Tag Archive: israel knesset


Panels conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Maariv on May 27 2019. The poll was conducted on May 26.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [35] Likud (Netanyahu)
34 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [06] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [04] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [00] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
00 [04] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [04] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
00 [00] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [00] Gesher (Orly Levy)

68 [65] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
52 [55] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

“The final results of the elections for the 21st Knesset will be published in Reshumot by Wednesday, April 17, 2019. By this date, the results may be revised due to the various control and examination processes that the committee conducts on the election results.” Source: Israeli Central Committtee Elections Website: https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=99999

Note: The official results will be certified by Central Election Committee Justice Meltzer on Wednesday. There are a number of polling stations that will be looked at again such as the ones in Bat Ayin, Gevaot Bar & Itamar. The magic number for HaYamin HeHadash to get in is 1,461 votes. I will post again on Wednesday an updated bracket of the final percentage points.

Vote PercentageKnesset SeatsOutgoing seatsPartyLeader/s
26.45%36[29] Likud (Netanyahu)
26.11%35[11] Blue & White(Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
5.99%8[07] Shas (Deri)
5.77%7[06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
4.49%6[05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
4.44%6[18]Labor (Gabbai)
4.02%5[05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
3.70%5[05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
3.63%4[05] Meretz (Zandberg)
3.54%4[10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
3.34%4[08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
3.22%0[03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
2.73%0[–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.73%0[01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
0.74%0[01] All other parties Oren Hazan, Gal Hirsch & Others
65[66] Current Right-Religious BlocNetanyahu
55[54] Current Center-Left-Arab BlocGantz

Meltzer Decision that was sent to the parties and published a few minutes before midnight between Thursday night and Friday morning. The translation to English is my own:

Re: Election results for the 21st Knesset

Further to my announcement today, at 19:30, I submit to you the results of the elections for the 21st Knesset, as prepared by the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset, as of this time. I would like to emphasize that these results are published after many control procedures carried out by the Central Elections Committee. However, these are not the official results to be published on April 17 2019, in accordance with Article 11 of the Basic Law: The Knesset, and shall be submitted to the President of the State. We reserve the right to examine the results in various other control tools that the committee operates, in order to reflect accurate results, in a manner that is beneficial and in accordance with the Knesset Elections Law [Consolidated Version], 1969, and therefore these results are still subject to changes and adjustments. Before these results were published, I was presented with a request from the United Torah Judaism faction, which was submitted to me in writing, as well as a telephone call from Minister Ayelet Shaked to the Legal Advisor to the Committee, Adv. Dan Livneh, who requested to delay this publication, since the results set to be published are not final. After examination of the request and the appeal I found that there is no room to accept it because of course this is the publication of “interim” results, which are still subject to change. And I believe that it has an inherent advantage, since it increases the transparency of the results to the public, and enables the public and the parties to examine the results of the publication of the results. I would like to mention that in previous election campaigns, the results of the elections were published in a similar format, which were later modified and adjusted – on the Election Committee website, and I was not given any clear reason to deviate from this practice. Therefore, soon after the letters are sent to members of the Central Elections Committee and to the lists of candidates, the results will be posted on the committee’s website.


There are three votes that determine the Israeli Prime Minister. The first, or as I call it “Phase 1”, takes place tomorrow’s Knesset election for Israel’s legislative branch. The second, or as I call it “Phase 2”, takes place when the parties that enter the Knesset nominate a Prime Minister candidate at the President’s Residence. The third, or as I call it “Phase 3”, takes place when the person who was handed the mandate to form a coalition government presents his new government for a confidence vote in the Knesset.

In my previous posts I provided my predictions for Phase 1 and Phase 2. In this piece I will present my predictions for Phase 3.

Option #1: 66 MK right-religious bloc led by Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu.

In this scenario all of the parties who nominated Netanyahu join his coalition.

Option #2: 61 MK right-religious bloc led by Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu.

