Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Issue Trends

Across all five polls from last week, one pattern is now unmistakable: Naftali Bennett has consolidated the opposition lane, while the rest of the opposition field continues to fragment.

In the four mainstream pollsters (Maariv, Channel 12, Channel 13, Zman Yisrael), Bennett is either tied with Likud or running within striking distance. His party ranges from 21 to 24 seats, while Likud ranges from 25 to 28. This is not the pattern of a dominant incumbent, rather it is the pattern of a contested leadership race.

Channel 14 stands apart, giving Likud 35 and Bennett just 13, but that poll is the outlier rather than the trend. In the other four polls, Bennett is effectively the alternative prime minister in waiting.

This is reinforced by the only leadership question asked this week. In Channel 14’s suitability question, Netanyahu leads with 53%, but Bennett is second at 26%, more than double Eisenkot and far ahead of Lapid, Lieberman, or Gantz. Even in a right-leaning sample, Bennett is the only opposition figure who registers as a serious governing option.

The issue environment is also turning sharply negative for the coalition. In Maariv, 68% of Israelis fear political violence before the next election. That is not a sign of political stability, it is a warning that the public sees polarization spiraling out of control.

Meanwhile, in Channel 13, 39% of Israelis say their economic situation has worsened, compared to just 10% who say it improved. This creates exactly the kind of climate in which incumbents struggle and challengers gain traction.

One of the most politically potent data points this week is the soldiers’ benefits question from Channel 13. When asked which camp would better protect the rights of regular soldiers and reservists, 46% of the public chose the Bennett-led opposition versus just 32% for the Netanyahu-led coalition. Among respondents with an opinion, the margin widens dramatically to 58%–42% in Bennett’s favor. This is not a marginal issue: in the middle of a prolonged war and a reserve-duty crisis, this cuts directly into the coalition’s traditional advantage on security. The fact that voters now associate Bennett and the opposition, not the government, with better treatment of those serving is a warning sign for the coalition and a strategic opening for Bennett’s camp.

Bloc Trends

The bloc numbers tell a story of two rival governing coalitions, both hovering around the 61-seat line. Four of the five polls show a remarkably tight picture: Netanyahu’s bloc stuck in the low-50s, Bennett’s bloc sitting in the high-50s.

The coalition is no longer expanding. Likud is stable but capped, and the ultra-Orthodox parties are already near saturation. Even Otzma Yehudit’s gains simply reshuffle seats within the bloc rather than creating new ones.

By contrast, Bennett’s bloc is structurally broader. It contains the entire secular center-left (Yesh Atid, Democrats, Yashar), and a growing national-liberal right (Bennett and Yisrael Beitenu). This gives Bennett more coalition arithmetic paths than Netanyahu.

Eyes on the Threshold

This election will almost certainly be decided below the 3.25% line. Four parties are floating dangerously close to extinction.

This matters because every wasted right-wing vote hurt Netanyahu twice. If Smotrich or an additional party like Noam runs and fails, those votes disappear entirely, shrinking the bloc even if Likud remains strong.

On the Arab side, Balad remains a spoiler. If it runs and fails, the Arab bloc drops below 10. If it withdraws or merges, the Arab parties consolidate and that directly strengthens their blocking majority.

The opposition has mostly stabilized above the threshold with the exception of Hendel’s party who is widely expected to merge or drop out before the final party lists are submitted, six weeks before the election date.

What to Expect Next

Unless something dramatic changes, the campaign is heading toward a binary referendum: Netanyahu vs Bennett, with everyone else reduced to bloc math.

Bennett is now running not as a protest candidate, but as a government-in-waiting. He leads the opposition in seats, he leads it in coalition arithmetic, and he leads it in perceived competence on security and reservist issues.

Netanyahu still has the largest single party, but his bloc is capped, brittle, and hostage to threshold failures.

The next phase of the race will revolve around three things: Whether Bennett can keep pulling soft Likud voters as economic and security anxiety rises, whether Smotrich & others splinter wasted votes, and whether the Arab parties are able to pull together a merger into a joint list.

