Tag Archive: Jeremy Man Saltan


18 Days to Election – KnessetJeremy Poll Average: Likud 32.1, Yesh Atid 24.4, Smotrich 12.8, Gantz 11.9, Shas 8.1, UTJ 7; Netanyahu at 60

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 1 Comment
October 14, 2022

Yesh Atid makes largest gain of 0.9 and Likud takes biggest drop of 0.7 – narrowing the gap between the two bloc leaders to 7.7 seats.

Inside the Netanyahu camp, in addition to the Likud’s drop, Shas dropped slightly with a 0.1 loss. The Anti-Netanyahu Bloc continued to see fluctuation as Gantz made gains of 0.7 & Liberman went up 0.2. Both Labor & Meretz dropped 0.5 each. Another interesting development is that all of the major parties currently polling under the threshold went up slightly – Shaked, Balad, Zalika, Kara & Muchtar.

Netanyahu’s bloc stands at 60. Lapid’s bloc is at 60 with Hadash-Taal and 56 without them.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3232.132.8-0.7
Yesh Atid2424.423.50.9
Religious Zionist1312.812.80
National Unity1211.911.20.7
Shas88.18.2-0.1
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu665.80.2
Labor555.5-0.5
Meretz54.75.2-0.5
Hadash-Taal4440
Raam4440
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Bayit Yehudi2.82.32.20.1
Balad1.71.41.10.3
Zalika Party1.210.70.3
Kara Party0.80.70.60.1
Burning Youth0.60.50.40.1
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Netanyahu Bloc606060.8-0.8
Lapid w/H-T606059.20.8
Lapid w/o H-T565655.20.8
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7 Polls from this week

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 11 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

1% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Kantar conducted a poll of 649 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 11 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Everything else under 0.5%

Panels conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Radio 103 FM on October 12 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 712 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on October 12 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.7% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 537 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 13 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.72% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 802 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 13 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

26 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.7% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.3% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 802 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 14 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

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KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 33, Yesh Atid 24, Smotrich 13, Gantz 11, Shas 8; Gantz takes beating & Labor surprises

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — Leave a comment
October 9, 2022

This week Gantz’s party dropped 1.2 seats, this is the largest drop of any party on a week to week basis since the candidate lists were submitted. Yesh Atid also took a beating, dropping 0.6 since the last average. Yisrael Beitenu took a slight loss of 0.1. Not everything was negative for the anti-Netanyahu bloc as Labor gained 0.5 and Meretz went up 0.3.

Likud gained 0.7 and Smotrich’s party went up 0.4. Smotrich’s gain and Gantz’s loss has created a 2-seat advantage for Smotrich in the fight for third place. This is the best showing for the Netanyahu bloc in the average (60.8 to be exact).

Lapid’s bloc made gains the previous week when the agenda was focused on the possible disqualifications of Chikli, Silman, Balad and Raam. Netanyahu’s bloc made gains this past week when the agenda was on the proposed deal with Lebanon.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3332.832.10.7
Yesh Atid2423.524.1-0.6
Religious Zionist1312.812.40.4
National Unity1111.212.4-1.2
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu65.85.9-0.1
Labor55.550.5
Meretz55.24.90.3
Hadash-Taal4440
Raam4440
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Bayit Yehudi2.642.22.10.1
Balad1.321.11.60%-0.5
Zalika Party0.840.70.70%0
Kara Party0.720.60.90%-0.3
Burning Youth0.480.40.50%-0.1
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4 Polls from the week

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

06 [06] Meretz (Galon)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 715 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 591 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.97% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.47% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.34% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Panels conducted a poll of 705 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 7 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.9% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

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2 More Polls & Updated Knesset Jeremy Average

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment
October 6, 2022

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 600 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 2 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0.1% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Midgam conducted a poll of 501 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Army Radio on October 3 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.5% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.9% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

All other parties under 1%

Updated KnessetJeremy Average (7 Polls released from Sep 28-Oct 3)

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3232.133.2-1.1
Yesh Atid2424.123.80.3
National Unity1312.412.20.2
Religious Zionist1212.4120.4
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu65.95.60.3
Labor5550
Meretz54.94.80.1
Hadash-Taal444.2-0.2
Raam4440
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Bayit Yehudi2.42.11.98%1.02%
Balad1.71.60%1.64%-0.04%
Kara Party1.20.90%0.34%0.56%
Zalika Party10.70%0.94%-0.24%
Burning Youth0.60.50%0.70%-0.20%
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Comment

KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 32, Yesh Atid 24, Gantz 13, Smotrich 12, Shas 8; Netanyahu Bloc down to 59 as Likud records largest drop

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — Leave a comment
October 2, 2022

The KnessetJeremy Average shows Netanyahu’s bloc dropping from 60 to 59 seats. Likud took the largest drop of 0.8 of seat. Labor dropped for the second straight week, this week 0.2 compared to 0.4 last week. Hadash-Taal also dropped for the second straight week, with the same marks both weeks.

Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4 and Gantz’s party also gained 0.4 this week. Lapid gained 0.2 for the second consecutive week. Smotrich’s party also gained 0.2 following a 0.2 gain last week.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3232.433.2-0.8
Yesh Atid242423.80.2
National Unity1312.612.20.4
Religious Zionist1212.2120.2
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu665.60.4
Labor54.85-0.2
Meretz54.84.80
Hadash-Taal444.2-0.2
Raam4440
     
Netanyahu Bloc59   
Lapid w/H-T61   
Lapid w/o H-T57   
     
PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Bayit Yehudi2.42%1.98%0.02%
Balad1.71.48%1.64%-0.16%
Kara Party1.21.02%0.34%0.68%
Zalika Party10.86%0.94%-0.08%
Burning Youth0.60.52%0.70%-0.18%
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5 Weekend Polls: Netanyahu Bloc takes slight losses

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Midgam conducted a poll of 504 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Green Leaf

0.0% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

0.0% [–] Tzomet (Green)

Panels conducted a poll of 720 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on September 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 590 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on September 29 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Panels conducted a poll of 1433 people with a 2.6% margin of error that was published by Maariv on September 30 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.0% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Kantar conducted a poll of 652 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 1 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.8% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

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KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 33, Yesh Atid 24; Smotrich takes 3rd place & Labor drops

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 2 Comments
September 23, 2022

The KnessetJeremy Average shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal. Likud gained the most with 0.6%. Religious Zionist went up 0.2 to take 3rd place away from Gantz. Yesh Atid and Raam also gained 0.2%. Gantz’s National Unity lost 0.2% from the previous average and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu also lost 0.2% this week. Labor and Hadash-Taal both lost 0.4% each.

We are starting to see more and more polls that give Netanyahu’s bloc 61 or more seats. This trend should continue going into next week and it is likely the next average will already give the former Prime Minister a majority.

PartySeatsThis WeekLast WeekGap
Likud3333.232.60.6
Yesh Atid2423.823.60.2
Religious Zionist1212.2120.2
National Unity121212.2-0.2
Shas88.28.20
UTJ7770
Yisrael Beitenu65.65.8-0.2
Labor555.4-0.4
Meretz54.84.80
Raam44.240.2
Hadash-Taal444.4-0.4
  
Netanyahu Bloc60
Lapid w/H-T60
Lapid w/o H-T56
  
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Comment

5 Weekend Polls: Right makes slight gains

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Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on September 21 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.3% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.3% [–] Green Leaf

Midgam conducted a poll of 508 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 22 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

05 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.4% [–] Green Leaf

0.4% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

0.0% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 702 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 22 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.9% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 717 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on September 22 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.6% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.1% [–] Free & Democratic Israel (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 715 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on September 23 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.0% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.0% [–] Green Leaf

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KnessetJeremy Average + Contrast to 2021 Election

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — Leave a comment
September 19, 2022

The KnessetJeremy Average 6 weeks out from election day shows a 60-60 tie between the Netanyahu bloc and the Lapid bloc + Hadash-Taal.

If we look at the snapshot 6 weeks before the previous election, we will see that 8 of the 13 parties that would pass the threshold were already within a seat of their election results.

The five exceptions are New Hope and Yamina who would gradually drop, losing a good portion of support to Blue & White, and the Joint List who would lose support to Raam.

It is important to note that at this time in the previous election Raam only passed the electoral threshold in one of the four polls conducted after the submission of the lists. Blue & White passed in two of the four.

Over the coming weeks I will monitor the trend of the 2022 election and attempt to predict the direction of momentum in this election based on the 2021 data.

2022 Election PartyPoll Seat EstPoll Avg  
Likud3332.6  
Yesh Atid2423.6  
National Unity1212.2  
Religious Zionist1212  
Shas88.2  
UTJ77  
Yisrael Beitenu65.8  
Labor55.4  
Meretz54.8  
Hadash-Taal44.4  
Raam44  
     
Netanyahu Bloc60   
Lapid w/H-T60   
Lapid w/o H-T56   
     
2021 Election PartyPoll Seat EstPoll AvgGapElex Results
Likud3029.25030
Yesh Atid1716.75017
New Hope1514.25-96
Yamina1111-47
Joint List99-36
Shas87.7519
Yisrael Beitenu7707
UTJ76.7507
Labor 66.2517
Religious Zionist54.516
Meretz54.516
Blue & White0288
Raam0144
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