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Channel 13 Poll (Last Poll before Election aired last night): Likud 28, Blue & White 28, Labor 11, URL 7, 4 tied at 6; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

April 6, 2019

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 858 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
28 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.8% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 37% Gantz, 17% Don’t know

Note: Below is link to the updated average. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.

https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/04/05/final-2019-knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-knesset-jeremys-weekly-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls-blue-white-29-9-likud-28-3-labor-9-6-hadash-taal-7-1-utj-6-5-right-reli/

Comment

Final 2019 Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls: Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: Blue & White 29.7, Likud 28.3, Labor 9.7, Hadash-Taal 7, UTJ 6.5; Right-Religious Bloc 64.8; (Final Prediction Tomorrow Night)

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset, Weekend Perspective, Weekly Poll Avg — 12 Comments

April 5, 2019

KnessetJeremy Schedule:

Friday Afternoon: I posted the last Weekly Average which you can find below. Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.

Saturday Night: I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.

Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.

Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.

Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.

Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.

Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).

Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.

April-May-June: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government which I predict will take place on the first week of June.

Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday April 6 2019.

The original post went out Friday afternoon. This updated version includes the last poll which was aired on Friday night. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.

Place	Party	Leader	Seats	KnessetJeremy AVG	Change	Week 14 AVG	Current
1st	Blue & White	Gantz	30	29.7	-0.8	30.5	11
2nd	Likud	Netanyahu	29	28.3	-0.4	28.7	29
3rd	Labor	Gabbai	10	9.7	0.6	9.1	18
4th	Hadash-Taal	Odeh	8	7	-0.2	7.2	6
5th	United Torah Judaism	Litzman	7	6.5	-0.1	6.6	6
6th	United Right List	Peretz	7	6.1	0	6.1	5
7th	HaYamin HeHadash	Bennett	6	5.7	-0.2	5.9	3
8th	Meretz	Zandberg	6	5.6	0.5	5.1	5
9th	Shas	Deri	6	5.3	-0.1	5.4	7
10th	Zehut	Feiglin	6	5.3	0.2	5.1	0
11th	Kulanu	Kahlon	5	4.6	0.5	4.1	10
12th	Yisrael Beitenu	Liberman	0	3	0.5	2.5	5
13th	Raam-Balad	Abbas	0	2.9	0	2.9	7
14th	Other	27 Others	0	0.3	-0.5	0.8	8
	Right-Religious Bloc		66	64.8	0.4	64.4	66
	Center-Left-Arab Bloc		54	55.2	-0.4	55.6	54

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 14 polls that were released from Friday afternoon March 30 to Friday evening April 5 (3 Midgam, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Teleseker & 0 Direct Polls).

Note #3: For a better understanding of how a Prime Minister is elected read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 13 of 14 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 10 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 10 polls and Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 69 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 51.

Note #7: Blue & White is the largest party in 9 of the 14 polls this week, Likud leads Blue & White in 4 polls, and one poll has them both tied.

Note #8: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)

Comment

Maariv Poll: Blue & White 29, Likud 27, Labor 9, UTJ 7, Hadash-Taal 7; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments

Smith conducted a poll of 1097 people with a 3% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Note: This is an additional Smith poll that was published by Maariv this afternoon that was conducted after the Smith poll that was published this morning by Maariv’s sister paper – The Jerusalem Post.

Comment

103 FM Radio Poll: Blue & White 31, Likud 28, Labor 9, 4 tied in 6; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by 103 FM Radido on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Comment

Jerusalem Post Poll: Blue & White 28, Likud 27, Labor 9, 4 tied at 6; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 3 Comments

Smith conducted a poll of 1097 people with a 3% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Comment

Yediot Poll: Blue & White 30, Likud 26, Labor 11, UTJ 7, Hadash-Taal 7; Right-Religious Bloc 63

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Midgam conducted a poll of 1,023 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Yediot Achoronot on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
26 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 32% Gantz, 27% Don’t know

Who do you want to be Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 29% Don’t know

Who will be the Prime Minister?

58% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 21% Don’t know

Comment

Yisrael HaYom & I24 News Poll: Blue & White 32, Likud 27, Labor 10, UTJ 8, Meretz 8; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 4 Comments

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 1002 people with a 3.1% margin of error that was first published by Yisrael HaYom on April 5 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

00 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
00 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who will form the next government?

52% Netanyahu, 27% Gantz, 21% Don’t know

Who do you usually vote for?

28% Don’t know, 27% Center, 26% Right, 19% Left

How would you define the current election campaign?

69% Dirty, 14% Violent, 12% Fair, 5% Suitable

What is the main factor that influences your vote?

31% Party platform, 26% Party leader, 17% Other answers, 16% MK list, 6% My family, 4% Past voting pattern

Do you support a national unity government?

46% No, 31% Yes, 33% Don’t know

Level of confidence that voter will not change their vote:

77% Labor, 76% United Right List, 72% Blue & White, 71% UTJ, 70% Likud, 64% Yisrael Beitenu, 63% HaYamin HeHadash, 63% Shas, 60% Kulanu, 54% Zehut, 50% Balad-Raam, 48% Meretz, 47% Hadash-Taal

On the following issues, who do you think will do a better job?

Security: 40% Netanyahu, 40% Gantz, 20% Don’t know
Economy: 40% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 24% Don’t know
Social: 45% Gantz, 28% Don’t know, 27% Netanyahu

Comment

Channel 12 Poll: Blue & White 30, Likud 26, Labor 10, UTJ 7, Hadash-Taal 7; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Midgam conducted a poll of 1290 people with a 2.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on April 4 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
26 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 18% Neither, 11% Don’t know

Who will be the next Prime Minister?

58% Netanyahu, 21% Gantz, 17% Don’t know, 4% Neither

Do you support a national unity government after the election?

37% Yes, 37% Don’t know, 26% No

Comment

Channel 11 Poll: Likud 31, Blue & White 30, Labor 8, Hadash-Taal 8, 5 tied at 6; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Teleseker conducted a poll of 1295 people with a 2.5% margin of error that was published by Channel 11 on April 4 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.9% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.4% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
1.0% [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)

Under 1%:

00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions

Scenario Poll – If Lapid gives up rotation agreement:

Blue & White goes gains 3 seats.
Likud, Meretz & Zehut lose a seat each.

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

44% Netanyahu, 35% Gantz, 21% Don’t know

Comment

Haaretz Poll: Likud 30, Blue & White 27, Labor 10, Hadash-Taal 7, URL 7; Right-Religious Bloc 67

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment

April 3, 2019

Dialog conducted a poll of 1002 people with a 3.2% margin of error that was published by Haaretz on April 3 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
27 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.8% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%:

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

67 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
53 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Comment

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Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Category: Knesset

Channel 13 Poll (Last Poll before Election aired last night): Likud 28, Blue & White 28, Labor 11, URL 7, 4 tied at 6; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Final 2019 Knesset Jeremy Poll of Polls: Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: Blue & White 29.7, Likud 28.3, Labor 9.7, Hadash-Taal 7, UTJ 6.5; Right-Religious Bloc 64.8; (Final Prediction Tomorrow Night)

Maariv Poll: Blue & White 29, Likud 27, Labor 9, UTJ 7, Hadash-Taal 7; Right-Religious Bloc 66

103 FM Radio Poll: Blue & White 31, Likud 28, Labor 9, 4 tied in 6; Right-Religious Bloc 66

Jerusalem Post Poll: Blue & White 28, Likud 27, Labor 9, 4 tied at 6; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Yediot Poll: Blue & White 30, Likud 26, Labor 11, UTJ 7, Hadash-Taal 7; Right-Religious Bloc 63

Yisrael HaYom & I24 News Poll: Blue & White 32, Likud 27, Labor 10, UTJ 8, Meretz 8; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Channel 12 Poll: Blue & White 30, Likud 26, Labor 10, UTJ 7, Hadash-Taal 7; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Channel 11 Poll: Likud 31, Blue & White 30, Labor 8, Hadash-Taal 8, 5 tied at 6; Right-Religious Bloc 64

Haaretz Poll: Likud 30, Blue & White 27, Labor 10, Hadash-Taal 7, URL 7; Right-Religious Bloc 67

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