Poll	Broadcaster/ Publisher	Pollster	Field Dates	Sample	Margin of Error
1	Maariv	Lazar / Panels	7–8 Jan 2026	503	4.4%
2	Channel 12	Midgam	8 Jan 2026	503	4.4%
3	Channel 13	Maagar Mochot	7 Jan 2026	569	4.1%
4	Zman Yisrael	Tatika	7–8 Jan 2026	500	4.4%
5	Channel 14	Filber	8 Jan 2026	506	Not reported

Party	Maariv	Channel 12	Channel 13	Zman Yisrael	Channel 14
Likud (Netanyhau)	27	25	26	28	35
Bennett 2026	22	21	24	21	13
Shas (Deri)	8	8	10	10	11
Democrats (Golan)	10	12	10	9	8
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	9	8	8	10	9
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	9	8	10	7	7
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	8	9	7	10	6
Yashar (Eisenkot)	10	8	8	6	8
United Torah Judaism	7	7	7	8	9
Ra’am (Abbas)	5	5	5	6	5
Hadash–Ta’al	5	5	5	5	5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	2.2%	4	2.7%	0	4
Balad	1.8%	1.6%	2.7%	0	2.1%
Blue & White (Gantz)	2.2%	0.6%	2.7%	0	1.4%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)	2.7%	2.5%	1.9%	0	—
Bloc Totals
Bennett Bloc	59	58	57	56	44
Netanyahu Bloc	51	52	53	53	66
Arab Bloc	10	10	10	11	10

Fear of Political Violence Before the Next Election (Maariv)
Response	Coalition Voters	Opposition Voters	Undecided	Total
Worried	64%	75%	60%	68%
Not worried	30%	21%	25%	25%
Don’t know	7%	4%	15%	7%
Who Will Better Protect Soldiers’ Rights? (Channel 13)
Response	General Sample	Opinion Holders
Bennett-led Opposition	46%	58%
Netanyahu-led Coalition	32%	42%
Don’t know	22%	—
Personal Economic Situation (Channel 13)
Response	General Sample	Opinion Holders
Improved	10%	10%
Worsened	37%	39%
Stayed the same	49%	51%
Don’t know	4%	—
Suitability for Prime Minister (Channel 14)
Candidate	Support
Benjamin Netanyahu	53%
Naftali Bennett	26%
Gadi Eisenkot	12%
Yair Lapid	4%
Avigdor Lieberman	4%
Benny Gantz	1%

Issue Trends

Bennett continues to emerge as the principal alternative to Netanyahu in both head-to-head and multi-candidate polling. In the Channel 12 survey, both Lapid and Eizenkot record matchups in which the combined share of respondents selecting “neither candidate” or “don’t know” exceeds their individual support against Netanyahu, underscoring their continued difficulty in consolidating opposition voters.

The fallout from revelations of alleged betrayal within Netanyahu’s office, following reports that senior advisers received funds from Qatar, has remained a dominant media issue. The Walla poll finds that 50% of Israelis agree that advisers promoting Qatari interests during wartime constitutes an act of betrayal. Agreement rises to over 70% among opposition voters, while standing at around 30% among coalition voters.

Bloc Trends

The Netanyahu Bloc posts a particularly strong showing in the Channel 14 poll, reaching 66 seats, compared with 49–52 seats in the other five polls published or broadcast this week. The Bennett Bloc peaks at 61 seats in the Walla poll in contrast to 44 seats in the Channel 14 survey. The remaining four polls cluster closer to the Walla result, placing the Bennett Bloc in the 57–59 seat range.

Shas’s 11-seat result in the Channel 14 poll and the Democrats’ 11 seats in the Channel 12 poll are the only instances this week in which a party other than Likud or Bennett exceeds ten seats.

Eyes on the Threshold

Hendel clears the electoral threshold in two polls, while Smotrich does so in only one survey (Channel 14). As in recent weeks, Balad and Blue and White (Gantz) fail to cross the threshold in any poll.

What to Expect Next

With the calendar turning, Israel has now entered 2026, an election year. Fewer than 300 days remain until the scheduled election on 27 October 2026. Ongoing Knesset deliberations over the state budget in the Appropriations Committee and the coalition’s draft legislation on military service in the Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee remain potential flashpoints that could precipitate an early election.

