Category: Knesset


Channel 13 Poll: Likud 32, Blue & White 32, Joint List 12, Yamina 9, Yisrael Beitenu 9

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September 14, 2019

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 943 people with a margin of error of 3.2% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 33% Don’t know, 31% Gantz

If the Blue & White rotation is cancelled will that increase or decrease the chance you vote for them?

30% Increase, 9% Decrease

Who is showing up to vote at a level of 100% confidence?

87% Otzma, 84% Yamina, 79% Blue & White, 75% Labor, 73% Likud, 70% Yisrael Beitenu,

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

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Channel 12 Poll: Likud 32, Blue & White 32, Joint List 10, Yamina 8, UTJ 8, Yisrael Beitenu 8

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Midgam conducted a poll of 605 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 13 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
08 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
08 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 31% Gantz, 19% Neither, 9% Don’t know

Which government do you prefer?

40% Secular Unity Government, 29% Right with Haredim, 16% None of the options, 8% Don’t know, 7% Center-left with the Haredim

Who do you think will be the Prime Minister?

56% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 16% Don’t know, 5% Someone else from Likud, 2% Lieberman

Was Netanyahu’s statement about annexing the Jordan Valley political?

61% Yes, 22% Don’t know, 17% No

Who do you believe more Netanyahu or the judicial establishment?

50% Judicial establishment, 34% Netanyahu, 16% Don’t know

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

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Shvakim Panorama Poll: Likud 33, Blue & White 32, Joint List 11, Yisrael Beitenu 9, UTJ 8

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Shvakim Panorama conducted a poll of 3193 people with a margin of error of 1.8% that was published by Ynet on September 13 2019. The poll was conducted September 10-13.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
52 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections:

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/09/13/knessetjeremy-schedule-for-22nd-knesset-elections/

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KnessetJeremy Schedule for 22nd Knesset Elections

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 9 Comments
September 13, 2019

Friday: Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Channel 12 (Midgam/Gava) & Channel 13 (Panel Project HaMidgam/Fuchs) will both release their last polls later tonight. 4 pollsters have already released their last polls: 103 FM/Maariv (Smith), Knesset Channel (Panels/Lazar), Yisrael Hayom (Maagar Mochot/Katz) & Channel 11/Kan (Kantar/Teleseker).

Saturday Night: Tomorrow night I will post the final Knesset Jeremy’s Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls. Additionally, I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

September-October-November: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Update: Additional polls by Maariv & Ynet have been added. My final prediction has been postponed to Sunday and will appear with the Phase 1 Analysis piece.

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103 FM Poll: Likud 33, Blue & White 32, Joint List 12, Yamina 9, Yisrael Beitenu 9

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Smith conducted a poll of 603 people with a margin of error of 4% that was broadcast by 103 FM on September 12 2019. The poll was conducted September 11-12.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Note: 14% of voters are undecided

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Channel 11 Poll: Blue & White 33, Likud 31, Joint List 11, Yamina 9, UTJ 8

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

Kantar/Teleseker conducted a poll of 1360 people with a margin of error of 4.3% that was broadcast by Channel 11 on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
31 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

59 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
07 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

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Yisrael Hayom/I24 News Poll: Likud 33, Blue & White 31, Joint List 12, Yisrael Beitenu 9

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September 12, 2019

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 1003 people with a margin of error of 2.8% that was broadcast by I24 News & published by Yisrael Hayom on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
31 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
12 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

42% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz, 15% Don’t know, 4% Shaked, 3% Lieberman, 3% Peretz, 3% Barak, 2% Lapid

What are the chances you will vote on election day?

66% (100%), 21% (99%-76%), 4% (75%-51%), 9% (0%-50%)

Who will deal best with the following issues:

Security: 48% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 17% Don’t know
Economic: 41% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 25% Don’t know
Social: 39% Gantz, 33% Netanyahu, 28% Don’t know

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Knesset Channel Poll: Likud 36, Blue & White 32, Joint List 10, Yamina 9, Yisrael Beitenu 9

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments

Panels conducted a poll of 539 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 12 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
05 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.9% [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

60 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
51 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

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Channel 13 Poll: Blue & White 32, Likud 31, Joint List 11, Yamina 9, Yisrael Beitenu 9

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments
September 11, 2019

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 831 people with a margin of error of 3.9% that was broadcast by Channel 13 on September 10 2019. The poll was conducted on September 10.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
31 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
11 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
06 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
05 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

57 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Question:

Will cameras influence the behavior of voters on election day?

51% Yes, 35% No, 14% Don’t know

Jews: 52% Yes, 32% No, 16% Don’t know
Non-Jews: 51% No, 43% Yes, 6% Don’t know

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Channel 12 Poll: Blue & White 32, Likud 31, Yamina 9, Joint List 9, Yisrael Beitenu 9

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Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a margin of error of 4.4% that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 10 2019. The poll was conducted on September 9-10.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [35] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
31 [38] Likud (Netanyahu & Kahlon)
09 [10] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh, Tibi & Abbas)
09 [06] Yamina (Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich & Bennett)
09 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
06 [04] Democratic Union (Horowitz, Shafir & Barak)
04 [–-] Otzma (Ben Gvir)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

The other parties are all under 1%

Phase 2 Recommendations:

58 [60] Right-Religious Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Gantz for PM)
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Have ruled out nominating Netanyahu for PM)
09 [05] Pushing Unity Government (Lieberman)

Additional Question:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 32% Gantz, 18% Don’t know

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