Jeremy's Knesset Insider

After Netanyahu’s visit to the White House, Bennett 2026 remains at 29 seats, Likud drops to 18, and Lieberman finishes third with 11 seats in the latest Panels poll. Direct Polls, known as the outlier pollster and the only pollster to poll without Bennett 2026, saw Likud jump to 33 seats following the visit, and Lieberman jumped to second place with 18 seats. A Midgam poll from Sunday, before the trip, put Bennett 2026 ahead of Likud for the first time, with 23 seats to Likud’s 22. In addition, once again Smotrich only passes the election threshold under direct polls. Midgam puts Balad ahead of Smotrich.

If we take the Panels and Midgam polls and add them to the latest Kantar and Maagar Mochot polls, we get a clearer picture with the average. Bennett leads Likud by five and a half seats. In the race for third place, no fewer than seven parties are within three seats of each other. At the bottom of the table, Raam is slightly above the Hadash-Taal alliance, and Balad remains below the electoral threshold. Smotrich remains below the threshold.

Bennett 2026 takes five seats away from the coalition parties in the Panels poll compared to three seats in the Midgam poll. The overall result is that the coalition drops to an average of 47 seats. The Zionist opposition bloc with Bennett 2026 will receive 63 seats without the Arab parties.

It is worth noting that with the resignation of MK Almog Cohen to accept a position as Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, the coalition seat distribution was redistributed. Smotrich returns to seven seats and Ben Gvir drops back to six seats. Cohen is expected to run in the upcoming Likud primaries and not return to the Otzma list.

The Knesset returns from recess on May 4th.

Panels – Maariv Poll

Panels Poll / Party	Current Seats	W/Bennett	W/O Bennett	Difference
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	29	0	29
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	18	22	-4
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	11	18	-7
Democrats (Golan)	4	10	16	-6
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	6	10	10	0
Shas (Deri)	11	9	10	-1
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	15	-7
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	8	12	-4
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7	0
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	0
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	7	2.40%	2.80%	-0.40%
Balad	0	1.80%	2.40%	-0.60%

Midgam – Channel 12 Poll

Midgam Poll / Party	Current Seats	W/Bennett	W/O Bennett	Difference
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	23	0	23
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	22	24	-2
Democrats (Golan)	4	13	16	-3
Shas (Deri)	11	10	10	0
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	14	-5
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	8	14	-6
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	6	9	10	-1
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	14	-6
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	8	8	0
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	0
Balad02.50%2.50%-0.10%Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	7	2.40%	2.70%	-0.30%
Balad	0	2.50%	2.50%	-0.10%

KnessetJeremy Weekly Poll Avg

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	26	25.75
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	20.25
Democrats (Golan)	4	11	10.75
Shas (Deri)	11	10	9.75
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	9.25
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	6	9	9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	9	8.75
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	8
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.25
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5.25
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	7	0	2.56%
Balad	0	0	2.13%
Coalition Bloc	68	47
Zionist Opposition Bloc + Bennett 2026	42	63
Arab Opposition Parties	10	10

Bennett 2026 gets 29 seats in the latest panel poll conducted for Maariv. Likud gets 21, Democrats 10 and the rest of the field remains in single digits. The current coalition loses 8 seats if Bennett runs. Perhaps most significantly, Smotrich crosses the threshold if Bennett does not run.

Party	Current Seats	W/Bennett	W/O Bennett	Difference
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	29	0	29
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	24	-3
Democrats (Golan)	4	10	13	-3
Shas (Deri)	11	9	10	-1
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	16	-7
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	9	14	-5
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	8	9	-1
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	14	-6
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	6	1
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5	0
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	0
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	2.10%	4	-4
Balad	0	1.40%	1.90%	-0.50%

Direct Polls also released a poll. For some reason, Channel 14 is only broadcasting polls without Bennett 2026, despite the new party registration. Smith has not released a public poll all month. Midgam and Maagar Mochot have not released a poll this week. The current average is based on polls from the last few days by panels and Kantar, balanced by the latest polls from Midgam and Maagar Mochot.

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	26	25.5
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	21
Democrats (Golan)	4	11	10.5
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	10	9.75
Shas (Deri)	11	10	9.5
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	8.75
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	8	8.5
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	7.75
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.25
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5.5
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	0	2.50%
Balad	0	0	1.90%
Coalition Bloc	68	46
Zionist Opposition Bloc + Bennett 2026	42	64
Arab Opposition Parties	10	10

Radio Interview with KAN English’s Mark Weiss:

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	25	25
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	20.5
Democrats (Golan)	4	11	11
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	10	9.75
Shas (Deri)	11	10	9.5
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	9	8.75
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	8.75
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	8.25
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.25
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5.25
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	0	2.58%
Balad	0	0	1.97%
Coalition Bloc	68	47
Zionist Opposition Bloc + Bennett 2026	42	63
Arab Opposition Parties	10	10

Naftali Bennett is getting 27 seats in the first poll conducted and published following the registration of his new party, Bennett 2026. Likud is getting 20 seats in the poll of 600 people. Bennett got 24 seats and Likud 22 seats in a Kantar poll last week. Perhaps even more significantly, Bennett is grabbing five seats that would otherwise have gone to the parties in the current coalition.

