elections are fascinating as always.
The Likud has constantly been polling close to their current number of mandates. To date, I think the parties losing most to Blue and White are Labor, Kulanu and the ghost of HaTnuah.
The mandates b&w are taking from Kulanu are Likud’s biggest headache right now I think.
Regardless of the outcome, I wonder if this election might serve as the catalyst for significant election reform. If the right wins, it will likely be in spite of B&W having a lead of more than just a couple seats (I.e. Likud would have to bleed enough votes to the smaller right wing parties to ensure they have a pass the threshold and have a clear majority). If B&W are able to form the next gov’t it will probably be due to Likud’s over consolidation of votes and to Bibi’s allies missing the threshold.
Even the winner may be less than pleased: B&W could only form a broad anti-Bibi gov’t possibly propped up with Arab support and unlikely to be all that effective or last. A Likud gov’t would probably have a narrow mandate of seats in the low 60s and be reliant upon the unpalatable Kahanists, and the always unpredictable Lieberman.
If at least some of the Arab MKs are willing to play, a Blue and White government that includes centrists, leftists, Arabs and some orthodox MKs, while seemingly a nightmare, could be a great way to gain credible consensus on where to move the peace process. Imagine if Gantz et al can get them to all agree on something reasonable, it would be potentially easier to get support for it from Israelis. The Palestinians, as always, are another matter. But if an Israeli government can show the world its serious about peace and that Palestinian leaders are a joke, maybe there’ll some renewed support for Israel. I know, a lot of qualifiers here…
The major flaw with this plan is the notion that Gantz can get them all to agree on something reasonable. It’s Israeli politics after all 🙂
LOL. I know. I’m not sure I believe it myself 🙂