In this scenario Zehut is left outside of the coalition. A variation of this option would see Netanyahu leaving out Shas, Kulanu or Yisrael Beitenu. Leaving Kahlon or Liberman out would provide a slightly more stable 62-58 coalition.

Option #3: 69 MK National Unity Government with 30 Likud, 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 4 Kulanu.

In this scenario Netanyahu either remains Prime Minister for the entire term or he agrees to a rotation where he will step down at some point during the term in favor of Gantz.

Option #4: 67 MK right-center-left coalition for Gantz: 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 6 UTJ, 5 Shas, 5 Meretz. 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu

In this scenario Gantz can leave Liberman out and still lead a 63-MK coalition.

Prediction:

Option 1 would provide Netanyahu with the most flexibility because none of the coalition partners would have the leverage of bringing down the government if they chose to leave the coalition. However, giving senior portfolios to seven parties could prove difficult.

Option 2 is a more likely scenario than Option 1 because Feiglin, Liberman or Kahlon could ask for too much. Netanyahu might prefer to leave one of the parties in his bloc outside to start off the term instead of giving in to too many parties in coalition demands. In Phase 3 of 2015 Netanyahu started off with a 61-59 coalition, leaving Liberman out of the government for about a year, before bringing him in later when it was necessary.

Option 3 might prove the most stable, especially if the Trump Peace Plan is released between Phase 2 and Phase 3. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t need to nominate Netanyahu for Prime Minister. Gantz can fulfill his campaign pledge not to nominate Netanyahu at the President’s Residence and “replace” the right-religious bloc parties who had nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2 in Phase 3 by signing a coalition agreement. Gantz can justify it to his base that he alone can provide the stability needed for an Israeli government that would agree to pursue the Trump Peace Plan. Netanyahu has signed coalition deals with parties that have not nominated him in Phase 2. The most recent cases are Ehud Barak’s Labor Party in 2009 and Tzipi Livni’s HaTnuna Party in 2013.

Option 4 is a big stretch. UTJ & Shas have ruled out sitting with Lapid. Liberman refuses to sit with Meretz or with Yaalon. Yaalon and Meretz refuse to sit with Liberman. There does not seem to be enough senior portfolios to hand off to Liberman or Kahlon. Gantz can’t offer either of them anything better than what they would probably receive from Netanyahu. Additionally, both of them consider themselves part of the right-religious bloc.

The two most likely Phase 3 options are Option 2 (or a variation of it) or Option 3. It is difficult to predict which option Netanyahu will choose and he might pursue both of them simultaneously. He has done that in the past. The most recent case was in 2016 when Netanyahu negotiated with Herzog’s Zionist Union and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in efforts to expand his government.

I can’t determine at this time which option, between option 2 and option 3, is more likely but I can determine that the most likely option is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is re-elected in Phase 3.

The polls open in less than seven hours.
To all of my Israeli followers – go vote!

Last night I posted my Phase 1 Prediction Analysis:

30 Likud
29 Blue & White
9 Labor
7 Hadash-Taal
6 UTJ
6 URP
6 HaYamin HeHadash
5 Meretz
5 Shas
5 Zehut
4 Kulanu
4 Yisrael Beitenu
4 Raam-Balad
0 Gesher & Others

Today I am posting my Phase 2 Prediction Analysis:

Based on the Phase 1 predictions these are the three most likely scenarios for Phase 2 based on the math. Remember, President Rivlin is on record that if a Prime Minister candidate receives 61 or more nominations in the President’s Residence that he will grant them the chance to form the next government.

