Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls (Updated September 14th)
| Place | Party | Leader | Seats | KnessetJeremy AVG | Change | 41-Poll-AVG | April Results |
| 1st | Likud | Netanyahu | 33 | 32.9 | 1.5 | 31.4 | 39 |
| 2nd | Blue & White | Gantz | 32 | 32 | 1.2 | 30.8 | 35 |
| 3rd | The Joint List | Odeh | 11 | 11.2 | 0.5 | 10.7 | 10 |
| 4th | Yamina | Shaked | 8 | 8.3 | -1.5 | 9.8 | 5 |
| 5th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 8 | 8.4 | -1.2 | 9.6 | 5 |
| 6th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 8 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 8 |
| 7th | Shas | Deri | 7 | 7 | -0.1 | 7.1 | 8 |
| 8th | Democratic Union | Horwitz | 5 | 5.1 | -1.4 | 6.5 | 4 |
| 9th | Labor | Peretz | 5 | 4.7 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 6 |
| 10th | Otzma/Other | Ben Gvir | 3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM | 59 | 58.6 | 1.8 | 56.8 | 60 | ||
| Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM | 53 | 53 | -0.6 | 53.6 | 55 | ||
| Pushing Unity Government | 8 | 8.4 | -1.2 | 9.6 | 5 |
Note #1: The KnessetJeremy Average is based on the last seven polls that were released by Midgam, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Kantar, Panel Project HaMdigam, Panels & Shvakim Panorama. Otzma does not pass the electoral threshold in Smith or Panels but passes in 5 of the 7 polls. In rare statistical circumstances parties can receive 3 seats so I have left the 3-seat result in the average which also allows me to maintain an 120-seat framework.
Note #2: The 41-Poll-Average is based on the last 41 polls that were conducted from July 30th until September 13 (last six weeks): 12 Midgam, 8 Smith, 5 Maagar Mochot, 5 Kantar/Teleseker, 6 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Panels & 1 Shvakim Panorama.
Note #3: 32 parties registered to participate in the September 17th Election. Zehut resigned and 31 parties remain.
Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Democratic Union, B) Blue and White & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & Yamina. D) Shas & UTJ. E) Otzma & Noam. The Joint List did not sign with any other list.
KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:
KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections
Final Note: I will post my final prediction based on my model tomorrow. As always the final prediction will be different than the final average because it takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 