Tag Archive: jeremy knesset


Phase 1 Prediction Analysis

Yesterday, I posted the final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019.

Tonight, I am posting the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Prediction ModelChangeLast KnessetJeremy AVG
1stLikudNetanyahu30129
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz29-130
3rdLaborGabbai9-110
4thHadash-TaalOdeh7-18
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman6-17
6thUnited Right ListPeretz6-17
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett606
8thMeretzZandberg5-16
9thShasDeri5-16
10thZehutFeiglin5-16
11thKulanuKahlon4-15
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman440 (3)
13thRaam-BaladAbbas440 (3)
14thGesher27 Others000 (2)
Right-Religious Bloc66066
Center-Left-Arab Bloc54054

Few quick notes:

*For those who are wondering, I am expecting a 2-seat margin of error for the larger parties, a 1-seat margin of error for the smaller parties and two “exceptions”. I am expecting there to be a major swing where one party receives a majority of undecided voters last minute at the expense of another party that will lose a significant number of votes.

Phase 1 Recap:

#1 Likud: 30 seats:

How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu six elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach 30 seats. After a four-year term and an election season of ups and downs it appears that Netanyahu will be right back where he started – 30 seats and the largest party in Knesset.

Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach.

#2 Blue & White: 29 seats:

How we got here: After years of scenario polls the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu. Gantz hopes to succeed where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union failed.

Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.

Why they could get less: If Labor & Meretz voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.

#3 Labor: 9 Seats:

How we got here: Avi Gabbai has brought his party back from polls that had his party within the margin of error of not crossing the threshold to what is now expected to be the third largest party in the next Knesset.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#4 Hadash-Taal: 7 seats:

How we got here: Odeh & Tibi joined to form what is viewed as a more moderate political home for the non-Jewish population.

Why they could get more: If the turnout of the non-Jewish population is higher than expected.

Why they could get less: If Hadash-Taal voters vote for Raam-Balad because they fear that the latter might not pass the threshold.

#5-tie UTJ: 6 seats:

How we got here: Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. Eli Yishai’s endorsement was also helpful.

Why they could get more: If the general turnout is lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a seventh seat.

Why they could get less: If a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.

#5-tie URP: 6 seats:

How we got here: Bayit Yehudi, Tekuma & Otzma agreed to run a joint faction. Likud gave Bayit Yehudi an additional slot on their list to make up for the voters that can’t stomach voting for Otzma.

Why they could get more: If the last-minute push to get Otzma candidate Itamar Ben Gvir in the Knesset is successful.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#5-tie HaYamin HeHadash: 6 seats:

How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the election with a 50% religious – 50% secular slate.

Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#8-tie Meretz: 5 seats:

How we got here: Tamar Zandberg has made the case that Meretz is the only party in Israel that labels itself as a left-wing party and that she will only sit in a Gantz Government.

Why they could get more: If Meretz is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#8-tie Shas: 5 seats:

How we got here: Deri is the only coalition partner that has Netanyahu in his campaign posters. This time around most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote.

Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them best or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#8-tie Zehut: 5 seats:

How we got here: In 2015 then MK Moshe Feiglin fared poorly in the primary and was placed #36 on the Likud list. Likud activist Shai Malka lost his bid for the #30 young slot to Oren Hazan. They left to establish Zehut.

Why they could get more: Although the great majority of their support is from the right, they have the potential to be the surprise of this election because they are pulling voters from across the spectrum.

Why they could get less: If Feiglin makes a gaffe in the final days.

#11-tie Kulanu: 4 seats:

How we got here: Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon won 10 seats in the 2015 election. He was not able to fulfill most of his campaign promises and is now fighting for his political life.

Why they could get more: If soft-right voters that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.

Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#11-tie Yisrael Beitenu: 4 seats:

How we got here: Avigdor Liberman quit as Defense Minister and exited the government the day after the second-round of municipal elections. After a few weeks with a slim 61-59 majority Netanyahu decided to call early elections. Liberman is now fighting for his political life.

Why they could get more: If FSU immigrants that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.

Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#11-tie Raam-Balad: 4 seats:

How we got here: Following the success of The Joint List in the previous election Raam & Balad took a hard line in negotiations in efforts to maximize the number of slots they would have on the next joint slate. Taal left first and Hadash followed. Raam & Balad hold 8 of the 13 Joint List’s current seats but are now fighting for their political survival.

Why they could get more: If efforts to convince non-Jewish voters that voting for them is necessary or else, they will fall under the threshold.

Why they could get less: If turnout among Raam’s Bedouin sector is lower than expected.

#14 Gesher and others: 0 seats:

How we got here: Orly Levy broke off from Yisrael Beitenu. Early on it appeared like she could be the surprise of the election, but Blue & White stole her thunder.

Why they could get more: In a lower turnout situation Gesher has a decent shot at passing.

Why they could get less: You can’t get less than zero seats. Gesher didn’t pass the electoral threshold in 13 of the last 14 polls.

