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6th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Likud 33, Blue & White 33, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 9, Shas 8

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 4 Comments

November 22, 2019

Midagm conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was conducted on November 21 2019 and broadcast by Channel 12 the same day.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
55 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

If the election was held today would you go out and vote?

60% Yes, 40% Other answers

Who is at fault for the failure of national unity government?

49% Netanyahu, 42% Lieberman, 25% Gantz, 10% Don’t know, 4% Someone else

Right voters: 55% Lieberman, 36% Gantz, 36% Netanyahu, 9% Don’t know, 2% Someone else
Center & Left: 73% Netanyahu, 25% Lieberman, 10% Gantz, 8% Don’t know, 5% Someone else

What should Netanyahu do after indictment?

46% Resign, 30% Stay on until verdict, 17% Recuse himself, 7% Don’t know

Right voters: 45% Stay on, 30% Resign, 18% Recuse, 7% Don’t know
Center & Left: 71% Resign, 17% Recuse, 7% Stay on, 5% Don’t know

Comment

5th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 33, Likud 31, Joint List 13, Shas 10, Yisrael Beitenu 9, UTJ 7

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 10 Comments

November 15, 2019

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was published by Yisrael HaYom on November 15 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
31 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
05 [07] Yamina (Shaked)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
53 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

If there was a straight up vote for Prime Minister who would you vote for?

43% Netanyahu, 41% Gantz, 16% Don’t know

What coalition do you prefer?

40% Unity Government, 28% Right Government, 17% Center-Left Government, 15% Don’t know

If there are elections will you vote?

64% For sure, 18% Low chance, 14% High chance, 4% Medium chance

What is your level of trust in following institutions?

Political Arena: 64% Low, 26% Average, 10% High
Press & Media: 53% Low, 27% Average, 20% High
State Prosecution: 44% Low, 28% Average, 28% High
Police: 42% Low, 36% Average, 22% High
Court System: 38% High, 37% Low, 25% Average
Supreme Court: 44% High, 35% Low, 21% Average

Over the last year has your trust in state institutions gone up or down?

54% Down, 34% No change, 10% In some cases went up and in some cases went down, 2% Up

Have the leaks and publications about Netanyahu’s investigations influenced your position on him?

49% No, 25% Influenced for the worse, 16% Influenced for the better, 10% Don’t know

Comment

4th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 35, Likud 34, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 9, Shas 6, UTJ 6

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 14 Comments

November 10, 2019

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 704 people with a margin of error of 4.1% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on November 10 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [09] Shas (Deri)
06 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [04] Bayit Yehudi-National Union (R.Petetz)
04 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
09 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Questions:

If there was a straight up vote for Prime Minister who would you vote for?

40% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 23% Don’t know

Who is to blame if there is another election?

41% Netanyahu, 31% Lieberman, 15% Don’t know, 7% Gantz, 6% None

Comment

3rd Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 33, Joint List 12, Shas 9, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Center-Left Bloc at 58

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 11 Comments

October 31, 2019

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 507 people with a margin of error of 4.1% that was broadcast by 103 FM Radio on October 31 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
12 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
06 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [07] Yamina (Bennett, Shaked & R.Petetz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
54 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
Yamina has split but for some reason the pollster chose to poll them together.

Additional Questions:

Who is at fault if we go to another election?

52% Netanyahu, 21% Lieberman, 19% Lapid, 8% Gantz

Comment

2nd Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Blocs tied at 56

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 4 Comments

October 22, 2019

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 706 people with a margin of error of 4.1% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 22 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
05 [04] Bayit Yehudi-National Union (R.Petetz & Smotrich)
04 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
04 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett & Shaked)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Additional Question:

Who is at fault if we go to another election?

37% Netanyahu, 30% Both, 21% Gantz, 8% Neither, 4% Don’t know

Comment

1st Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 33, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Shas 9; Scenario Poll: Blue & White 33, Likud led by Saar 26, Joint List 13, Yamina 12

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 7 Comments

October 7, 2019

Midgam conducted a poll of 513 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was published by Walla on October 7 2019. It was conducted between October 3-6.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
33 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
09 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.

Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
26 [32] Likud (Saar)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
12 [07] Yamina (Shaked)
10 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz)
05 [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)

Additional Questions:

Do you support a national unity government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu?

50% No, 42% Yes, 8% Don’t know

Right voters: 54% Yes, 41% No, 5% Don’t know
Center & Left: 68% No, 26% Yes, 6% Don’t know

Who should lead the Likud?

