Jeremy's Knesset Insider

This week, the Knesset returned from its summer recess and opened its fourth year of work. The coalition faces several major challenges in the Winter Session, including resolving the Haredi Draft Bill, passing a state budget, and advancing legislation to split the powers of the Attorney General.

The Opposition will note on Monday that while the Knesset will officially mark one year before the scheduled elections on 27 October 2026, it appears unlikely that the government will last that long. The question remains not if, but when the coalition will fall.

With Yossi Cohen dropping out and Yoaz Hendel officially announcing his candidacy, scenario polling has shifted to several potential developments: the possible resurrection of the Joint Arab List, a renewed Smotrich–Ben Gvir alliance, and a large-scale opposition merger. Filber and Direct Polls continue to show the coalition with a clear majority, while other pollsters show the opposition ahead but still short of a majority. Since the Eisenkot–Gantz split, the Arab parties have consistently held the balance of power in most polls.

In head-to-head matchups, Bennett remains Netanyahu’s main challenger. Among coalition voters, Bennett is also viewed as the preferred candidate to lead the bloc against Netanyahu. Gantz failed to cross the electoral threshold in five of the six polls, while Hendel’s Miluimnikim party did not pass in any of the five polls that included it and was omitted entirely from one.

#	Source / Commissioned by	Pollster	Date(s)	Sample Size	Margin of Error	Blocs (Netanyahu / Bennett / Arab)
1	i24NEWS	Direct Polls	19 Oct 2025	519	±4.4%	63 / 46 / 11
2	Israel Hayom	Kantar	22–23 Oct 2025	601	±4.1%	51 / 59 / 10
3	Channel 12	Midgam	23 Oct 2025	501	±4.4%	51 / 59 / 10
3.5	Channel 12	Midgam	23 Oct 2025	501	±4.4%	(PM Suitability Poll)
4	Channel 14	Filber	23 Oct 2025	486	N/A	66 / 44 / 10
5	Zman Yisrael	Tatika	22–23 Oct 2025	404	±4.8%	57 / 53 / 10
6	Maariv	Lazar / Panels	22–23 Oct 2025	500	±4.4%	50 / 59 / 11

Party	Direct Polls	Kantar	Midgam	Filber	Tatika	Lazar
Likud (Netanyahu)	34	28	27	36	31	26
Bennett 2026	17	21	21	11	18	19
Shas (Deri)	10	9	9	11	10	9
Democrats (Golan)	10	11	13	12	9	12
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	9	10	9	9	10	10
Yashar (Eisenkot)	6	10	7	7	5	9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	4	9	9	5	7	9
UTJ	8	7	7	8	7	7
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	6	7	8	7	5	8
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	5	2.8%	2.1%	4	4	2.6%
Ra’am (Abbas)	6	5	5	5	5	5
Hadash–Ta’al	5	5	5	5	5	6
Balad	2.6%	2.4%	1.4%	2.3%	0	2.2%
Miluimnikim/Reservists (Hendel)	2.5%	2.3%	1.6%	–	0	2.1%
Blue & White (Gantz)	1.2%	3.1%	2.2%	2.4%	4	2.9%
Blocs (Netanyahu / Bennett / Arab)	63 / 46 / 11	51 / 59 / 10	51 / 59 / 10	66 / 44 / 10	57 / 53 / 10	50 / 59 / 11

Note #1: Percentages indicate below the 3.25% threshold.

Note #2: A Channel 12 scenario poll found that a Joint List of Arab parties would win 11 seats instead of 10, and a joint list of Ben Gvir and Smotrich would win 9 seats instead of 8 for Ben Gvir alone.

Note #3: Another Channel 12 scenario poll showed that an Opposition list combining Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid, Gantz, and Eisenkot would receive 47 seats, compared to 27 for Likud, 12 for the Democrats, 9 for Shas, and 8 for Otzma. The overall bloc balance would remain unchanged.

Note #4: A Maariv scenario poll found that if the Arab parties run together, they would win 12 seats instead of 11. Otzma would also gain one seat, while Likud and Lieberman would each lose one. As a result, the Arab Bloc rises from 11 to 12 seats, and the Bennett Bloc drops from 59 to 58.

Prime Minister Suitability (Midgam/Channel 12)

Matchup	Netanyahu	Opponent	Neither	Don’t Know
vs Bennett	39%	37%	21%	3%
vs Eisenkot	41%	28%	25%	6%
vs Lapid	43%	26%	27%	4%
vs Golan	44%	21%	31%	4%
vs Lieberman	41%	18%	36%	5%
vs Gantz	41%	18%	38%	3%

Coalition Voters – Who Should Lead the Anti-Netanyahu Bloc? (Midgam/Channel 12)

Candidate	%
Bennett	44%
Lapid	16%
Golan	11%
Eisenkot	11%
Lieberman	10%
Someone else / Don’t know	6%
Gantz	2%