News Recap

• The political crisis continues, with Shas and UTJ still outside the government.
• Sep 2: A brief third special session plenum was held as Knesset silence ended.
• Sep 3: Most committees resumed work, including a hearing on the Haredi Draft Bill in the Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee.
• Sep 4: Eisenkot called on Gantz to drop out if he remains below the electoral threshold in the polls.

How It Played Out in the Polls

• Bennett remains the leading contender against Netanyahu in both Knesset seats and Prime Minister suitability.
• When running separately, Eisenkot, Cohen, and the Reservists generally act as spoilers, usually remaining in the single digits.
• Benny Gantz’s Blue & White party is at an all-time low for the 25th Knesset, reaching a maximum of four seats and failing to pass the electoral threshold in five of the 12 polls this week.
• Smotrich fails to pass the threshold in three polls, negatively affecting the Netanyahu bloc’s numbers.
• This week, both Lapid and Eisenkot fail to pass the threshold in one poll each.

What to Expect Next

• A fourth special session plenum is expected this week.
• Discussion on consolidation within the Bennett bloc may occur to avoid parties falling below the threshold.
• Increased scrutiny is expected on figures such as Cohen and Hendel (Reservists) regarding their positions on joining a potential Netanyahu government.

Polling Data

Maagar Mochot polls from earlier in the week are also in the previous post – https://knessetjeremy.com/2025/09/03/yossi-cohen-party-threatens-gantz-and-eisenkot-reshapes-coalition-math/)

Polls without Cohen/Reservists

Polls with Cohen/Reservists & Bennett-Lieberman-Eisenkot Scenario

Additional Questions (Additional Questions from earlier in the week are in the previous post – https://knessetjeremy.com/2025/09/03/yossi-cohen-party-threatens-gantz-and-eisenkot-reshapes-coalition-math/)

Bennett 2026 leads Netanyahu in all four scenarios. Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas are tied for third place in three of the four scenarios. The poll indicates that if Bennett and Eisenkot join forces, they would gain three additional seats, two from Lapid and one from Golan. Conversely, if Lapid and Eisenkot form a joint list, they would lose one seat to the coalition. A Yossi Cohen party would push both Eisenkot and Gantz below the electoral threshold, while giving the coalition an additional two seats.

The poll was commissioned by Channel 13 News and conducted under the direction of Prof. Yitzhak Katz from Maagar Mochot. It was carried out on September 2, 2025, with a total of 558 respondents and a margin of error of ±4.1% at a 95% confidence level.

Various Scenarios

Additional Questions

This week we had eight public polls released by four pollsters examining the future seat distribution.

Bennett Outperforms Lapid, Gantz, Eisenkot in Head-to-Head Against Netanyahu

A Channel 12 poll shows Bennett as the closest contender to Netanyahu, while Eisenkot, Lapid, and Yossi Cohen trail the Prime Minister by double digits. Channel 14 likewise ranks Bennett as the leading candidate against Netanyahu. In another key Channel 12 survey among opposition voters, Bennett receives the highest share of support when asked who should lead the challenge to Netanyahu. The scenario polls consistently show that while opposition parties struggle to draw voters from Netanyahu’s bloc, Bennett is the only candidate managing to do so.

The Fight to Pass the Electoral Threshold

In four of the eight polls, both Gantz and Smotrich fail to cross the electoral threshold; in only two polls do they both succeed. A Zman Israel survey shows that if Gantz drops out, two-thirds of his voters would shift to Bennett. Meanwhile, a Maariv poll finds that if Eisenkot runs with a separate party, the Netanyahu bloc gains one seat.

Housekeeping Notes:

• This post covers polls conducted between my last update on August 8 and August 26.
• I will post on Sunday covering the period from August 27 to August 31.
• I will then return to my regular schedule starting September 5.

News Recap

• The political crisis continues, with Shas and UTJ still outside the government.
• Aug 10: Leaders of Hadash, Ta’al, Ra’am, and Balad met again in an effort to reestablish a joint Arab Bloc list for the next elections.
• Aug 11: Independent MK Idan Roll, who left Yesh Atid in January, resigned his Knesset seat.
• Aug 13: A second special session plenum was held just before the Knesset silence. On the same day, the Likud Central Committee approved the merger with Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party.
• Aug 15: Reports emerged that Yoaz Hendel has begun registering his Miluim (Reservist) Party and has hired strategist Aron Shaviv.
• Aug 19: The government approved an additional 31 billion shekels for war expenses and cut future 2026 spending by 3.35%.
• Aug 23: Benny Gantz offered to bring his Blue & White party into the government if it would lead to a hostage release deal and an end to the Gaza war.
• Aug 26: Former Mossad head Yossi Cohen hinted in an interview that he plans to run in the 2026 elections.

How It Played Out In The Polls

• In most polls, Likud remains the largest party, while Bennett leads the largest bloc.
• In many surveys, Benny Gantz’s Blue & White party fails to pass the electoral threshold.
• Smotrich passes the threshold in all polls during this period, boosting the Netanyahu bloc’s numbers.
• This week the Bennett bloc performed best in scenarios where Eisenkot does not run alone and/or the Miluim Party crosses the threshold with five seats.

What to Expect Next

• Knesset Silence: Committee meetings will resume in the middle of next week, but the Knesset will remain in recess mode until the opening session on October 20, 2025.
• Election Year – 2026: If the coalition crisis remains unresolved, discussions may arise about moving up the elections from the scheduled date of October 27, 2026. The earliest possible date is in January, though a more likely scenario would be sometime between January and October.
• Gaza War & Haredi Draft: The Knesset and government are expected to continue focusing on the two dominant issues of 2025.

Seats and Blocs