35% Netanyahu, 29% Saar, 20% Don’t know, 8% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz

Right voters: 54% Netanyahu, 24% Saar, 9% Don’t know, 5% Other, 5% Edelstein, 2% Erdan, 1% Katz
Center & Left: 41% Saar, 29% Don’t know, 13% Other, 8% Netanyahu, 6% Edelstein, 2% Katz, 1% Erdan

Comment

Phase 2 Update

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 5 Comments

September 29, 2019

On September 25th, President Rivlin chose Prime Minister Netanyahu as the first candidate to form Israel’s next government. Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised President Rivlin that he will not try to activate Section 12 of “Basic: Law The Government” which triggered the September Knesset Election.

The first candidate receives 28 days to form a government. The first candidate may ask for an extension and the President may grant him up to 14 days. Additionally, the President can choose to break up the 14 days into separate extensions and force the candidate to keep returning for additional extensions. In any event the first candidate cannot hold on to the mandate for more than 42 days.

The first candidate can choose at any point to hand back the mandate to the President early.

If the first candidate fails or chooses to return the mandate early that leaves the President with three options that he has up to three days to consider:

A) He can grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first round of consultations.

B) He can conduct another round of consultations in the hopes that an additional candidate will emerge in addition to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. The first candidate cannot be chosen as the second candidate.

In the event the the second candidate that is appointed in A or B fails to form a government the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset.

C) He can choose to inform the Knesset Speaker that there is no second candidate and the mandate is then transferred from the President to the Knesset .

The Knesset then has two options:

A) For the next 21 days the Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President by submitting 61 MKs signatures. Any MK can participate.

The President will have two days to process the request.

B) If the Knesset fails to put forth their own candidate that will automatically trigger a snap-election.

The third candidate has 14 days to inform the Speaker & President he has formed a government. The Speaker can delay the vote for an additional seven days if necessary.

In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered.

If all three candidates (or two if the President forfeits his ability to choose a second candidate himself) fail to form a government so a snap-election would take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Section 43 of “Basic Law: The Government” allows the Knesset in certain circumstances, within five days of the Knesset candidate failing to form a government, to push off the election up to 100 days if necessary.

Comment

Phase 2 (President Residence) Results: Netanyahu 55, Gantz 54, Neither 11

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments

September 23, 2019

Five lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”. Six lists arrived today for “Day 2”.

Yesterday, on Day 1, Netanyahu was nominated by Likud (31) & Shas (9). Gantz was nominated by Blue & White (33) and The Joint List (13). Yisrael Beitenu (8) chose not to nominate anyone. After Yisrael Beitenu’s decision not to nominate the Balad Party (3) that is part of The Joint List chose to inform the President that they wish to withdraw their nomination. Rivlin accepted their request.

At the end of Day 1, Gantz had 43 nominations to Netanyahu’s 40 nominations with 11 MKs choosing not to nominate anyone.

Today, on Day 2, Netanyahu was nominated by UTJ (8) & Yamina (7). Gantz was nominated by Labor-Gesher (6) & Democratic Union (5).

At the end of Day 2, Netanyahu has 55 nominations to Gantz’s 54 nominations with 11 MKs choosing not to nominate anyone.

For the first time since Israel abolished the direct PM system there is no candidate with 61 nominations. The President will have to choose who will receive the first mandate to form a new government between the two Prime Ministerial candidates.

President Rivlin has invited both Netanyahu & Gantz to a meeting tonight. Both accepted.

Comment

Phase 1 (Knesset Elections) Final Results: Blue & White 33, Likud 31, Joint List 13, Shas 9

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 6 Comments

September 20, 2019

This post includes two tables. The final election results and the Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting).

There are still 14 ballot boxes that have various issues with them but the combined total is not enough to change the seat allocation. Therefore these are the final results but not the official results. The official results must be certified by September 25th so the vote total could change slightly before the results are certified.

President Rivlin received permission from Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. The Phase 2 consultations will be conducted Sunday and Monday. The President is expected to grant the mandate to form the next government on Monday.

Assuming neither candidate receives 61 nominations the President will still need to choose a candidate to form a government. It will be at his discretion in the event neither candidate reaches 61 nominations, but he must choose one of them. If the first candidate fails so the mandate will be returned to the President. The President can either conduct another round of consultations or grant the mandate to the alternative candidate from the first consultations. If the second candidate the President chooses fails to form a government so the mandate will be transferred from the President to the Knesset. The Knesset may put forth a third candidate to the President for his approval by submitting 61 MKs signatures. In the event the third candidate fails to form a government a snap-election will automatically be triggered and take place 84-90 days later on a Tuesday.

