Tag Archive: israel election


The final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019 is here:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/15/final-22nd-knesset-elections-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-likud-33-blue-white-32-joint-list-11-yamina-8-yisrael-beitenu-8-utj-8

The final Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/16/phase-1-knesset-election-prediction-analysis/

Last night I posted my Phase 1 Prediction Analysis:

38 Likud

35 Blue & White

11 Joint List

9 UTJ

9 Shas

7 Yamina

6 Yisrael Beitenu

5 Labor

0 (3) Democratic Union

0 (3) Otzma

  • The margin of error is 3 seats.

Today I am posting my Phase 2 Prediction Analysis:

Based on the Phase 1 predictions these are the three most likely scenarios for Phase 2 based on the math. Remember, President Rivlin is on record that if a Prime Minister candidate receives 61 or more nominations in the President’s Residence that he will grant them the chance to form the next government.

#1 Path to a Netanyahu Coalition:

63 nominations for Netanyahu: 38 Likud, 9 UTJ, 9 Shas, 7 Yamina

40 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 5 Labor

17 Won’t nominate: 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu

#2 Path to a Gantz Coalition:

61 nominations for Gantz: 35 Blue & White, 11 Joint List, 6 Yisrael Beitenu, 5 Labor, *4 Meretz

59 nominations for Netanyahu: *37 Likud, *8 UTJ, *8 Shas, *6 Yamina

#3 Path to a National Unity (Netanyahu-Gantz) Coalition:

73 nominations: 38 Likud, 35 Blue & White

The 3 possible paths:

Path #1 is the most likely based on my model and indeed the most ideal for the Prime Minister. In this scenario the four lists who have made public commitments to endorse Netanyahu in Phase 2 receive 61+ seats.

Path #2 is less likely. In this scenario has 61 nominations because Democratic Union passes the electoral threshold at the expense of four seats being lost by the right. Additionally, both Yisrael Beitenu & The Joint List nominate Gantz. This is a theoretical scenario that can be taken into account within the margin of error. In this scenario Gantz would need to have UTJ & Shas replace The Joint List in order to actually form a coalition. How would he juggle UTJ & Lapid, Lieberman & Yaalon, Shas & Meretz? Well, as I said this is a less likely scenario.

Path #3 is the least likely. Historically, Presidents have only pursued national unity governments when neither side has a pathway to 61.

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tuesday at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election will be over. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each polling station will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website as the night goes on. Exit polls are closed at 8 PM and therefore will not include trends that affect the voting in the closing hours. The media focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted.

By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted. This becomes particularly interesting for the parties that are close to the electoral threshold.

The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have almost always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack at forming a government. President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an unofficial capacity after the election results are clear. It is possible that Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer does not allow Rivlin to hold the consolations until the results are certified which is eight days after the election. The parties visit the President in order of party size. The law does not take the size of a party into account in terms of mandating who the President should select to form the next government. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with each of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. Rivlin will make an announcement after all of the nominations are in. When the newly elected Knesset will be sworn in we will not yet have a new government at that date, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together the next government.

Prediction:

Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority and the most likely candidate is Netanyahu. By law, in the event no one gets 61 seats, Rivlin can determine based on his own considerations “who has the best chance at forming a coalition”. This scenario seems unlikely based on the current projections. In each of the cases where this scenario did occur the President presented the mandate to whoever had the most seats even if that candidate failed to reach 61.

It is still possible that even if Netanyahu is nominated in Phase 2 that he doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that most likely means that Gantz gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although this option is highly unlikely in the case that Netanyahu gets a minimum of 61 recommendations.

If both Netanyahu and Gantz fail in Phase 2 are we headed to a third election? No. The law does grant a third candidate the chance to form a government if the first two candidates are not able to form a coalition. In this scenario any MK can present 61 MK signatures to the President and will be granted the chance to form a coalition. In this “wild west” scenario any MK can break with party lines and sign for whichever candidate he or she chooses. The President cannot choose the third candidate and he cannot force upon the sides to take upon themselves a national unity government. The rules to each scenario can be found in Basic Law: The Government

The rest of the KnessetJeremy schedule: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!

Smith conducted a poll of 650 people with a margin of error of 3.9% that was published by the Jerusalem Post & Maariv on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3.1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Note: An earlier Smith poll had been broadcast by Radio 103 FM. The only difference between the two polls is that Labor gained a seat at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu.

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 943 people with a margin of error of 3.2% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 33% Don’t know, 31% Gantz

If the Blue & White rotation is cancelled will that increase or decrease the chance you vote for them?

30% Increase, 9% Decrease

Who is showing up to vote at a level of 100% confidence?

87% Otzma, 84% Yamina, 79% Blue & White, 75% Labor, 73% Likud, 70% Yisrael Beitenu,

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Midgam conducted a poll of 605 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
08 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 31% Gantz, 19% Neither, 9% Don’t know

Which government do you prefer?

40% Secular Unity Government, 29% Right with Haredim, 16% None of the options, 8% Don’t know, 7% Center-left with the Haredim

Who do you think will be the Prime Minister?

56% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 16% Don’t know, 5% Someone else from Likud, 2% Lieberman

Was Netanyahu’s statement about annexing the Jordan Valley political?

61% Yes, 22% Don’t know, 17% No

Who do you believe more Netanyahu or the judicial establishment?

50% Judicial establishment, 34% Netanyahu, 16% Don’t know

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Shvakim Panorama conducted a poll of 3193 people with a margin of error of 1.8% that was published by Ynet on September 13 2019. The poll was conducted September 10-13.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
52 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

Friday: Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Channel 12 (Midgam/Gava) & Channel 13 (Panel Project HaMidgam/Fuchs) will both release their last polls later tonight. 4 pollsters have already released their last polls: 103 FM/Maariv (Smith), Knesset Channel (Panels/Lazar), Yisrael Hayom (Maagar Mochot/Katz) & Channel 11/Kan (Kantar/Teleseker).

Saturday Night: Tomorrow night I will post the final Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls. Additionally, I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

September-October-November: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Update: Additional polls by Maariv & Ynet have been added. My final prediction has been postponed to Sunday and will appear with the Phase 1 Analysis piece.

Smith conducted a poll of 603 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by 103 FM on September 12 2019. The poll was conducted September 11-12.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Note: 14% of voters are undecided

Kantar/Teleseker conducted a poll of 1360 people with a margin of error of 4.3% that was broadcast by Channel 11 on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
31 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
07 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 1003 people with a margin of error of 2.8% that was broadcast by I24 News & published by Yisrael Hayom on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
31 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

42% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz, 15% Don’t know, 4% Shaked, 3% Lieberman, 3% Peretz, 3% Barak, 2% Lapid

What are the chances you will vote on election day?

66% (100%), 21% (99%-76%), 4% (75%-51%), 9% (0%-50%)

Who will deal best with the following issues:

Security: 48% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 17% Don’t know
Economic: 41% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 25% Don’t know
Social: 39% Gantz, 33% Netanyahu, 28% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 539 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

60 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
51 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)