Poll	Broadcaster / Publisher	Pollster	Fieldwork Date	Sample Size	Margin of Error
Poll 1	Walla	Lazar / Panels	28 Dec 2025	500	±4.3%
Poll 2	Channel 12	Midgam	1 Jan 2026	507	±4.4%
Poll 3	Channel 11	Kantar	28 Dec 2025	N/A	N/A
Poll 4	Maariv	Lazar / Panels	1 Jan 2026	500	±4.4%
Poll 5	Zman Yisrael	Tatika	31 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026	500	±4.4%
Poll 6	Channel 14	Filber	1 Jan 2026	736	N/A

Party / Bloc	Walla	Channel 12	Channel 11	Maariv	Zman Yisrael	Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)	25	26	25	27	28	35
Bennett 2026	20	21	20	19	22	11
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)	9	9	9	10	10	9
Shas (Deri)	9	9	10	8	10	11
Democrats (Golan)	9	11	9	10	8	10
Yashar (Eizenkot)	10	8	9	10	7	8
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	9	10	8	9	10	6
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	8	9	9	10	6	7
United Torah Judaism	7	7	7	7	8	8
Ra’am (Abbas)	6	5	5	5	6	5
Hadash–Ta’al	4	5	5	5	5	5
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	2.2%	2.9%	2.1%	2.8%	0	5
Miluimnikim (Hendel)	4	2.7%	4	3%	0	—
Balad	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	2%	0	2.1%
Blue & White (Gantz)	2%	2%	2.8%	2%	0	0.9%
Bennett Bloc	61	59	59	58	57	44
Netanyahu Bloc	49	51	51	52	52	66
Arab Bloc	10	10	10	10	11	10

Poll	Question	Findings
Lazar/Panels	Do you agree that Netanyahu advisers promoting Qatari interests during the war constitutes an act of betrayal?	50% of Israelis agree. Among opposition voters, agreement exceeds 70%; among coalition voters it is around 30%.
Midgam	Suitability for Prime Minister: Netanyahu vs. Bennett	Netanyahu 42%, Bennett 34%, Neither 19%, Don’t know 5%.
Midgam	Suitability for Prime Minister: Netanyahu vs. Lapid	Netanyahu 45%, Neither/Don’t know 33%, Lapid 22%.
Midgam	Suitability for Prime Minister: Netanyahu vs. Eizenkot	Netanyahu 41%, Neither/Don’t know 31%, Eizenkot 28%.
Filber	Suitability for Prime Minister (multi-candidate question)	Netanyahu 54%, Bennett 23%, Eizenkot 12%, Lapid 5%, Lieberman 5%, Gantz 1%.

A Leader with Cross Bloc Credibility

Naftali Bennett performs competitively against Benjamin Netanyahu on most leadership metrics across the general sample in this special election poll for Channel 12, conducted by Midgam, which also takes a deep dive into Bennett voters.

Bennett is perceived as more trustworthy, more attentive to “people like me,” and better suited to addressing social divisions and the cost of living. Netanyahu maintains an advantage on national security and a narrow edge on the question of who would perform better as prime minister, but these gaps are smaller than those seen in previous election cycles.

This balance helps explain Bennett’s ability to draw support from voters who do not share a single ideological home. Among his voters, however, the picture is clearer: over 70% self-identify as right or center right, with the remainder clustering in the center. There is virtually no left-wing identification within his electorate. Bennett’s appeal, then, is not post-ideological. It is firmly right, but with softer edges than the traditional right-wing bloc.

Taken together, the data suggest that Bennett’s strength lies less in ideological alignment and more in personal positioning. He is seen as an empathetic competent, pragmatic, and comparatively unifying, natural leader that can pull votes from both blocs.