Table 1: Final Results

Eligible Voters	Total Voters	Turnout	Kosher Votes	Disqualified Votes
6,394,030	4,458,167	69.72%	4,430,566	27,601
Party	Leader	Seats	Percentage	Votes
Blue & White	Gantz	33	25.93%	1,148,700
Likud	Netanyahu	31	25.09%	1,111,535
Joint List	Odeh	13	10.62%	470,611
Shas	Deri	9	7.44%	329,834
Yisrael Beitenu	Lieberman	8	6.99%	309,688
UTJ	Litzmna	8	6.06%	268,688
Yamina	Shaked	7	5.88%	260,339
Labor	Peretz	6	4.80%	212,529
Democratic Union	Horowitz	5	4.34%	192,261
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold
Otzma	Ben Gvir	0	1.88%	83,266
Tzomet	Green	0	0.33%	14,817
Other Parties	Various	0	Each under 0.15%	Each under 6,000

Table 2: Absentee Votes/Double Envelopes

Total Voters	Kosher Votes	Disqualified Votes
279,412	277,212	2,200
Party	Percentage	Votes
Blue & White	30.18%	83,670
Likud	27.81%	77,096
Yamina	8.85%	24,543
Shas	6.29%	17,434
Yisrael Beitenu	5.01%	13,879
Democratic Union	4.95%	13,711
Labor	4.72%	13,074
Joint List	4.28%	11,858
UTJ	4.17%	11,559
Otzma	2.35%	6,520
Other Parties	Each under 0.4%	Each under 1,100

Comment

2019 Knesset Election Results (before Double Envelopes/Absentee Voting): Blue & White 33, Likud 32, Joint List 12, Shas 9, UTJ 8, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Blocs tied at 56

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 23 Comments

September 19, 2019

This post includes three tables. The election results, the exit poll averages and the accuracy of the exit polls.

The final results including the double envelopes/absentee ballots are expected either tomorrow night or Friday morning. The results must be certified eight days after the election – September 25th.

President Rivlin can ask Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Meltzer permission to start the Phase 2 consultations before the Phase 1 results are certified. It is at Meltzer’s discretion to agree or not. In the April election Meltzer allowed Rivlin to carry out his consultations before the results were certified.

Table 1: Final Results before Double Envelopes (Absentee Voting)

Party	Leader	Seats	Percentage	Votes
Blue & White	Gantz	33	25.66%	1,035,624
Likud	Netanyahu	32	25.03%	1,010,237
Joint List	Odeh	12	10.72%	432,741
Shas	Deri	9	7.57%	305,712
Yisrael Beitenu	Lieberman	8	7.12%	287,305
UTJ	Litzmna	8	6.23%	251,645
Yamina	Shaked	7	5.72%	230,907
Labor	Peretz	6	4.81%	194,211
Democratic Union	Horowitz	5	4.30%	173,374
Under the 3.25% Electoral Threshold (Under 6K not listed)
Otzma	Ben Gvir	0	1.87%	75,301
Tzomet	Green	0	0.34%	13,622

Table 2: Each Exit Poll & Exit Poll AVG

Party	Exit Poll AVG	Channel 11	Channel 13	Channel 12
Blue & White	33	32	33	34
Likud	32	32	31	33
Joint List	12	12	13	11
Shas	8.7	9	9	8
Yisrael Beitenu	8.7	10	8	8
UTJ	8	8	8	8
Yamina	7	7	6	8
Labor	5.3	5	6	5
Democratic Union	5.3	5	6	5

Table 3: Accuracy of Exit Poll AVG

Party	Exit Poll AVG	Current Results	Difference
Blue & White	33	33	0
Likud	32	32	0
Joint List	12	12	0
Shas	8.7	9	-0.3
Yisrael Beitenu	8.7	8	-0.7
UTJ	8	8	0
Yamina	7	7	0
Labor	5.3	6	-0.7
Democratic Union	5.3	5	-0.07

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Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Category: Knesset

6th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Likud 33, Blue & White 33, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 9, Shas 8

5th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 33, Likud 31, Joint List 13, Shas 10, Yisrael Beitenu 9, UTJ 7

4th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 35, Likud 34, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 9, Shas 6, UTJ 6

3rd Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 33, Joint List 12, Shas 9, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Center-Left Bloc at 58

2nd Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Blocs tied at 56

1st Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 33, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Shas 9; Scenario Poll: Blue & White 33, Likud led by Saar 26, Joint List 13, Yamina 12

Phase 2 Update

Phase 2 (President Residence) Results: Netanyahu 55, Gantz 54, Neither 11

Phase 1 (Knesset Elections) Final Results: Blue & White 33, Likud 31, Joint List 13, Shas 9

2019 Knesset Election Results (before Double Envelopes/Absentee Voting): Blue & White 33, Likud 32, Joint List 12, Shas 9, UTJ 8, Yisrael Beitenu 8; Blocs tied at 56

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