Housekeeping Notes:
- This post covers polls conducted between my last update on August 8 and August 26.
- I will post on Sunday covering the period from August 27 to August 31.
- I will then return to my regular schedule starting September 5.
News Recap
- The political crisis continues, with Shas and UTJ still outside the government.
- Aug 10: Leaders of Hadash, Ta’al, Ra’am, and Balad met again in an effort to reestablish a joint Arab Bloc list for the next elections.
- Aug 11: Independent MK Idan Roll, who left Yesh Atid in January, resigned his Knesset seat.
- Aug 13: A second special session plenum was held just before the Knesset silence. On the same day, the Likud Central Committee approved the merger with Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party.
- Aug 15: Reports emerged that Yoaz Hendel has begun registering his Miluim (Reservist) Party and has hired strategist Aron Shaviv.
- Aug 19: The government approved an additional 31 billion shekels for war expenses and cut future 2026 spending by 3.35%.
- Aug 23: Benny Gantz offered to bring his Blue & White party into the government if it would lead to a hostage release deal and an end to the Gaza war.
- Aug 26: Former Mossad head Yossi Cohen hinted in an interview that he plans to run in the 2026 elections.
How It Played Out In The Polls
- In most polls, Likud remains the largest party, while Bennett leads the largest bloc.
- In many surveys, Benny Gantz’s Blue & White party fails to pass the electoral threshold.
- Smotrich passes the threshold in all polls during this period, boosting the Netanyahu bloc’s numbers.
- This week the Bennett bloc performed best in scenarios where Eisenkot does not run alone and/or the Miluim Party crosses the threshold with five seats.
What to Expect Next
- Knesset Silence: Committee meetings will resume in the middle of next week, but the Knesset will remain in recess mode until the opening session on October 20, 2025.
- Election Year – 2026: If the coalition crisis remains unresolved, discussions may arise about moving up the elections from the scheduled date of October 27, 2026. The earliest possible date is in January, though a more likely scenario would be sometime between January and October.
- Gaza War & Haredi Draft: The Knesset and government are expected to continue focusing on the two dominant issues of 2025.
| Poll Number | Date & Pollster | Sample Size | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poll 1 | Aug 10 (Kantar) | 554 people | 4.2% |
| Poll 2 | Aug 13 (Takiata) | 404 people | 4.8% |
| Poll 3 | Aug 14 (Filber) | 639 people | Not provided |
| Poll 4 | Aug 13-14 (Panels/Lazar) | 502 people | 4.4% |
| Poll 5 | Aug 17 (Midgam) | 505 people | 4.4% |
| Poll 6 | Aug 20 (Direct Polls) | 542 people | 4.1% |
| Poll 7 | Aug 20-21 (Takiata) | 404 people | 4.8% |
| Poll 8 | Aug 21 (Filber) | 524 people | Not provided |
| Poll 9 | Aug 20-21 (Lazar/Panels) | 509 people | 4.4% |
Seats and Blocs
| Date & Pollster | Party Results | Bennett Bloc | Netanyahu Bloc | Arab Bloc |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10 (Kantar) | Likud: 26, Bennett: 22, Yisrael Beiteinu: 10, Shas: 9, The Democrats: 8, Eizenkot: 7, Yesh Atid: 6, Ra’am: 6, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Blue and White: 4, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Balad 2.1% | 57 | 52 | 11 |
| Aug 13 (Takiata) | Likud: 28, Bennett: 25, Yisrael Beiteinu: 10, Shas: 10, The Democrats: 9, Yesh Atid: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 5, Ra’am: 5, Religious Zionism: 5, Blue and White: 4, Hadash-Ta’al: 4. Below threshold: Balad | 56 | 55 | 9 |
| Aug 14 (Filber) | Likud: 33, Bennett: 17, Shas: 11, The Democrats: 10, Yisrael Beiteinu: 8, United Torah Judaism: 8, Yesh Atid: 8, Otzma Yehudit: 6, Religious Zionism: 5, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Ra’am: 5, Blue and White: 4. Below threshold: Balad 2.2% | 47 | 63 | 10 |