#1 Path to a Netanyahu Coalition:

66 nominations for Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu, 4 Yisrael Beitenu

43 nominations for Gantz: 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 5 Meretz

11 Won’t nominate: 7 Hadash-Taal, 4 Raam-Balad 

#2 Path to a Gantz Coalition:

59 nominations for Gantz: 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 7 Hadash-Taal, 5 Meretz. 5 Zehut, 4 Kulanu

57 nominations for Netanyahu: 30 Likud, 6 UTJ, 6 URP, 6 HaYamin HeHadash, 5 Shas, 4 Yisrael Beitenu

4 Won’t nominate: 4 Raam-Balad 

#3 Path to a National Unity (Netanyahu-Gantz) Coalition:

69 nominations: 30 Likud, 29 Blue & White, 9 Labor, 4 Kulanu

The 3 possible paths:

Path #1 is the most likely. Likud, UTJ, URP, HaYamin HeHadash, Shas & Yisrael Beitenu have all made public commitments to endorse Netanyahu in Phase 2. Likud helped form the URP. UTJ & Shas have vowed to never sit a coalition with Lapid. Deri used Netanyahu in his campaign ads. Liberman went as far as going on record that he has no interest in reading the 57-page document released by the Attorney General that recommends an indictment of the Prime Minister pending a hearing. Liberman also refuses to sit with Yaalon. Kahlon has gone on record many times that he is willing to sit with Netanyahu until after the AG makes a decision after the hearing. Kahlon has enlisted former Likud Prime Minister Menachem Begin for his campaign ads and has added the words “right-wing” to the Kulanu ballot note. Netanyahu has 61 nominations even without Ex-Likud MK Feiglin’s Zehut party. The majority of Zehut’s voters are right wing and that makes it difficult for Feiglin not to recommend Netanyahu in Phase 2, although he has more room when it comes to Phase 3 which we will discuss tomorrow.

Path #2 is less likely. In this scenario Gantz doesn’t get 61 nominations and he relies on Tibi & Odeh nominating him. In this scenario Gantz would need to give both Kahlon and Feiglin senior portfolios as a prize for not nominating Netanyahu. Would Labor and Meretz agree to sit in a government where they do not receive top portfolios? Where does that leave Lapid, Yaalon and Ashkeanzi? There might not be enough to go around.

Path #3 is the least likely. If the two largest parties don’t have a majority of seats between them that would mean that they would need additional parties to agree to join a possible coalition like that before the official coalition negotiations even get started. Historically, Presidents have only pursued national unity governments when the two largest parties have a majority of the Knesset seats.

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tuesday at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election will be over. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each polling station will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website as the night goes on. Exit polls are closed at 8 PM and therefore will not include trends that affect the voting in the closing hours. The media focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted.

By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted. This becomes particularly interesting for the parties that are close to the electoral threshold.

Phase 2:

President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an unofficial capacity after the election results are clear. The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have almost always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack. The parties visit the President in order of party size. The law does not take the size of a party into account in terms of mandating who the President should select to form the next government. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with all of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. Rivlin will make an announcement after all of the nominations are in. The newly elected Knesset will be sworn in on April 30th. We will not have a new government at that date, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together the next government. As I have mentioned before I expect the new government to be sworn in during the first week of June.

Prediction:

Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority and the most likely candidate is Netanyahu. By law, in the event no one gets 61 seats, Rivlin can determine based on his own considerations “who has the best chance at forming a coalition”. This scenario seems unlikely based on the current projections.

During the unofficial negotiating phase Gantz will have a tough job giving Kahlon a competitive offer compared to Netanyahu. Gantz can’t negotiate with other Likud members as long as Netanyahu remains the leader of Likud. Feiglin is capable of just nominating himself. He might be capable of making the threat to follow through with a crazy idea like that, but most likely it would be an empty threat to milk a better deal out of Netanyahu. Netanyahu gets through Phase 2 without Feiglin based on my Phase 1 prediction.

Netanyahu, after he gets the mandate from Rivlin, is going to have problems forming coalition agreements with seven additional parties. It is possible Netanyahu doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that Gantz gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although this option is highly unlikely. A national unity government is possible in Phase 3 and I will address that in my post tomorrow. I do expect changes between Phase 2 and Phase 3.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

Phase 1 Prediction Analysis

Yesterday, I posted the final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019.