Party	Current Seats	W/Bennett	W/O Bennett	Difference
Bennett 2026 (Bennett)	0	27	N/A	27
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	20	23	-3
Democrats (Golan)	4	10	14	-4
Shas (Deri)	11	10	10	0
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	15	-6
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	9	14	-5
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	9	10	-1
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	8	15	-7
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	8	-1
Raam (Abbas)	5	6	6	0
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	0
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	2.20%	2.40%	-0.20%
Balad	0	2.10%	2.10%	0

15 years ago today, March 31st, 2010, I launched KnessetJeremy.com

For the past 15 years, Knesset Jeremy has been the leading source of Israeli polling data in English. That’s because of your readership. I want to take this opportunity to thank you. I also want to thank you for encouraging me to come back and post more frequently. I will do my best to remain your Knesset Insider.

This Week…

This week Kantar, Direct Polls and Panels have released polls. Kantar, Panels and Midgam have also released additional questions and/or scenario polls. The current poll average is being updated to reflect their latest polls along with polls from last week by Midgam and Mager Makot, which are also reflected in the previous average. Most poll companies assume that Bennett will indeed run.

Biggest Takeaway: Smotrich under the threshold

Finance Minister Smotrich’s party does not pass the election threshold in any poll or scenario poll this week, with the exception of Direct Polls, which some experts have linked the development directly to the budget passage.

Approval Ratings:

Panels examined Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval rating:
66% Disapprove, 31% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Midgam, which did not survey mandates this week, surveyed the approval rating for the Netanyahu Government and received similar results:
70% Disapprove, 27% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Head-to-Head:

The Kantar poll has Netanyahu beating Gantz and narrowly losing to Eisenkot. Bennett leads Netanyahu by 10%.
41% Other answers, 33% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz
35% Eisenkot, 33% Other answers, 32% Netanyahu
41% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 28% Other answers

In the Midgam poll, Netanyahu defeated Golan, Gantz and Lapid. In addition, Netanyahu led Eisenkot by 5% and Bennett by 7%.
37% Netanyahu, 37% Neither, 21% Golan, 5% Don’t know
35% Neither, 34% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz, 5% Don’t know
35% Netanyahu, 33% Neither, 26% Lapid, 6% Don’t know
34% Netanyahu, 29% Eisenkot, 29% Neither, 8% Don’t know
38% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 24% Neither, 7% Don’t know

Scenario: Eisenkot replaces Gantz as head of the National Unity Party

The Kantar scenario poll showed no difference in the blocs if Eisenkot replaces Gantz. Eisenkot would win 16 seats compared to Gantz’s 9. With Eisenkot as leader – Bennett loses 3, Golan 2, Lieberman and Lapid lose 1 each.

This is another poll that shows that Eisenkot’s popularity remains within the opposition bloc. Another key factor is that in this poll Bennett leads Netanyahu 24-22 if he runs against Gantz, but Netanyahu leads Bennett 22-21 if Eisenkot runs. The poll was conducted on March 25, and surveyed 638 people with a margin of error of 4%.

A Tale of Two Polls

The latest Panels poll shows Naftali Bennett’s new party with a record 27 seats, compared to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which remains at 19 seats for the second week in a row. If Bennett does not run, then Liberman will receive 8 seats, Gantz 7, Lapid 4 and Golan 2 seats. In addition, Likud will receive 4 seats and one seat each for Shas and Otzma. Smotrich is approaching the threshold if Bennett doesn’t run. This is another poll that shows Bennett attracting support from the coalition parties.

Likud is still in the low 20s in other polling companies such as Kantar, Maagar Mochot and Midgam, where Bennett is generally receiving a more modest 24 seats.

On the other hand, Direct Polls have Likud at 31 seats this week. Although it is down from 34 seats in their previous poll, the company continues to present results that are completely different from the other companies. In their latest poll, Lieberman reaches 19 seats, compared to Gantz who drops to 7 seats and Lapid who drops to only 5 seats. Not only does Smotrich cross the threshold in this poll, but he also receives 5 seats.

The Average

Party	Current Seats	Projected Seats	KJ AVG	Previous
Naftali Bennett Party	0	24	24.3	24
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)	36	21	21	20.7
Democrats (Golan)	4	11	11	10
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	24	10	10.3	9.5
Shas (Deri)	11	10	9.5	9.2
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	6	9	8.8	9
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	7	9	8.5	8.5
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot)	8	9	8.5	8.2
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni)	7	7	7.3	7.2
Hadash-Taal	5	5	5	5.5
Raam (Abbas)	5	5	5	4.7
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	6	0	2.84%	4
Balad	0	0	1.90%	Under

What’s Next?

Following the merger with New Hope, and with the budget and judicial reform behind them, the coalition will end the winter session with today’s final plenary session and go into recess. I expect there will be more polls this weekend that should reflect public opinion following the winter session. The Knesset will return from recess for the summer session on May 4.