| Aug 13-14 (Panels/Lazar) | Option A: Bennett: 24, Likud: 23, Yisrael Beiteinu: 12, The Democrats: 10, Yesh Atid: 9, Shas: 9, United Torah Judaism: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 7, Ra’am: 5, Blue and White: 5, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Balad Option B: Likud: 23, Bennett: 21, The Democrats: 10, Eizenkot: 9, Shas: 9, Yisrael Beiteinu: 9, United Torah Judaism: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 7, Yesh Atid: 6, Ra’am: 5, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Blue and White: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Balad 2.2% | 60 | 50 | 10 |
| Aug 17 (Midgam) | Option A: Likud: 24, Bennett: 20, Eizenkot: 12, The Democrats: 11, Yisrael Beiteinu: 11, Shas: 8, Yesh Atid: 7, United Torah Judaism: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 6, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Ra’am: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Blue and White 2.9%, Balad 1.9% Option B: Likud: 24, Bennett: 21, Yesh Atid & Eizenkot: 17, The Democrats: 12, Yisrael Beiteinu: 11, Shas: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 6, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Ra’am: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Blue and White 2.9%, Balad 1.9% Option C: Bennett: 29, Likud: 24, Yisrael Beiteinu: 12, The Democrats: 12, Shas: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 7, Yesh Atid: 7, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Ra’am: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Blue and White 2.8%, Balad 1.9% Option D: Likud: 23, Bennett: 19, The Democrats: 11, Yisrael Beiteinu: 10, Eizenkot: 10, Shas: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Yesh Atid: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 6, Ra’am: 5, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Miluim: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Blue and White 2.7%, Balad 1.9% | 61–62 | 48–49 | 10 |
| Aug 20 (Direct Polls) | Likud: 28, Bennett: 19, The Democrats: 13, Shas: 10, Otzma Yehudit: 9, Yisrael Beiteinu: 9, United Torah Judaism: 8, Religious Zionism: 6, Miluim: 5, Ra’am: 5, Yesh Atid: 4, Hadash-Ta’al: 4. Below threshold: Blue and White 2.4%, Balad 2.9% | 50 | 61 | 9 |
| Aug 20-21 (Takiata) | Likud: 28, Bennett: 26, The Democrats: 11, Yisrael Beiteinu: 11, Shas: 9, United Torah Judaism: 7, Yesh Atid: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 6, Ra’am: 6, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Blue and White, Balad | 55 | 54 | 11 |
| Aug 21 (Filber) | Likud: 34, Bennett: 16, Shas: 11, The Democrats: 10, Yisrael Beiteinu: 8, Yesh Atid: 8, United Torah Judaism: 8, Otzma Yehudit: 7, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Ra’am: 5, Religious Zionism: 4, Blue and White: 4. Below threshold: Balad 2.4% | 46 | 64 | 10 |
| Aug 20-21 (Lazar/Panels) | Option A: Bennett: 23, Likud: 21, The Democrats: 11, Eizenkot: 10, Yisrael Beiteinu: 9, Shas: 8, Yesh Atid: 8, Otzma Yehudit: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Ra’am: 6, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Blue and White 1.9%, Balad 1.4% Option B: Bennett: 26, Likud: 21, The Democrats: 12, Yisrael Beiteinu: 11, Yesh Atid: 10, Shas: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Otzma Yehudit: 7, Ra’am: 5, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Blue and White: 4, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Balad 2.3% Option C: Bennett: 21, Likud: 20, Yisrael Beiteinu: 10, The Democrats: 10, Yesh Atid: 9, Otzma Yehudit: 8, Shas: 8, Eizenkot: 8, United Torah Judaism: 7, Miluim: 5, Hadash-Ta’al: 5, Ra’am: 5, Religious Zionism: 4. Below threshold: Balad 1.4%, Blue and White 1.4% | 61–63 | 47–48 | 10–11 |
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