Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Maagar Mochot conducted an internal scenario poll series for religious Zionist Rabbis

Scenario #1: BY & NU run alone.

2-3 seats Bayit Yehudi
1-2 seats National Union-Tekuma

(Neither passes the threshold)

Scenario #2: By & NU run together

4 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma

Scenario #3: BY+NU+Otzma run together

8 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma+Otzma

Scenario #4: NU+Otzma+Yachad

8-9 seats National Union-Tekuma+Oztma+Yachad

Scenario #5: BY+NU+Yachad+Zehut+Otzma

12 seats Bayit Yehudi+National Union-Tekuma+Otzma+Yachad+Zehut

Key:

Bayit Yehudi is led by Rabbi Rafi Peretz.
Tekuma is led by Betzalel Smotrich.
Otzma is led by Michael Ben Ari.
Yachad is led by Eli Yishai.
Zehut is led by Moshe Feiglin.

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 517 people with a 4.3% margin of error for 103 FM radio that was broadcast on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted on Feb 7 2019.

In a post-Netanyahu world who should lead the Likud?

31% Don’t know, 25% Edelstein, 20% Saar, 16% Y. Katz, 4% Erdan, 4% Regev

Among Likud voters: 30% Saar, 21% Y. Katz, 20% Don’t know, 19% Edelstein, 5% Erdan, 5% Regev

Note: The seat results are identical to the seat distribution Maagar Mochot produced for Yisrael HaYom on the same day. I have updated that poll to reflect the numbers without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.
https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/02/09/yisrael-hayom-poll-likud-29-israel-resilience-17-yesh-atid-11-joint-list-9-utj-7/

Midgam conducted a poll with a 4.4% margin of error for the Labor Party that was leaked on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
19 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

1.1% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.0% [06] Livni Party
Under 1% [–] Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Otzma (Ben Ari), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 601 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Feb 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under electoral threshold:

2.2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.8% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
1.2% [06] Livni Party
under 1% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari), Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll: Labor + Meretz

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
14 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
10 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 18% Dpm’t know

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 9th 2018.

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on ten polls that were conducted from Feb 1-9 (2 Panels, 2 Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Direct Polls, 2 Maagar Mochot, 1 Midgam and 1 Smith polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists will be submitted on Feb 20-21 2019.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)

Miskar conducted a poll that was published by Srugim on Feb 9 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
20 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [12] The Joint (Arab) List

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others

49 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
38 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
33 [–] seats are thrown away

Scenario Poll: Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma + Otzma + Yachad

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
24 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich) + Otzma + Yachad
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
00 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
00 [07] Shas (Deri)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–-] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) & others

53 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
43 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz
24 [–] seats are thrown away

Note: I will not include this poll in my average

Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 12 that was broadcast on Feb 9 2019. The poll was conducted on Feb 7 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
22 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.7% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.5% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
2.1% [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.4% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
1.0% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
0.8% [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll #1: Gantz + Lapid + Ashkenazi

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
32 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Taal (Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
2.1% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.3% [–] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.4% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
1.0% [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari)
0.8% [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Question:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

37% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz, 9% Lapid, 9% Don’t know, 8% None of them, 7% Saar, 3% Gabbai, 1% Y. Katz

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 706 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Yisrael HaYom & I24 News that was published on Feb 8 2019. The poll was conducted Feb 6-7 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
21 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
14 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
11 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

57 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
63 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
17 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
11 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:

03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
03 [01] Taal (Tibi)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
02 [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
02 [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
02 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
02 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
01 [06] Livni Party
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.

47+17=64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
51+05=56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Note: I will update the results later to reflect the seat chart without the parties that didn’t cross the threshold.

Scenario Poll #1: Gantz + Yaalon + Lapid + AshkenaziDistribution of seats without electoral threshold:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

42 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
35 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
29 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)

Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:

03 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
03 [03] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz)
03 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
03 [01] Taal (Tibi)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
03 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
01 [06] Livni Party
01 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
01 [02] Tekuma (Smotrich)
01 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.

50+11=61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
49+10=59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Scenario Poll #2: Gantz + Yaalon + Lapid + Ashkenazi, Labor + Meretz and Bayit Yehudi + Tekuma

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
34 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
12 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
09 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz

Distribution of seats without electoral threshold:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [11] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon) + Yesh Atid (Lapid) + Ashkenazi
10 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
08 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under the 3.25% electoral threshold:

03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [01] Taal (Tibi)
03 [–-] Otzma (Marzel)
02 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
02 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
02 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
01 [–-] Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others are all under 3.25% threshold.
00 [06] Livni Party

52+12=64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
52+04=56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Where do you place Israel Resilience on the political map?

55% Center, 28% Left, 17% Right

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 23% Other answers, 22% Gantz, 10% Lapid, 5% Bennett, 2% Gabbai, 2% Liberman

Who should lead the center-left bloc?

37% No one, 32% Gantz, 15% Lapid, 7% Livni, 5% Barak, 4% Zandberg

Telekser conducted a scenario poll that was published on Yediot Achronot journalist Yuval Karmi’s twitter on Feb 8 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud (Netanyahu)
23 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Telem (Yaalon)
12 [23] Labor (Gabbai) + Meretz (Zandberg)
09 [11] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [12] The Joint (Arab) List
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
05 [01] Taal (Tibi)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Peretz) + Tekuma (Smotrich)
00 [06] Livni Party
00 [–-] Otzma (Ben Ari), Zehut (Feiglin), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Green Leaf, Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom)

59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B