Tonight, I am posting the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderKnessetJeremy Prediction ModelChangeLast KnessetJeremy AVG
1stLikudNetanyahu30129
2ndBlue & WhiteGantz29-130
3rdLaborGabbai9-110
4thHadash-TaalOdeh7-18
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman6-17
6thUnited Right ListPeretz6-17
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett606
8thMeretzZandberg5-16
9thShasDeri5-16
10thZehutFeiglin5-16
11thKulanuKahlon4-15
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman440 (3)
13thRaam-BaladAbbas440 (3)
14thGesher27 Others000 (2)
Right-Religious Bloc66066
Center-Left-Arab Bloc54054

Few quick notes:

*For those who are wondering, I am expecting a 2-seat margin of error for the larger parties, a 1-seat margin of error for the smaller parties and two “exceptions”. I am expecting there to be a major swing where one party receives a majority of undecided voters last minute at the expense of another party that will lose a significant number of votes.

Phase 1 Recap:

#1 Likud: 30 seats:

How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu six elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach 30 seats. After a four-year term and an election season of ups and downs it appears that Netanyahu will be right back where he started – 30 seats and the largest party in Knesset.

Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach.

#2 Blue & White: 29 seats:

How we got here: After years of scenario polls the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu. Gantz hopes to succeed where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union failed.

Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.

Why they could get less: If Labor & Meretz voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.

#3 Labor: 9 Seats:

How we got here: Avi Gabbai has brought his party back from polls that had his party within the margin of error of not crossing the threshold to what is now expected to be the third largest party in the next Knesset.

Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#4 Hadash-Taal: 7 seats:

How we got here: Odeh & Tibi joined to form what is viewed as a more moderate political home for the non-Jewish population.

Why they could get more: If the turnout of the non-Jewish population is higher than expected.

Why they could get less: If Hadash-Taal voters vote for Raam-Balad because they fear that the latter might not pass the threshold.

#5-tie UTJ: 6 seats:

How we got here: Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. Eli Yishai’s endorsement was also helpful.

Why they could get more: If the general turnout is lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a seventh seat.

Why they could get less: If a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.

#5-tie URP: 6 seats:

How we got here: Bayit Yehudi, Tekuma & Otzma agreed to run a joint faction. Likud gave Bayit Yehudi an additional slot on their list to make up for the voters that can’t stomach voting for Otzma.

Why they could get more: If the last-minute push to get Otzma candidate Itamar Ben Gvir in the Knesset is successful.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#5-tie HaYamin HeHadash: 6 seats:

How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the election with a 50% religious – 50% secular slate.

Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#8-tie Meretz: 5 seats:

How we got here: Tamar Zandberg has made the case that Meretz is the only party in Israel that labels itself as a left-wing party and that she will only sit in a Gantz Government.

Why they could get more: If Meretz is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.

Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.

#8-tie Shas: 5 seats:

How we got here: Deri is the only coalition partner that has Netanyahu in his campaign posters. This time around most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote.

Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them best or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.

Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#8-tie Zehut: 5 seats:

How we got here: In 2015 then MK Moshe Feiglin fared poorly in the primary and was placed #36 on the Likud list. Likud activist Shai Malka lost his bid for the #30 young slot to Oren Hazan. They left to establish Zehut.

Why they could get more: Although the great majority of their support is from the right, they have the potential to be the surprise of this election because they are pulling voters from across the spectrum.

Why they could get less: If Feiglin makes a gaffe in the final days.

#11-tie Kulanu: 4 seats:

How we got here: Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon won 10 seats in the 2015 election. He was not able to fulfill most of his campaign promises and is now fighting for his political life.

Why they could get more: If soft-right voters that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.

Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#11-tie Yisrael Beitenu: 4 seats:

How we got here: Avigdor Liberman quit as Defense Minister and exited the government the day after the second-round of municipal elections. After a few weeks with a slim 61-59 majority Netanyahu decided to call early elections. Liberman is now fighting for his political life.

Why they could get more: If FSU immigrants that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.

Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.

#11-tie Raam-Balad: 4 seats:

How we got here: Following the success of The Joint List in the previous election Raam & Balad took a hard line in negotiations in efforts to maximize the number of slots they would have on the next joint slate. Taal left first and Hadash followed. Raam & Balad hold 8 of the 13 Joint List’s current seats but are now fighting for their political survival.

Why they could get more: If efforts to convince non-Jewish voters that voting for them is necessary or else, they will fall under the threshold.

Why they could get less: If turnout among Raam’s Bedouin sector is lower than expected.

#14 Gesher and others: 0 seats:

How we got here: Orly Levy broke off from Yisrael Beitenu. Early on it appeared like she could be the surprise of the election, but Blue & White stole her thunder.

Why they could get more: In a lower turnout situation Gesher has a decent shot at passing.

Why they could get less: You can’t get less than zero seats. Gesher didn’t pass the electoral threshold in 13 of the last 14 polls.

Right-Religious Bloc: 66

Likud 30 – UTJ 6 – URP 6 – HaYamin HeHadash 6 – Shas 5 – Zehut 5 – Kulanu 4 – Yisrael Beitenu 4

How we got here: Instead of six there are now eight parties in the bloc. For the most part Netanyahu’s core base has remained in Likud and the rest of the bloc have rearranged themselves. Zehut’s support from center-left voters have replaced the voters from the right-religious bloc that have moved to Blue & White.

Why they could get more: If HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut, Kulanu & Yisrael Beitenu pick up undecided voters from Blue & White.

Why they could get less: If Kahlon and/or Liberman fall under the threshold.

Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 54

Blue & White 29 – Labor 9 – Hadash-Taal 7 – Meretz 5 – Raam Balad 4

How we got here: In 2015 there were four parties, but in 2019 there are now five parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. Blue & White has gained some votes from the right-religious bloc, although they have lost many of the soft right votes they had six weeks ago.

Why they could get more: If Center-left Zehut voters decide to move back to their bloc.

Why they could get less: If Raam-Balad falls under the threshold.

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 858 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
28 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.8% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 17% Don’t know

Note: Below is link to the updated average. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/04/05/final-2019-knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-blue-white-29-9-likud-28-3-labor-9-6-hadash-taal-7-1-utj-6-5-right-reli/

KnessetJeremy Schedule:

Friday Afternoon: I posted the last Weekly Average which you can find below. Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Saturday Night: I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis. 

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

April-May-June: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government which I predict will take place on the first week of June.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday April 6 2019.

  • The original post went out Friday afternoon. This updated version includes the last poll which was aired on Friday night. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.
PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 14 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3029.7-0.830.511
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.3-0.428.729
3rdLaborGabbai109.70.69.118
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87-0.27.26
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.5-0.16.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.106.15
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.7-0.25.93
8thMeretzZandberg65.60.55.15
9thShasDeri65.3-0.15.47
10thZehutFeiglin65.30.25.10
11thKulanuKahlon54.60.54.110
12thYisrael BeitenuLiberman030.52.55
13thRaam-BaladAbbas02.902.97
14thOther27 Others00.3-0.50.88
Right-Religious Bloc6664.80.464.466
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5455.2-0.455.654

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 14 polls that were released from Friday afternoon March 30 to Friday evening April 5 (3 Midgam, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Teleseker & 0 Direct Polls).

Note #3: For a better understanding of how a Prime Minister is elected read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 13 of 14 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 10 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 10 polls and Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 69 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 51.

Note #7: Blue & White is the largest party in 9 of the 14 polls this week, Likud leads Blue & White in 4 polls, and one poll has them both tied.

Note #8: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Smith conducted a poll of 1097 people with a 3% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Note: This is an additional Smith poll that was published by Maariv this afternoon that was conducted after the Smith poll that was published this morning by Maariv’s sister paper – The Jerusalem Post.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by 103 FM Radido on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Smith conducted a poll of 1097 people with a 3% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B