Bennett vs Netanyahu Deep Dive Polling Data

Pollster: Midgam for Channel 12
Fieldwork: December 16–17, 2025
Sample size: 505 respondents + boosted sample of 302 Bennett voters
Margin of error: ±4.4% (general), ±5.7% (Bennett voters)

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Question 1: Bennett’s Performance as Prime Minister

Rating	General Sample	Coalition Voters	Opposition Voters	Identify as Right	Identify as Center–Left	Intend to Vote Bennett
Very good	11%	4%	19%	9%	15%	33%
Fairly good	36%	18%	61%	28%	51%	61%
Total good	47%	22%	80%	37%	66%	94%
Fairly bad	20%	27%	13%	23%	12%	3%
Very bad	26%	47%	2%	34%	12%	2%
Total bad	46%	74%	15%	57%	24%	5%
Don’t know	7%	4%	5%	6%	10%	1%

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Question 2: Bennett vs. Netanyahu

Summary: Bennett vs. Netanyahu

Criterion	Naftali Bennett	Benjamin Netanyahu	Don’t know
More trustworthy	46%	37%	17%
Will better care for people like me	41%	28%	31%
Will better ensure national security	38%	40%	22%
Will better handle the economy and cost of living	45%	30%	25%
Will better address internal social divisions	47%	26%	27%
Would perform better as Prime Minister	40%	44%	16%

Who is more trustworthy?

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Naftali Bennett	46%	19%	79%	33%	72%	96%
Benjamin Netanyahu	37%	71%	5%	53%	9%	2%
Don’t know	17%	10%	16%	14%	19%	2%

Who will better care for people like me?

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Bennett	41%	17%	71%	31%	61%	93%
Netanyahu	28%	56%	5%	41%	8%	1%
Don’t know	31%	27%	24%	28%	31%	6%

Who will better ensure national security?

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Bennett	38%	13%	71%	26%	62%	82%
Netanyahu	40%	73%	10%	58%	12%	12%
Don’t know	22%	14%	19%	16%	26%	6%

Who will better handle the economy and cost of living?

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Bennett	45%	19%	77%	33%	69%	90%
Netanyahu	30%	59%	6%	43%	10%	5%
Don’t know	25%	22%	17%	24%	21%	5%

Who will better address internal social divisions?

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Bennett	47%	22%	76%	35%	71%	93%
Netanyahu	26%	50%	5%	37%	8%	1%
Don’t know	27%	28%	19%	28%	21%	6%

Who would perform better as Prime Minister?

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Bennett	40%	12%	74%	24%	70%	81%
Netanyahu	44%	81%	10%	63%	12%	11%
Don’t know	16%	7%	16%	13%	18%	8%

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Question 3: Political Scenarios and Bennett

Summary – General Sample: Political Scenarios and Bennett

Scenario	Total Strengthen	Total Weaken	No Change	Don’t Know
Running with Gadi Eisenkot and the “Yeshar” party	37%	21%	31%	11%
Running with Yoaz Hendel and the Reservists Party	33%	22%	33%	12%
Running with Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)	33%	28%	30%	9%
Ruling out sitting in a government with Netanyahu	32%	30%	27%	11%
Running with Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid)	29%	32%	29%	10%
Agreeing to form a government with Netanyahu	23%	41%	25%	11%
Government with Ra’am support or abstention (Mansour Abbas)	20%	39%	28%	13%
Ayelet Shaked joins party leadership	19%	35%	34%	12%

Running with Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar)

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very strengthen	18%	8%	33%	11%	30%	42%
Somewhat strengthen	19%	10%	31%	16%	27%	31%
Somewhat weaken	7%	7%	7%	7%	4%	9%
Very weaken	14%	24%	4%	18%	8%	2%
No change	31%	40%	19%	37%	21%	10%
Don’t know	11%	11%	6%	11%	10%	6%

Running together with Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very much strengthen	12%	6%	20%	7%	21%	22%
Somewhat strengthen	17%	5%	30%	10%	31%	26%
Somewhat weaken	7%	7%	10%	10%	3%	19%
Very much weaken	25%	41%	10%	34%	9%	16%
No change	29%	33%	25%	31%	28%	13%
Don’t know	10%	8%	5%	8%	8%	4%

Running together with Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very much strengthen	15%	8%	26%	16%	15%	33%
Somewhat strengthen	18%	11%	25%	16%	18%	33%
Somewhat weaken	10%	10%	9%	8%	10%	12%
Very much weaken	18%	27%	9%	22%	18%	6%
No change	30%	36%	23%	30%	30%	13%
Don’t know	9%	8%	8%	8%	9%	3%