Right-Religious Bloc: 66

Likud 30 – UTJ 6 – URP 6 – HaYamin HeHadash 6 – Shas 5 – Zehut 5 – Kulanu 4 – Yisrael Beitenu 4

How we got here: Instead of six there are now eight parties in the bloc. For the most part Netanyahu’s core base has remained in Likud and the rest of the bloc have rearranged themselves. Zehut’s support from center-left voters have replaced the voters from the right-religious bloc that have moved to Blue & White.

Why they could get more: If HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut, Kulanu & Yisrael Beitenu pick up undecided voters from Blue & White.

Why they could get less: If Kahlon and/or Liberman fall under the threshold.

Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 54

Blue & White 29 – Labor 9 – Hadash-Taal 7 – Meretz 5 – Raam Balad 4

How we got here: In 2015 there were four parties, but in 2019 there are now five parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. Blue & White has gained some votes from the right-religious bloc, although they have lost many of the soft right votes they had six weeks ago.

Why they could get more: If Center-left Zehut voters decide to move back to their bloc.

Why they could get less: If Raam-Balad falls under the threshold.

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 858 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
28 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.8% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 17% Don’t know

Note: Below is link to the updated average. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/04/05/final-2019-knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-blue-white-29-9-likud-28-3-labor-9-6-hadash-taal-7-1-utj-6-5-right-reli/

KnessetJeremy Schedule:

Friday Afternoon: I posted the last Weekly Average which you can find below. Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Saturday Night: I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis. 

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

April-May-June: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government which I predict will take place on the first week of June.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday April 6 2019.

  • The original post went out Friday afternoon. This updated version includes the last poll which was aired on Friday night. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.
PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 14 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3029.7-0.830.511
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.3-0.428.729
3rdLaborGabbai109.70.69.118
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87-0.27.26
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.5-0.16.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.106.15
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.7-0.25.93
8thMeretzZandberg65.60.55.15
9thShasDeri65.3-0.15.47
10thZehutFeiglin65.30.25.10
11thKulanuKahlon54.60.54.110
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman030.52.55
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.902.97
14thOther27 Others00.3-0.50.88
Right-Religious Bloc6664.80.464.466
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.2-0.455.654

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 14 polls that were released from Friday afternoon March 30 to Friday evening April 5 (3 Midgam, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Teleseker & 0 Direct Polls).

Note #3: For a better understanding of how a Prime Minister is elected read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 13 of 14 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 10 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 10 polls and Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 69 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 51.

Note #7: Blue & White is the largest party in 9 of the 14 polls this week, Likud leads Blue & White in 4 polls, and one poll has them both tied.

Note #8: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Smith conducted a poll of 1097 people with a 3% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Note: This is an additional Smith poll that was published by Maariv this afternoon that was conducted after the Smith poll that was published this morning by Maariv’s sister paper – The Jerusalem Post.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by 103 FM Radido on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Smith conducted a poll of 1097 people with a 3% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Midgam conducted a poll of 1,023 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Yediot Achoronot on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
26 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 32% Gantz, 27% Don’t know

Who do you want to be Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 29% Don’t know

Who will be the Prime Minister?

58% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 21% Don’t know

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 1002 people with a 3.1% margin of error that was first published by Yisrael HaYom on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who will form the next government?

52% Netanyahu, 27% Gantz, 21% Don’t know

Who do you usually vote for?

28% Don’t know, 27% Center, 26% Right, 19% Left

How would you define the current election campaign?

69% Dirty, 14% Violent, 12% Fair, 5% Suitable

What is the main factor that influences your vote?

31% Party platform, 26% Party leader, 17% Other answers, 16% MK list, 6% My family, 4% Past voting pattern

Do you support a national unity government?

46% No, 31% Yes, 33% Don’t know

Level of confidence that voter will not change their vote:

77% Labor, 76% United Right List, 72% Blue & White, 71% UTJ, 70% Likud, 64% Yisrael Beitenu, 63% HaYamin HeHadash, 63% Shas, 60% Kulanu, 54% Zehut, 50% Balad-Raam, 48% Meretz, 47% Hadash-Taal

On the following issues, who do you think will do a better job?

Security: 40% Netanyahu, 40% Gantz, 20% Don’t know
Economy: 40% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 24% Don’t know
Social: 45% Gantz, 28% Don’t know, 27% Netanyahu

Midgam conducted a poll of 1290 people with a 2.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on April 4 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
26 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 18% Neither, 11% Don’t know

Who will be the next Prime Minister?

58% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 17% Don’t know, 4% Neither

Do you support a national unity government after the election?

37% Yes, 37% Don’t know, 26% No

Teleseker conducted a poll of 1295 people with a 2.5% margin of error that was published by Channel 11 on April 4 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.9% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.4% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
1.0% [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)

Under 1%:

00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions

Scenario Poll – If Lapid gives up rotation agreement:

Blue & White goes gains 3 seats.
Likud, Meretz & Zehut lose a seat each.

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

44% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 21% Don’t know