Ayelet Shaked joins the party leadership

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very much strengthen	6%	8%	6%	7%	6%	12%
Somewhat strengthen	13%	14%	14%	15%	13%	26%
Somewhat weaken	14%	8%	21%	9%	14%	16%
Very much weaken	21%	20%	22%	21%	21%	15%
No change	34%	41%	29%	37%	34%	19%
Don’t know	12%	9%	8%	11%	12%	12%

Running together with Yoaz Hendel and the Reservists Party

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very much strengthen	15%	11%	23%	13%	15%	33%
Somewhat strengthen	18%	11%	27%	14%	17%	37%
Somewhat weaken	7%	5%	11%	6%	7%	8%
Very much weaken	15%	18%	7%	16%	15%	2%
No change	33%	42%	23%	38%	33%	11%
Don’t know	12%	13%	9%	13%	13%	9%

Forming a government with support or abstention by Ra’am (Mansour Abbas)

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very much strengthen	11%	7%	17%	8%	11%	10%
Somewhat strengthen	9%	4%	16%	5%	9%	16%
Somewhat weaken	9%	8%	12%	8%	9%	20%
Very much weaken	30%	40%	22%	39%	30%	29%
No change	28%	31%	23%	27%	28%	13%
Don’t know	13%	10%	10%	13%	13%	12%

Agreeing to form a government with Benjamin Netanyahu

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very much strengthen	8%	15%	3%	11%	8%	6%
Somewhat strengthen	15%	23%	4%	20%	15%	10%
Somewhat weaken	9%	8%	13%	10%	9%	18%
Very much weaken	32%	9%	61%	18%	32%	45%
No change	25%	36%	12%	31%	25%	14%
Don’t know	11%	9%	7%	10%	11%	7%

Ruling out sitting in a government with Benjamin Netanyahu

Response	General	Coalition	Opposition	Right	Center–Left	Bennett Voters
Very much strengthen	18%	5%	32%	10%	18%	33%
Somewhat strengthen	14%	8%	23%	13%	14%	24%
Somewhat weaken	9%	10%	9%	9%	8%	16%
Very much weaken	21%	32%	11%	27%	21%	6%
No change	27%	36%	19%	31%	28%	14%
Don’t know	11%	9%	6%	10%	11%	7%

Question 4: Perceived ideology of Bennett

Ideological Position	General Sample	Coalition Voters	Opposition Voters	Identify as Right	Identify as Center–Left	Intend to Vote Bennett (incl. boost)
Far right	5%	6%	5%	5%	4%	3%
Right	31%	24%	42%	35%	26%	44%
Center-right	19%	17%	24%	22%	16%	40%
Total right-wing	55%	47%	71%	62%	46%	87%
Center	13%	10%	18%	9%	23%	11%
Center-left	12%	19%	6%	13%	11%	1%
Left	8%	9%	3%	7%	11%	1%
Far left	6%	10%	0%	7%	6%	0%
Total center–left	39%	48%	27%	36%	51%	13%
Don’t know	6%	5%	2%	2%	3%	0%

Question 5: Bennett Voters

Certainty of voting for Bennett

Response	Percent
Absolutely certain	31%
Fairly certain	57%
Still undecided	12%

Main reason for supporting Bennett

Reason	Percent
No better alternative	50%
Bennett is the right choice	33%
Only one who can defeat Netanyahu	16%
Don’t know	1%

Self-Identified Ideological Position (Bennett Voters)

Ideological Position	Percent
Far right	3%
Right	32%
Center-right	36%
Total right-wing	71%
Center	23%
Center-left	6%
Left	0%
Far left	0%
Total center–left	29%
Refused	0%

Vote in November 1, 2022 election

Party	Percent
National Unity (Gantz)	36%
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	26%
Likud (Netanyahu)	13%
Religious Zionism / Otzma Yehudit (Smotrich/Ben Gvir)	6%
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)	6%
Jewish Home (Ayelet Shaked)	5%
Labor	1%
UTJ	1%
Meretz	1%
Other	1%
Did not vote (no right)	2%
Did not vote (had right)	2%